5,421 active cards.

Carl

 

Ok, I believe you. (Plus, I don't have any evidence to dispute your number.)

Now, how many of those will 'vote for the DPA', if a representational change came to vote?

Honest question. No condescension, name calling, or insults.

For example purposes, lets say that 90% of those who submitted a card, will vote in favor of DPA representation. (Assuming 10%, who are keeping their cards active to 'wake up' D-ALPA.) Your organization will need to garner 1,054 cards. Math computations below:

Nov. Seniority List: 11653
Majority of Sen. List: 11653/2 = 5827
90% of Cards to reach Majority: 6475(90%) = 5827.5

6475 CARDS needed to produce 5827 VOTES equals an additional 1,054 cards!!

Do you think that's possible Carl? Or DAL 88 Driver? If so, when? Before our next Section 6 negotiations? Or 'DURING' our negotiations, like last time?

Thanks,

GJ

 

Your question regarding the percentage of card-submitters who will actually vote for the DPA might have been valid in the initial stages of the drive.

However, now that folks have had to resubmit 2-3 cards to keep them active, the boutique, one-off "send ALPA a message" cards have given way to a sizable cadre of motivated folks who believe the DPA gives them the best chance at monetizing our vast leverage at the negotiating table.

That, coupled with ALPA's continuing self-immolation, are likely the reasons Moak recognized the threat to his ALPA fiefdom and ordered DALPA to stand up a committee to quash the DPA. $80,000 of our dues dollars later, the DPA is still here, still viable, and still the best option for our pilot group going forward.

 

No way to predict the answer to that question until after the vote. But you've made a sizable mistake in your premise. You need 50% plus 1 of all Delta pilots to call for a vote. You only need 50% plus 1 of pilots who actually vote to win the election and decertify ALPA. In your example of only 90% (or about 4,800) of the DPA cards actually voting to decertify, you're assuming that there are 4,801 Delta pilots that will actually vote to keep ALPA. Though I can't prove what I'm about to say, I think that will be an impossible hill for ALPA to climb. For example, an FO on my last trip was talking to me about DPA. He doesn't want to join because he doesn't like ALPA, but just doesn't want to turn in a card yet. When I asked if he'll vote if we actually get an election, he said absolutely and he'll vote for DPA...just not until we can actually force the vote.

So, ALPA's problems are threefold. One is the extremely strong voter activism among DPA card holders. Two is the unknown number of non-DPA card holders that intend to vote for DPA (against ALPA) if DPA can actually force an election. Three is the new change to labor law which only requires half plus 1 of the members who actually vote instead of half plus 1 of the total membership.

This is why ALPA now finally (and correctly) sees this as an existential threat to them, and why the Secret Police have been re-funded and re-activated. I predict ALPA will not go down before making this a bloody street fight with no prisoners taken.

Carl

 

They've got some real goons among their faithful. Attack the careers of the pilots they represent and, well, we have to be "reasonable" under the circumstances. Attack ALPA, and they'll fight like there's no tomorrow. It will get UGLY. Shows exactly where their true loyalty lies and what is really important to them.

 

It amazes me that so many guys fall for this. They keep repeating half truths, misrepresentations, and even blatant lies. You are absolutely right... Alinsky tactics hard at work. To my knowledge, DPA has never said any of the stuff being attributed to them here.

 

Well seeming making predictions is in vogue today, my prediction: If the DPA calls for a vote they go down 60% to 40%, very similar to contract 2012. The silent majority of Delta Pilots have a long history of swinging elections when ready room talk/web board chat would indicate otherwise. Contract 1996 and 2012 come to mind.
I thought we are opening contract talks this spring, if so I sure hope this is settled before then.
In recent times every merger has been accompanied by a drive for a new union, remember the PPA ? The drives were always started by pilots who thought they got screwed in the mergers joined by the 15% of RD's who are convinced that ALPA is out to get them. The DPA was started by FNW pilots who again were angry at the outcome of the SLI rapidly joined by the traditional ALPA haters. The difference this time is the triple slam of; age 65 stagnation, bankruptcy and the ensuing wage and benefits rape, and the worst economy since the great depression all combining to make most everybody question everything from our companies to our union representation.
When I look at where the DL pilot group is compared to other US passenger airline groups and compare how the independent unions have done vis a vie DALPA I find no hope in the independents. Yes SWAPA is good but they are the model for constructive engagement. They got where they are today with small increases every year and bonuses every year from a very successful company. The APA will always be known for 3 failures: Turning down the most lucrative contract in the history of US airlines right before 9-11 (DL and ALPA were already predicting a downturn in US airlines a month before ). They fought fiercely against age 65 and couldn't even convince their own Congressman much less anyone else to vote against it. Last but not least, by demanding a home run in stalled contract negotiations they lost millions of unrecoverable dollars in compensation for their members. The fought the good fight but got their a$$es kicked. USAPA is a joke and I don't think I need to add anything to their resume except why is the DPA using the same legal group ? That's downright scary !
I always believe in majority rules and if by some chance the DPA wins I will respect the results and support the DPA. However, I ask look around at where we have been and where we are now. We are at the top of the heap save maybe SW and we are getting ready to negotiate for more gains with the most profitable airline in history. I just hope we don't have an ongoing power struggle over our representation to hamstring us.

 

I agree with the first part of this quote, however your UNION thinks otherwise. Go back and look at the Delta Pilot's Contract History, published by the Negotiating Committee on July 11, 2011. I'd post the entire document if I knew how to attach a pdf file.

Management's continued massive compensation increases ARE relevant, as they continues to line their pockets with our plundered concessions. Their excesses should be highlighted at EVERY opportunity.

Here is just a sample of MANAGEMENT topics covered by the "Delta Pilot's Contract History":

Operating Revenue
Operating Income
Operating Margin
Pre-Tax Income
Pre-Tax Margin
Pilot CASM
Available Cash
Crude Oil

No mention of our terminated pensions, the planned $1B in givebacks (of OUR concessions) to the stockholders, our lost purchasing power, the scheduling "efficiencies," more work for less pay, the continued devastating effects of inflation, and on and on. And of course, your UNION never mentions or even alludes to the unspeakable position---RESTORATION.

One has to ask, why is DALPA more concerned with making management's arguments than in making the pilots' case for RESTORATION? Hmmmmmm?

It's because DALPA is MANAGEMENT.

 

Finis,

Yours is a good post.

You have to add to your considerations the tailwinds the DPA recieved from many Delta pilots who have been displaced post - merger and who's careers have moved backwards since 2008. Ironically, many of these pilots joined with their Northwest brothers in the "I got screwed" crowd, although ironically the remedy for each is the destruction of the other.

The bigger issue (and more immediate for those of us who watch this sort of thing) is that the Delta MEC has been unwilling to stand up to protect and promote it's turf. Clearly Delta Flying is a concern of the Delta pilots. Yet, our MEC had no reaction to another pilot group coming to Delta and negotiating in secret to reach an agreement to perform Delta flying.

If the Delta MEC really desires to kill the DPA and restore unity, they need only to do their job. That job is to promote the interests of the Delta pilots. We are currently failing to promote our interests within our own association.

Our best move, as an Council within an Association is to properly administer our business, based on the governing documents of our Association. Specifically, we should place ALPA on notice that we will not tolerate expartied bargaining which excludes Delta pilots. Further, we should ensure management has no opportunity to exclude us by placing the Delta Master Executive Council in Recognition, alongside ALPA in our Pilot Working Agreement. (and we can always decide not to participate when it is not in our interest to do so)

We can debate the efficacy of the PUB program; how many it reaches and at what cost. However, if we want to put the DPA behind us and move forward in unity, we need to get our MEC to do it's job to promote it's own power. The Delta pilots need to see a strong representative advancing it's interests.

The central foundation of the DPA is a belief in a "conflict of interest" instead of the coordination of interest that airlines share in a National Association. By properly managing our role within our Association we would demonstrate coordination which would rob the foundation of the DPA right out from under it. The DPA collapses without it's foundation.

 

Excellent post. I think that sums it up. Personally, I doubt we'll ever get to a vote and I have my doubts about the "active card" count too. Before we were led to believe that there would be an NMB filing based on the number of "members", now it's "active cards", but what is an "active card?" My hunch is that it's not what we think it is, just like the "membership" numbers weren't, just like the countdown clocks weren't, just like all the "final pushes" weren't. But if we do get to a vote, I expect that DPA will lose by 20-30%. Too many guys who have turned in cards have told me that it was just to send a message, or they just wanted to find out more, but now aren't interested. Most guys want the straightest line to the next contract and that's not through DPA. JMO, YMMV.