AA recalls
06-03-2011 | 01:31 PM
#121
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My heads starting to spin from the various numbers but here goes -
A guy has been making very accurate predictions on how far down the list each class will go. He also tracks the recall acceptance rate that actually requal at AA(ie, not MLOA, deferral, etc, etc).
Basic recall of his numbers is he expects 100(?) guys to accept recall and then there are 165(?) AE guys to come through.
He projected hiring next August if we stayed at recalling 25 per month.
If my recall of his projections is correct he's looking at approx. 250-300 guys before AA starts off the street hiring. If that's correct you can divide 250-300 by any increased recall rate and that will be the new estimated 'off the street' hiring date.
System wide union meeting June 8th. No whispers on what it's about so no predictions from me. However, negotiating email today said they believe the company is serious about getting a deal shortly. If true, and it comes to pass, and if the company has some sort of internal growth plan to fight UA/CO and DL/NW, who knows what 2012/2013, or beyond, will look like....however, I wouldn't hold my breath.
A guy has been making very accurate predictions on how far down the list each class will go. He also tracks the recall acceptance rate that actually requal at AA(ie, not MLOA, deferral, etc, etc).
Basic recall of his numbers is he expects 100(?) guys to accept recall and then there are 165(?) AE guys to come through.
He projected hiring next August if we stayed at recalling 25 per month.
If my recall of his projections is correct he's looking at approx. 250-300 guys before AA starts off the street hiring. If that's correct you can divide 250-300 by any increased recall rate and that will be the new estimated 'off the street' hiring date.
System wide union meeting June 8th. No whispers on what it's about so no predictions from me. However, negotiating email today said they believe the company is serious about getting a deal shortly. If true, and it comes to pass, and if the company has some sort of internal growth plan to fight UA/CO and DL/NW, who knows what 2012/2013, or beyond, will look like....however, I wouldn't hold my breath.
06-03-2011 | 06:14 PM
#122
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Joined: Dec 2007
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From: Window seat
PBSG - that's a total of 250-300 bodies on the property before hiring starts. The guy doing the numbers crunching obviously has to make some assumptions, but he's been fairly accurate at his assumptions.
If his assumptions continue to stay fairly accurate to get the 100+ furloughee recalls will require going through the entire furlough list. After that the 165(?) AE flow-ups come(I think that's a 100% deal, ie they have to come), after which off the street hiring.
The unknown is how many will AA recall per month? 50?(that's what they were doing this spring). 60? 70? Or less?
If the projectioned assumptions of recall acceptance are correct 50 would clear the anticipated 250-300 guys in 5-6 months. 60 would be 4-5 months. 70 would be 4 months.
If the economy stays anywhere near stable it looks like off the street hiring should start NLT than 2012.
Hire until the furloughs start, furlough until the hiring starts...
If his assumptions continue to stay fairly accurate to get the 100+ furloughee recalls will require going through the entire furlough list. After that the 165(?) AE flow-ups come(I think that's a 100% deal, ie they have to come), after which off the street hiring.
The unknown is how many will AA recall per month? 50?(that's what they were doing this spring). 60? 70? Or less?
If the projectioned assumptions of recall acceptance are correct 50 would clear the anticipated 250-300 guys in 5-6 months. 60 would be 4-5 months. 70 would be 4 months.
If the economy stays anywhere near stable it looks like off the street hiring should start NLT than 2012.
Hire until the furloughs start, furlough until the hiring starts...
06-04-2011 | 07:11 AM
#123
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Joined: Mar 2005
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From: DFW A320 FO
There are approximately 240 more Eagles with numbers (most at the very bottom of the list). They do not have to accept transfer, and they get no renumeration like the 215 that just finished arriving, so I suspect only 100 or so probably will choose to go (these are guys with over 15yrs at Eagle, all fairly senior captains at/near 6 figures with good schedules). Then Eagle is supposed to get 1 of every 2 newhire positions (up to 824 more Eagles) when off the street begins.
This is great news, though a verbal committment is hardly binding. Hopefully it holds true at 50+/mo and we'll see street hiring within a year at AA.
This is great news, though a verbal committment is hardly binding. Hopefully it holds true at 50+/mo and we'll see street hiring within a year at AA.
06-04-2011 | 07:20 AM
#124
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From: B-737
The managing director of flight said to me last week that the company is preparing for new hires sometime late this year or early next year. The exact timing will depend on the number of returning recalled pilots and pilots who elect to cancel their deferrals. The 1st July recall class had #9636 called. They started the first June class with #9567, so one may deduce that at this point in time the recall acceptance rate is slightly less than 1 in 3. With an accelerated recall rate starting in August and with about 1000 pilots left to be called, I have to guess that new hires will be here next summer.
06-04-2011 | 08:08 AM
#125
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Joined: Oct 2005
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From: MD-11 FO
The managing director of flight said to me last week that the company is preparing for new hires sometime late this year or early next year. The exact timing will depend on the number of returning recalled pilots and pilots who elect to cancel their deferrals. The 1st July recall class had #9636 called. They started the first June class with #9567, so one may deduce that at this point in time the recall acceptance rate is slightly less than 1 in 3. With an accelerated recall rate starting in August and with about 1000 pilots left to be called, I have to guess that new hires will be here next summer.
06-05-2011 | 09:16 AM
#126
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Joined: Dec 2007
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From: Window seat
06-06-2011 | 09:18 AM
#127
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Joined: Apr 2011
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True. However, AA has said that they will be picking up the recall rate to the highest rate they can manage, which should be at least 50/month. Could be more. From what I am hearing, AA is critically understaffed right now.
06-06-2011 | 11:56 AM
#129
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We are all hearing those rumors. The 773 rumor is pretty valid - so far we are up to 6 and it seems like AMR orders another one every 2 months or so - trickle orders. I foresee a fleet of at least 20 773s.
The Airbus rumor is gaining traction - I've heard from several folks in high places that a new fleet is coming. I've even heard of an "airine within AMR" domestic only using A319s/20s/21s.
The next few months will be very interesting. Contract should be wrapped up by the end of the year. They are gearing up for new hires by next year at the latest.
The Airbus rumor is gaining traction - I've heard from several folks in high places that a new fleet is coming. I've even heard of an "airine within AMR" domestic only using A319s/20s/21s.
The next few months will be very interesting. Contract should be wrapped up by the end of the year. They are gearing up for new hires by next year at the latest.
06-06-2011 | 12:14 PM
#130
Indian Takeout Driver
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,566
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From: FAR part 347 (91+121+135)
We are all hearing those rumors. The 773 rumor is pretty valid - so far we are up to 6 and it seems like AMR orders another one every 2 months or so - trickle orders. I foresee a fleet of at least 20 773s.
The Airbus rumor is gaining traction - I've heard from several folks in high places that a new fleet is coming. I've even heard of an "airine within AMR" domestic only using A319s/20s/21s.
The next few months will be very interesting. Contract should be wrapped up by the end of the year. They are gearing up for new hires by next year at the latest.
The Airbus rumor is gaining traction - I've heard from several folks in high places that a new fleet is coming. I've even heard of an "airine within AMR" domestic only using A319s/20s/21s.
The next few months will be very interesting. Contract should be wrapped up by the end of the year. They are gearing up for new hires by next year at the latest.
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