Super92,

disregard ... editing.

 

Yeah they're hoping because they see a wall coming ahead and are positioning as if theyre going to replace 1-1 on all jets. They know the 50 seaters are coming to a close and want to replace those for bigger jets, Won't happen!!

Game over

 

You ever think that maybe they have decided to defer to see if those 717's really are available? The LUV/ATN SLI is slated to be back from the arbitrator nlt Feb 2012. I am sure as the day is long that DAL would prefer to get a 717 for 15 million versus a C_Series for 26 million, or a E-Jet for 20 million that carries less people and a jet that they would have to buy new, and not be able to get rid of when the true next gen jet arrives. By waiting they are leaving the short term option, that is better financially, open.

Make sense?

 

I hope that's the case

 

I agree, but Jerry Atkin wont hang up his cleats nearly that quickly.

Like Delta, Jerry could care less at the end of the day who flies his airplanes. He hates ALPA, but knows he has to deal with it and also admits the jerrymandering to keep SkyWest Airlines sanctified from XJet cost him and his shareholders money.

I could see some sort of a bridge where the quid pro quo for a Delta seniority number is a staple (with protections). Without the agreement, the flying simply gets sunset. Rinse wash repeat at other ALPA carriers. If you aren't ALPA, we don't speak for you ... tough cookies ... better join.

This strategy is a win for pilots, who finally can end whipsaw, restore career stability and enjoy employment where there will be a future. The strategy is a win for SkyWest, who has a life line to the future operating unrestricted aircraft piloted by "Delta" crews, under the Delta PWA. Delta wins by gaining the market flexibility it has always needed and being unrestricted on who owns, or operates, its jets ... as long as they are operated by Delta crews.

Most importantly, Delta pilots win by ending outsourcing, performing their own flying, at a more financially stable company.

ALPA wins by finally being relevant. ALPA can show that its' exclusive right to bargain Delta flying actually is worth joining to participate in. For too long, ALPA has cost and lost its' pilots' jobs. That can (and must) be turned around.

Some senior Delta pilots will ask, what is in this for me? In reply, I ask, "how would the last ten years been for you if Delta had not spent over 25 billion dollars on RJ experiments which universally failed to make money for the company?"

Just my opinion.

 

Sounds good but they fly for other carriers also? How do you handle that?

 

Jerry's problem, not ours. He's got SkyWest.

I'm just saying that no one should take these regional operators for granted. They'll do something. Heck, look at Republic's nut job of the last 24 months.

 

It is my belief that DAL understands that forcing DALPA to sell scope for a short term gain would mean that ALPA would be done for, and they would have to deal with something new and totally unknown. Better to deal with the devil you know. I mean that.

No rep is willing to sell scope, even the ones I do not see eye to eye with on many issues, agree on this point. Period.

The fact is that if they cannot get the 717's they are faced with a dilemma. Buy the C-Series which is expensive but offers better savings. It is a step in the correct direction, but truly a half step to a next gen platform, or the E-Series, which is last gen, has the same type flown at DCI, and would place them at a point where they are forced to acquire the wrong airfame at the wrong time, for a price and or lease terms that really are unacceptable.

A few of the options with the E-Jets are these:
1) Make us sell them so that a airline like CPS, or RJET can get efficiencies with training

2) Bring those smaller e-jets here, gain the efficiencies of training for multiple types work as best as they can if we refuse to budge on scope. (Read: cumbersome process for a ten year fix, and one DAL would love to not mess with unless we unified and forced the issue. Frankly these may be an economic case for the latter, I have been thinking about this one)

3) Wrt to number two, if Embraer or another finance company is willing to give us a lease term of ten years on these jets, where DAL can leave the options open, and acquire the true next gen jet at the correct time frame.

Frankly, by waiting until they did for the 100 seat jet leaves them right in the middle of a few mediocre options. If they could have bought these jets in 2005 and not been in the middle of CH11, the lease terms would have made sense. We rightfully refused to sell the flying, and will rightfully refuse again. That leaves DAL hoping they can get a cheap used jet; the 717, or a great deal on the 190, or be stuck ordering a expensive half step; C-Series, that they will be stuck with well after the debut of the first narrowbody plastic jet.

That is why, the pilots of DAL need to realize that the 717 is the easiest option, but not a option that is totally on the table yet. The second option is the 190, and to do that where DAL can make the business case for it, means thinking outside of traditional means. That may mean bringing some smaller flying here, and it my have to be done in a non-traditional manner. Ala, another corporation owning the jet, but our seniority listed pilots flying the jets along side pilots that are flying the 170/175. It may not be a traditional acquisition that would dictate a SLI, and for that reason, we would need to figure out what is in the best interest of the Delta Pilots with a scenario like that. I am sure DAL wants the training efficiencies one way or another. Also understand that places like SKW get better terms for loans that ma delta does. DAL may be able to sell bonds for the new jets, but the rates would probably be around 8.75%+ for these new jets.

Yes, this is just my mind day dreaming and musing of possibilities today, so take it as such.

 

That's absolutely what I think is happening, but what if the 717s fall through. I'm seriously thinking we've tentatively grabbed those "missing" 717s but until they show up we've got stuff to be mindful of.

 

We will find out in a few months. The question is do the jets get washed though a finance company or do we buy them directly from ATN/Guadalupe Holdings.

The nature of the transaction is very important.