Delta and TPG look To put bid on AMR Corp
01-13-2012, 05:57 AM
#121
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: 7ER A
Posts: 80
Originally Posted by RJtrashPilot
IF (and that's a big IF) a DL/AA deal goes through and the resulting capacity pull down results in massive furloughs, the long-storied and mythical "US airline pilot shortage" will be dodged yet again.
Or, if we go glass half-full, The new company and the pilots could negotiate a no-furlough clause that protects those that are actively flying right now (written on TeePee, of course)...the resulting merged company would certainly be very profitable...similar to the Delta / NWA merger JCBA that Delta pilots are currently working under. With the DAL NWA merger, we sorted out seniority via arbitration and got a relative seniority type agreement (with a pull out plug in and some short duration fences), and the NWA pilots got a pay raise in the form of increased hourly rates and furloughed guys had seniority longevity restored (some NWA reserve pilots lost money)...
My point being that it wouldn't necessarily be a disaster for everyone.
I'm around 10,000 at DAL and I have suffered a lot due to being bumped down in ATL by NWA guys that have moved into my domicile and equipment, so it has probably cost me $50,000 already, plus a lifestyle hit (reserve vs. line-holder on the 767) but this hit will reverse as I age and I will enjoy a better seniority percentage than I would have without the merger because I will benefit from the NWA retirements (I was pre-merger DAL)- I would rather take the hit now as a young co-pilot and make it up in 10 years as a Senior Captain.
It probably wont happen anyway, but the speculation is always fun, and I *may* sleep better at night knowing what the numbers would look like if it does happen, but I guess no American guys want to share the numbers as I have done. (See my post number 22).
01-13-2012, 06:02 AM
#122
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: 7ER A
Posts: 80
LOL...found it...right here on the home page.
AMR numbers:
10,734 Total
8,481 Active
1,685 Furloughed
Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437
AMR numbers:
10,734 Total
8,481 Active
1,685 Furloughed
Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437
01-13-2012, 06:09 AM
#123
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,273
Delta has involved themselves in the process because it is to their advantage to do so. That does not mean they actually want to buy American. Interjecting themselves in the process accomplishes many things. The most important might be that it gives them a look at the inner workings of AMR and what their route network really generates in terms of revenue ect.. As a potential buyer you get a inside look at the books. You also will have some clout in what AMR in the end has to offer the creditors. You drive up AMR's costs.
Delta and American have done this to each other for years. It started when Crandell jumped into the PanAm process and ran the price up a extra billion dollars for Delta. Delta repaid American in kind doing the same thing in the JAL process. It would have been stupid for Delta to stay on the sidelines in this one. They now will be in a position to influence the outcome and cost structure of a major competitor and get a inside look at where the airline makes the most money.
I don't however think it will result in a purchase of any AMR assets.
Delta and American have done this to each other for years. It started when Crandell jumped into the PanAm process and ran the price up a extra billion dollars for Delta. Delta repaid American in kind doing the same thing in the JAL process. It would have been stupid for Delta to stay on the sidelines in this one. They now will be in a position to influence the outcome and cost structure of a major competitor and get a inside look at where the airline makes the most money.
I don't however think it will result in a purchase of any AMR assets.
01-13-2012, 06:18 AM
#124
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: 7ER A
Posts: 80
Definitely not pretty the first 6-7 years...just not enough guys leaving...but after that, lots of guys every year...2020-2028 over a thousand guys a year. OF course, the merged carrier would shrink, just as NWA / DAL have with no hiring for several years, so, yes, it would not be real pretty IMHO for the first ten years - especially for bottom guys / AMR furloughees.
MANDATORY RETIREMENTS AGE 65
Year AMR DAL TOTAL
2012 – 5 9 14
2013 – 85 22 117
2014 – 103 112 215
2015 – 130 160 290
2016 – 167 238 405
2017 – 255 319 574
2018 – 331 377 708
2019 – 442 480 922
2020 – 545 552 1097
2021 – 601 672 1273
2022 – 666 814 1480
2023 – 710 877 1587
2024 – 725 828 1553
2025 – 731 819 1550
2026 – 716 721 1437
2027 – 599 624 1223
2028 – 517 508 1025
2029 – 477 514 991
2030 – 416 529 945
2031 – 437 512 949
MANDATORY RETIREMENTS AGE 65
Year AMR DAL TOTAL
2012 – 5 9 14
2013 – 85 22 117
2014 – 103 112 215
2015 – 130 160 290
2016 – 167 238 405
2017 – 255 319 574
2018 – 331 377 708
2019 – 442 480 922
2020 – 545 552 1097
2021 – 601 672 1273
2022 – 666 814 1480
2023 – 710 877 1587
2024 – 725 828 1553
2025 – 731 819 1550
2026 – 716 721 1437
2027 – 599 624 1223
2028 – 517 508 1025
2029 – 477 514 991
2030 – 416 529 945
2031 – 437 512 949
01-13-2012, 06:22 AM
#125
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: 7ER A
Posts: 80
Originally Posted by sailingfun
Delta has involved themselves in the process because it is to their advantage to do so. That does not mean they actually want to buy American. Interjecting themselves in the process accomplishes many things. The most important might be that it gives them a look at the inner workings of AMR and what their route network really generates in terms of revenue ect.. As a potential buyer you get a inside look at the books. You also will have some clout in what AMR in the end has to offer the creditors. You drive up AMR's costs.
Delta and American have done this to each other for years. It started when Crandell jumped into the PanAm process and ran the price up a extra billion dollars for Delta. Delta repaid American in kind doing the same thing in the JAL process. It would have been stupid for Delta to stay on the sidelines in this one. They now will be in a position to influence the outcome and cost structure of a major competitor and get a inside look at where the airline makes the most money.
I don't however think it will result in a purchase of any AMR assets.
Delta and American have done this to each other for years. It started when Crandell jumped into the PanAm process and ran the price up a extra billion dollars for Delta. Delta repaid American in kind doing the same thing in the JAL process. It would have been stupid for Delta to stay on the sidelines in this one. They now will be in a position to influence the outcome and cost structure of a major competitor and get a inside look at where the airline makes the most money.
I don't however think it will result in a purchase of any AMR assets.
If AMR fragments, the AMR South American route structure would be a sought-after piece by DAL for sure.
01-13-2012, 07:25 AM
#127
On Reserve
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 23
Originally Posted by TOGA LK
C'mon Johnso, being in the bottom <3% for 4 years with 15 retirements coming this year and 85 in 2012 leads to an epic experience. Much like an AE where you never know what half of the country you'll end up on, a merger with AA is guaranteed to send thousands like you and I everywhere, just not at Delta.
TIC
TIC
01-13-2012, 09:05 AM
#128
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 302
Originally Posted by sailingfun
Delta has involved themselves in the process because it is to their advantage to do so. That does not mean they actually want to buy American. Interjecting themselves in the process accomplishes many things. The most important might be that it gives them a look at the inner workings of AMR and what their route network really generates in terms of revenue ect.. As a potential buyer you get a inside look at the books. You also will have some clout in what AMR in the end has to offer the creditors. You drive up AMR's costs.
Delta and American have done this to each other for years. It started when Crandell jumped into the PanAm process and ran the price up a extra billion dollars for Delta. Delta repaid American in kind doing the same thing in the JAL process. It would have been stupid for Delta to stay on the sidelines in this one. They now will be in a position to influence the outcome and cost structure of a major competitor and get a inside look at where the airline makes the most money.
I don't however think it will result in a purchase of any AMR assets.
Delta and American have done this to each other for years. It started when Crandell jumped into the PanAm process and ran the price up a extra billion dollars for Delta. Delta repaid American in kind doing the same thing in the JAL process. It would have been stupid for Delta to stay on the sidelines in this one. They now will be in a position to influence the outcome and cost structure of a major competitor and get a inside look at where the airline makes the most money.
I don't however think it will result in a purchase of any AMR assets.
01-13-2012, 09:45 AM
#130
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
Retirement data:
A couple notes- US does not include HP, which would skew the US line about 1/3-1/4 the way toward the DL/AA lines. UA is not verified.
And I thought WN's retirement picture looked bad- check out B6.
A couple notes- US does not include HP, which would skew the US line about 1/3-1/4 the way toward the DL/AA lines. UA is not verified.
And I thought WN's retirement picture looked bad- check out B6.
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