America West pilots win permanent injunction
07-22-2009 | 03:03 PM
#101
Banned
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
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Crap. I am now convinced that the end is near... I find myself agreeing with eaglefly... Seriously, though, I think you're right -- why enter into a mess of a merger (especially with the new merger laws in place) when you can buy pieces. It makes no sense from a management perspective... Douggie isn't stupid (he may be an impulsive fool, but he isn't dumb). If he allows the airline to continue to fall apart (not just the pilots, but the F/A's are having issues, the customer complaints are high, etc), he won't even have to take the hammer to US. It will break apart itself... He stands to make a lot of money selling it off in pieces (a lot more than a sale to a single buyer).
As for bankruptcy by winter or spring, where do you guys come up with this stuff? Do you just pick arbitrary numbers and dates? There is nothing that points to impending doom. At the present rate they're losing money, US can last another 18-24 months before even being in danger of liquidation (note, I said at present rate of loss). Most non-airline analysts are predicting the beginning of an economic recovery by this Fall or next Spring. That would stretch out US (and UAL for that matter)'s life for a while longer.
And, as for the guys that think Parker will take US in Ch 11 just to get a pilot contract, give me a break. The dangers (and downsides) to a BK filing are pretty severe (as in will they even emerge, what effect will there be on current shareholders -- of which he is one, etc...). If US goes into BK, it will be a while from now and it will be because they are facing destruction -- not just for a contract...
As for whoever asked about the post-merger new hires, yes there are a few of us (although finally, none are left on property). And, I can tell you from my own opinions and those of my buddies hired/ furloughed me, most of us are pretty neutral. As a whole we supported ALPA in the vote (east or west), didn't listen to most of the ramblings in the cockpit, support the Nic (if for no other reason that final and binding should mean final and binding...), but we also understand where the East guys are coming from. They are angry and beaten down. They are frustrated at how they are treated and how their careers have turned out. But, being sympathetic does not we agree with them in trampling the West guys to try and make up for things. I would say that we are just neutral in the whole thing. (Besides, who knows if we will ever get recalled...)
As for bankruptcy by winter or spring, where do you guys come up with this stuff? Do you just pick arbitrary numbers and dates? There is nothing that points to impending doom. At the present rate they're losing money, US can last another 18-24 months before even being in danger of liquidation (note, I said at present rate of loss). Most non-airline analysts are predicting the beginning of an economic recovery by this Fall or next Spring. That would stretch out US (and UAL for that matter)'s life for a while longer.
And, as for the guys that think Parker will take US in Ch 11 just to get a pilot contract, give me a break. The dangers (and downsides) to a BK filing are pretty severe (as in will they even emerge, what effect will there be on current shareholders -- of which he is one, etc...). If US goes into BK, it will be a while from now and it will be because they are facing destruction -- not just for a contract...
As for whoever asked about the post-merger new hires, yes there are a few of us (although finally, none are left on property). And, I can tell you from my own opinions and those of my buddies hired/ furloughed me, most of us are pretty neutral. As a whole we supported ALPA in the vote (east or west), didn't listen to most of the ramblings in the cockpit, support the Nic (if for no other reason that final and binding should mean final and binding...), but we also understand where the East guys are coming from. They are angry and beaten down. They are frustrated at how they are treated and how their careers have turned out. But, being sympathetic does not we agree with them in trampling the West guys to try and make up for things. I would say that we are just neutral in the whole thing. (Besides, who knows if we will ever get recalled...)
Don't tell your friends this..........that would be very bad.
In all seriousness too, I think that anyone out there whose belief is that Parker's plan is to just muddle along for the next 18-24 months in the hope that "things will work out, because the economy will surely improve and then U will be fine" is a tad nieve. Even if the economy improves, U can't survive with the status quo remaining as 2 seperate carriers in perpituity. Even if he can synregize as one very soon, U is still on the ropes.
The industry seems as though it's waiting and searching for a relief valve in the form of one carrier that will liquidate and provide the catalyst that it needs to right-size itself to a healthier size. A liquidation that involves selling assets and shrinking might be enough. It would still mean MANY more pilots of that carrier (perhaps the bottom 40-50%) would be left without a chair and that's not good, but necessary for the industry as a whole. The lack of cohesion COULD put U ahead of UAL in the future. Remember the winter revenue will drop (as usual) significantly and early next spring someone is likely ripe to pop. Many of the carriers have HUGE debt issues maturing early next year as well.......not a good combination. Parker needs to either take this division head on if he plans to save U or just wait until he has the excuse (and financials) to open the bidding.
Again it seems a race (at least NOW) between UAL and U. USAPA's legacy may be that they commited professional seppuku in the name of seniority..........lets hope they can live with that legacy should their actions push U over the brink.
Last edited by eaglefly; 07-22-2009 at 03:19 PM.
07-22-2009 | 09:05 PM
#103
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 1,553
Likes: 26
From: B777/CA retired
There are some debt payments that come due starting next year. I just tossed my 10k statement that was part of the annual report but I believe it was 330 million next year and around 250 mill per year after that for 8 years. That is what most of us are talking about.
Separate operations are not the huge burden you may think. There are pilot issues that relate to the seniority list such as filling of vacancies and displacements, but from a company standpoint you are not losing too much by having, essentally, two different operations under one certificate. We have the same uniforms, the same FOM, and the same maintenance and ground handling but our ops specs for the West are slightly different (we can do more types of approaches than the East and we have 180 minute ETOPS vs 120). Essentially you have East bases doing their thing and West bases doing theirs. The economies of scale are already there in the size of the two operations,.
Will we be split up? Who knows, but it would not be that hard to do. And while mr Walt may wish us to be taken over by Johhny O, we can honestly say that we have worked for the worst major airline in existence. There's reasons Us Air cratered twice, and those reasons are made abundently clear each time we fly through PHL, CLT or BOS.
Separate operations are not the huge burden you may think. There are pilot issues that relate to the seniority list such as filling of vacancies and displacements, but from a company standpoint you are not losing too much by having, essentally, two different operations under one certificate. We have the same uniforms, the same FOM, and the same maintenance and ground handling but our ops specs for the West are slightly different (we can do more types of approaches than the East and we have 180 minute ETOPS vs 120). Essentially you have East bases doing their thing and West bases doing theirs. The economies of scale are already there in the size of the two operations,.
Will we be split up? Who knows, but it would not be that hard to do. And while mr Walt may wish us to be taken over by Johhny O, we can honestly say that we have worked for the worst major airline in existence. There's reasons Us Air cratered twice, and those reasons are made abundently clear each time we fly through PHL, CLT or BOS.
07-23-2009 | 05:34 AM
#104
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 218
Likes: 0
From: Recalled....
In all seriousness too, I think that anyone out there whose belief is that Parker's plan is to just muddle along for the next 18-24 months in the hope that "things will work out, because the economy will surely improve and then U will be fine" is a tad nieve. Even if the economy improves, U can't survive with the status quo remaining as 2 seperate carriers in perpituity. Even if he can synregize as one very soon, U is still on the ropes.
I was just saying that I don't think Parker will cruise into BK just to settle the pilot contract. There are too many negative ramifications... Looking at the numbers, US could just wallow along for the next 2 years frittering away money. Or Parker could make a killing if he can figure out how to sell off the parts. But, the problem with that is who has the money to buy the parts these days? Mesa doesn't have the money. AirTran has expressed "interest" in a West Coast operation, but do they have any money? Southwest could come in and buy the West operation and dismantle it to have a total lock on PHX (like they did with ATA in Midway), but that does no good for the pilots (just ask the ATA guys).
Either way, US is on the ropes and unless we can figure out how to get along (as hokey as that sounds) AND get some real leadership to turn the place around, it will continue to be a slow drive towards the cliff. (I could be wrong, maybe Doug really is a genius and is secretly saving the airline -- all while plotting to take over the world...)
07-23-2009 | 05:57 AM
#105
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 218
Likes: 0
From: Recalled....
You don't happen to remember what those debt payments were for, or who they are to, do you? Those were the numbers I thought, but a buddy of mine pointed out a statement on page 38 of the 10K that says US prepaid 400 million to Citi (370 million after transaction fees), and the "virtually all of the rest" of the 1.6 billion is due in 2014. Now I can't find anything in the 10K about what is due in upcoming years (I'm not referring to the capital lease and interest payments associated with equipment/ facility leasing).
07-23-2009 | 08:21 AM
#107
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 218
Likes: 0
From: Recalled....
Minimum cash (or liquid assets) is $850 million (to Citi), after the $400 million early payoff last year. But, they can pay early until this Fall on a 1-for-1 credit to a max of $100 million (in other words lowering the required cash on hand to $750 instead of the current $850 million).
07-23-2009 | 11:53 AM
#109
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Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
From: A320 F/O
Conference call paints a heck of an optimistic picture.
$700 million in A/C financing
$200 million in raising cash
Look at 8:00 and 30:00 for discussion on EMB-190s going away.
Jamie Baker asks a question about future transactions at 31:00. Says Doug has a record of successful transactions between BK carrier and solvent carrier (Baker's words, not mine) and asks Doug to comment. Doug starts to say that he didn't (as if "didn't know") but stops and says he can't talk about this.
$700 million in A/C financing
$200 million in raising cash
Look at 8:00 and 30:00 for discussion on EMB-190s going away.
Jamie Baker asks a question about future transactions at 31:00. Says Doug has a record of successful transactions between BK carrier and solvent carrier (Baker's words, not mine) and asks Doug to comment. Doug starts to say that he didn't (as if "didn't know") but stops and says he can't talk about this.
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