At this point, I see no incentive for RAH to sell any 175's to Delta. Brian Bedford answers to the share holders and Board of directors. He would not please his overseers if he sold 16 profit generating E175's prior to the completion of the contract they are operating under. There are still some years left on the Shuttle/Delta contract, and to give up guaranteed profit-generating revenue with the industry in its current state would be downright stupid, assuming Bedford wants to keep his job.

Another thing that does not fit well is that by cutting Shuttle America out of the DCI fleet, Mother Delta loses a lot of control over the contract of Compass pilots. Yes, the CRJ 900 can be competitor, and Delta can use those aircraft to still whipsaw the Compass pilots come section 6, but I would think Delta would want to keep a direct competitor around for effect.

I could see Delta wanting to cut 50 seat capacity via reductions at Chautauqua. RAH has already removed and sold or reassigned 15 E-135's that were flying for Delta under the Chautauqua name. Bedford is happy to let the smaller jets go, but he is very defensive of his E170 and larger aircraft. As was stated above, he held onto those ex-F9 170's despite a real bleak outlook on placing them anywhere else.

If Delta wants to cut Shuttle America out, it will either be at the end of the contract, or on terms that are very favorable to RAH. Just selling some 175's to Delta in exchange for Delta selling some Midwest seats is hardly justifiable. Not many of us like Bedford as a person, but we do recognize his business prowess. Rarely does labor benefit from his business plan, but even more rarely does Bedford execute any business deal that creates a loss for his company/ego.

Bedford has a forward thinking plan. It may blow up in his face, but he has not been running scared yet. ExpressJet and Independence/ACA were reactionary deals that followed publicly announced reductions or terminations of contract flying. A contract termination is never immediate, and a company like Delta has no incentive to tell RAH months in advance that they will lose flying...if anything, it would give Bedford too much time to build a solid legal defense to protect his flying.

If you watch what Bedford is doing, he appears to be buying up a comprehensive route structure in the Midwestern US. Assuming both the F9 and YX deals are completed, RAH will have independent hubs in Denver, kansas City, and Milwaukee. Add to that a strong presence in Indianapolis and Columbus (and to some degree St. Loius), and it seems that Bedford is gunning to enter the market at the dominant airline for Midwesterners to fly on. It is a smaller market, and is generally underserved (excluding Chicago) by the rest of the industry. For travelers looking for point to point or delay-free service within the Midwest, RAH will offer a compelling option. For any major carrier that wants to access that market share, a codesharing agreement would be mutually beneficial. This is why I think Bedford has gotten the blessing of his major parnters, and why his actions are not seen as being threatening. The only carriers gunning for MKE are Airtran and Southwest, two airlines that RAH does not have a relationship with. Everyone who deals with RAH is just sitting on the sidelines. By keeping the Shuttle America contract, Delta is quietly funding an (albeit minor) effort to take money away from Airtran and Southwest, two of the more established threats to the legacy carriers. The only bigger worries out there are Allegient and Spirit, but it will be another decade before those two make mainline pilots cry over their beers.

If RAH gets all 25 190's, there will still be RAH pilots on the streets. Don't forget, RAH has more pilots joining it's seniority list in the near future. Anywhere from 0-400+ Midwest pilots will be coming soon, and could easily staff all the Airways 190's. Even then, that would leave about 150 Midwest and 100 RAH pilots on furlough. Then, after what will certainly be a nasty, drawn out process, we may be adding F9 pilots to our list as well. RAH is far from growing to the point it will need to hire.

Bedford selling the 175 to Delta would be like Airways selling its A330's to Lufthansa. They may be connected via Star Alliance, but if there is money to be made off those planes, why would Airways give that up?

You and I aren't as separate in our thinking as communication via teh intarwebs would lead one to believe.

Indeed...

Very well laid out response!

But on the above quote's point:

Would there have been a Midwest Deal (at rock bottom prices!) without Delta (who could have blocked the sell)?

Selling an airline for "chump change" to someone that is clearly going to turn around and not only take away from your profits (even with a code share), but also make you pay them on the side doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

But then again it is the airline industry.

I think that really is something that can only be decided with actual numbers, which of course none of us will ever see. If anything I said was true (and I could be very, very far off base), than I am sure Delta bean counters have determined how much money Delta would lose to Southwest and Airtran if RAH was not in the picture, and how much money they would lose to Southwest and Airtran if RAH was in the picture operating as Midwest. If the amount of money "not lost" to SW and Airtran is greater than the amount paid to RAH, Delta wins.

Don't worry, someone has it all figured out down to the penny...and thereby deserved a six or seven figure bonus for saving said penny.

Yup, down to the penny just like ACA did, until they only had pennies left.

I think everybody is ever so worried. I think the majority here actually want to see RAH go belly up.

I don't want to see them go belly up...I just want to see them stick to being a commuter.

I find it interesting how the E190 deal is tying everything together for Delta pilots, USAirways pilots and even AAI and LUV crews. What we have seen since the early 90's is an explosion of the fee for departure model across the board, except the airlines which have stayed away from it are the only ones which seem to have a defined market and are financially successful. This is not a dig in any way at the regional pilots, however it is a question of economics and more importantly the confilct of interest we are starting to see with operations such as Republic. No matter where you look, I believe you would have a hard time finding the same business model we see between the regionals and their life line a.k.a. the majors. Our system in the airlines would be similar to Delphi building parts for GM and then turning around building/ selling their own cars at a dealership right across the street from a GM dealer. As another poster stated "only in the airlines".
Because of the high fuel prices, the success of airlines without regional jets and the absence of the business traveler, it is becoming more difficult to see how the RJ can add to the bottom line of an airline. I have always felt they were a liability, however perhaps in the 90's they were able to retain the business traveler in-house leading to better or more frequent ticket purchases thus justifying their existence. Now, with the economy the way it is, I think that model is long gone. Throw in the apparent conflict of interest we are starting to see with RAH and other regionals it seem the fee for service contract flying isn't a viable business plan.
This E190 debate is really turning up some interesting points and that is what I like about this message board.

Only those with myopic, selfish industry and world views would want that.

After all, you'd personally stand to gain NOTHING if RAH ceased to exist, would you?

A job at a major down the road?

Yeah, and Republic will be the sole reason your dream isn't attained...

You work at Air Wisconsin, right?

If the Amigos inked a deal for CR9s to fly in the UAX system under the B146 Exemption of UAL-ALPA scope, would you refuse to fly them?