Virgin America Outlook
02-02-2012 | 02:28 PM
#71
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 401
Likes: 0
A mix of pairings from 1 to 4 days. I think the 4 days are about 45% of the pairings, but vary in productivity from 19 to 28 hours. The 1 day trips are either 4 leg SFO to LAX, LAS or SEA, or are the Cabo and PVR turns.
There is a PBS bid system. You have to bid 70 credit in a month, max is 95.
RONs are in decent hotels, Hilton, Westin and similar. SEA and JFK have downtown hotels for the longer stays and airport hotels for the short stays.
If you don't live in Cali, you only have to pay the CADI tax which is short term disability.
SFO has the most flying, LAX is growing and JFK is very small. Seniority runs top to bottom in each place, but in the smaller domiciles a junior guy has less to pick from once the senior bidders fill in their schedules.
Lots of redeyes, SFO and LAX to BOS, JFK, IAD & FLL just about every night.
Hope this helps.
There is a PBS bid system. You have to bid 70 credit in a month, max is 95.
RONs are in decent hotels, Hilton, Westin and similar. SEA and JFK have downtown hotels for the longer stays and airport hotels for the short stays.
If you don't live in Cali, you only have to pay the CADI tax which is short term disability.
SFO has the most flying, LAX is growing and JFK is very small. Seniority runs top to bottom in each place, but in the smaller domiciles a junior guy has less to pick from once the senior bidders fill in their schedules.
Lots of redeyes, SFO and LAX to BOS, JFK, IAD & FLL just about every night.
Hope this helps.
02-02-2012 | 02:50 PM
#72
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,480
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Considering they've turned a profit ONE QUARTER in 4 YEARS, that is indeed a gamble.
02-02-2012 | 03:25 PM
#73
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 147
Likes: 0
From what I see on your avatar (UAL Furlough'd) sorry to see that. This industry is literally a total crap shoot! It almost makes all the due dilligence and research comical. This industry has got to be the most unstable rediculous spectacle of a circus the world has ever seen! One minute your in the number one airline that is the PLACE TO BE hiring like crazy. Not the very next year, guys are being furlough'd. I'm currently 48 so If I move to another carrier, suffice it to say that I'll spend the majority of my years there as an FO. So unless I'm furlough'd, I have no intention of seeking another airline. Where ever I choose to go is going to be it for me. Since I'd be at my "Career Airline" the value of TPIC time if I can be hired now (No TPIC) may be inconcequencial, unless of course I were to be furlough'd. I do have my own ATP Ticket so I got that goin for me lol! Again its all a crap shoot.
So the big question for my situation would be. If given the opportunity, would I be willing to risk my career to jump over there with zero TPIC. There are currently 430 FO's above me. That puts me at minimum 2 to 3 yrs away from upgrade. So with no TPIC, my view is that I am litterally putting all my eggs in one basket. If the Airline fails, I'm SIC typed in an Airbus with all the other fishes and no TPIC to be competitive to move elswhere. Hell I would probably hang it up by then and do something different outside this industry.
I mean Hell at this point, what I've learned about Virgin America actually gets me excited to work there. It's a great product in my opinion. And from what I've seen in this post deregulation era industry, Airlines seem to run the same big life cycle. The trick.., I think for me anyway.., would be to jump on at the beginning of that cycle. I mean all I need is 17 yrs, so VX is looking better and better.., if it succeeds that is. That would be the defacto "Million Dollar Question."
Here is a VERY ROUGH idea of the Post Deregulation "Airline Circle of Life." Virgin America currently being at the Start Up/Growing phase See what ya think ; )
- 'Start Up: Low Labor Costs, No Profit
- Growing: Small Labor/Fuel Increases, Small Profit
- Success: Fuel Costs Up, Profitable
- Outstanding Success: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Highly Profitable
- Still Successful: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Profit Plateau
- Marginal Success: Fuel Cost Increase, Profits Shrinking
- First Loss, Fuel Increase: Losses Reported
- Moderate Losses: Pay Concessions, Fuel Cost Increase, Greater Losses
- Large Losses: More Pay Concessions Fuel Increases, Furloughs/Capacity Reductions
- Bankruptcy: Reorganize, Merge or Buy Out
Rinse and repeat with a "Leaner, Meaner Airline"
Best of Luck to Us ALL!
So the big question for my situation would be. If given the opportunity, would I be willing to risk my career to jump over there with zero TPIC. There are currently 430 FO's above me. That puts me at minimum 2 to 3 yrs away from upgrade. So with no TPIC, my view is that I am litterally putting all my eggs in one basket. If the Airline fails, I'm SIC typed in an Airbus with all the other fishes and no TPIC to be competitive to move elswhere. Hell I would probably hang it up by then and do something different outside this industry.
I mean Hell at this point, what I've learned about Virgin America actually gets me excited to work there. It's a great product in my opinion. And from what I've seen in this post deregulation era industry, Airlines seem to run the same big life cycle. The trick.., I think for me anyway.., would be to jump on at the beginning of that cycle. I mean all I need is 17 yrs, so VX is looking better and better.., if it succeeds that is. That would be the defacto "Million Dollar Question."
Here is a VERY ROUGH idea of the Post Deregulation "Airline Circle of Life." Virgin America currently being at the Start Up/Growing phase See what ya think ; )
- 'Start Up: Low Labor Costs, No Profit
- Growing: Small Labor/Fuel Increases, Small Profit
- Success: Fuel Costs Up, Profitable
- Outstanding Success: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Highly Profitable
- Still Successful: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Profit Plateau
- Marginal Success: Fuel Cost Increase, Profits Shrinking
- First Loss, Fuel Increase: Losses Reported
- Moderate Losses: Pay Concessions, Fuel Cost Increase, Greater Losses
- Large Losses: More Pay Concessions Fuel Increases, Furloughs/Capacity Reductions
- Bankruptcy: Reorganize, Merge or Buy Out
Rinse and repeat with a "Leaner, Meaner Airline"
Best of Luck to Us ALL!
02-03-2012 | 07:39 AM
#74
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 730
Likes: 59
From: Office Chair
Does anyone know what VX's current a/c utilization rate is? (hrs/day)
My personal opinion is that the amount of trans-con flying VX does leaves them particularly exposed to oil price fluctuations. Shorter segments generally = higher RASMs. In the time it takes to fly an a/c from SFO-JFK, the same a/c could be utilized on 2-3 segments, thereby resulting in higher overall revenues for that timeframe. Will passengers be willing to pay for a premium product when fuel prices spike and they have to eat the extra cost of carrying all that fuel across the country?
Despite all of the articles you may read on the looming pilot shortage, it's still not really a "seller's" market out there for pilots. My best advice would be to spray your resume out to every company you would even consider working for, then make your decision based on which airline or airlines offer you a job.
My personal opinion is that the amount of trans-con flying VX does leaves them particularly exposed to oil price fluctuations. Shorter segments generally = higher RASMs. In the time it takes to fly an a/c from SFO-JFK, the same a/c could be utilized on 2-3 segments, thereby resulting in higher overall revenues for that timeframe. Will passengers be willing to pay for a premium product when fuel prices spike and they have to eat the extra cost of carrying all that fuel across the country?
Despite all of the articles you may read on the looming pilot shortage, it's still not really a "seller's" market out there for pilots. My best advice would be to spray your resume out to every company you would even consider working for, then make your decision based on which airline or airlines offer you a job.
02-03-2012 | 09:11 AM
#75
Sho me da money!
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 947
Likes: 0
From: B25, Left
What future outlook? I would venture to guess in this environment even deep pockets get tired of digging around. I like the product and always enjoy the professional crews while jump seating, but I am sorry to say it is not likely enough for a long future. Sorry just my opinion. just sayin!
02-03-2012 | 09:56 AM
#76
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,480
Likes: 0
02-03-2012 | 07:39 PM
#77
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 584
Likes: 0
From: 330 FO
From what I see on your avatar (UAL Furlough'd) sorry to see that. This industry is literally a total crap shoot! It almost makes all the due dilligence and research comical. This industry has got to be the most unstable rediculous spectacle of a circus the world has ever seen! One minute your in the number one airline that is the PLACE TO BE hiring like crazy. Not the very next year, guys are being furlough'd. I'm currently 48 so If I move to another carrier, suffice it to say that I'll spend the majority of my years there as an FO. So unless I'm furlough'd, I have no intention of seeking another airline. Where ever I choose to go is going to be it for me. Since I'd be at my "Career Airline" the value of TPIC time if I can be hired now (No TPIC) may be inconcequencial, unless of course I were to be furlough'd. I do have my own ATP Ticket so I got that goin for me lol! Again its all a crap shoot.
So the big question for my situation would be. If given the opportunity, would I be willing to risk my career to jump over there with zero TPIC. There are currently 430 FO's above me. That puts me at minimum 2 to 3 yrs away from upgrade. So with no TPIC, my view is that I am litterally putting all my eggs in one basket. If the Airline fails, I'm SIC typed in an Airbus with all the other fishes and no TPIC to be competitive to move elswhere. Hell I would probably hang it up by then and do something different outside this industry.
I mean Hell at this point, what I've learned about Virgin America actually gets me excited to work there. It's a great product in my opinion. And from what I've seen in this post deregulation era industry, Airlines seem to run the same big life cycle. The trick.., I think for me anyway.., would be to jump on at the beginning of that cycle. I mean all I need is 17 yrs, so VX is looking better and better.., if it succeeds that is. That would be the defacto "Million Dollar Question."
Here is a VERY ROUGH idea of the Post Deregulation "Airline Circle of Life." Virgin America currently being at the Start Up/Growing phase See what ya think ; )
- 'Start Up: Low Labor Costs, No Profit
- Growing: Small Labor/Fuel Increases, Small Profit
- Success: Fuel Costs Up, Profitable
- Outstanding Success: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Highly Profitable
- Still Successful: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Profit Plateau
- Marginal Success: Fuel Cost Increase, Profits Shrinking
- First Loss, Fuel Increase: Losses Reported
- Moderate Losses: Pay Concessions, Fuel Cost Increase, Greater Losses
- Large Losses: More Pay Concessions Fuel Increases, Furloughs/Capacity Reductions
- Bankruptcy: Reorganize, Merge or Buy Out
Rinse and repeat with a "Leaner, Meaner Airline"
Best of Luck to Us ALL!
So the big question for my situation would be. If given the opportunity, would I be willing to risk my career to jump over there with zero TPIC. There are currently 430 FO's above me. That puts me at minimum 2 to 3 yrs away from upgrade. So with no TPIC, my view is that I am litterally putting all my eggs in one basket. If the Airline fails, I'm SIC typed in an Airbus with all the other fishes and no TPIC to be competitive to move elswhere. Hell I would probably hang it up by then and do something different outside this industry.
I mean Hell at this point, what I've learned about Virgin America actually gets me excited to work there. It's a great product in my opinion. And from what I've seen in this post deregulation era industry, Airlines seem to run the same big life cycle. The trick.., I think for me anyway.., would be to jump on at the beginning of that cycle. I mean all I need is 17 yrs, so VX is looking better and better.., if it succeeds that is. That would be the defacto "Million Dollar Question."
Here is a VERY ROUGH idea of the Post Deregulation "Airline Circle of Life." Virgin America currently being at the Start Up/Growing phase See what ya think ; )
- 'Start Up: Low Labor Costs, No Profit
- Growing: Small Labor/Fuel Increases, Small Profit
- Success: Fuel Costs Up, Profitable
- Outstanding Success: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Highly Profitable
- Still Successful: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Profit Plateau
- Marginal Success: Fuel Cost Increase, Profits Shrinking
- First Loss, Fuel Increase: Losses Reported
- Moderate Losses: Pay Concessions, Fuel Cost Increase, Greater Losses
- Large Losses: More Pay Concessions Fuel Increases, Furloughs/Capacity Reductions
- Bankruptcy: Reorganize, Merge or Buy Out
Rinse and repeat with a "Leaner, Meaner Airline"
Best of Luck to Us ALL!
It's seems to me what you've got yourself is much akin to a stock trade.
This particular stock is dirt cheap ( a penny stock), so if things go well you get to cash is on big rewards. Problem with penny stocks is that $20,000 on a $.10 stock can easily go to nothing when it's found out that the company was built on sand.
Does VA have a cool product: YES
Do the customers that ride them like it: YES
Is the Company making a profit: Very Much NO
Are they brand new: No, Not really
Do customers buy on price - or- "coolness": PRICE
Did VA pick good hubs to carve out a niche: again, Very Much NO
How much longer will RB prop up this company hoping for something good: ????
Point is, what you've got is a gamble. You might make out like a bandit with VA if everything goes right. Looking at their financials and the industry's history, you might be better off getting in with a company that you think will be around when you retire as a WB FO or NB CA.
It's basically an "all in" or an "I'm done" situation when it comes to VA.
02-04-2012 | 08:56 AM
#80
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,480
Likes: 0
The problem at VX is unless they start making money (AND SOON) no amount of Kool-Aid fueled fantasy will save these jobs.
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