What if we got the 717s with TODAY's SCOPE?
#1
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What if we got the 717s with TODAY's SCOPE?
I was just wondering about what if we got the 717s from Southwest with today's scope? Let's say we turn down the TA, but the company still decides to get the 717s, and maybe other narrowbody planes. When does the 3 new 76 seaters per 1 new mainline plane kick into effect? I think we are short by about 30 planes? Let's say the company keeps the DC9s until 2014 (all 17 of them), and then starts to sublease the 717s, gets more MD90s, and then starts getting the 737-900s. Wouldn't the 70 new 76 seaters come anyway? What if it took 2 or more years to negotiate the next TA? We still would have 70 new 76 seaters coming, no pay raise, no new scope, as many Dash-8-400s as they would want to throw at us, and on and on. Don't think it could happen? I think it could, with or without the TA.
I did talk to an FO Rep today who stated that if we decided NOT to take the TA, and we did it two years from now, to get back the pay we would have lost over the two years, we would have to get a 27% raise on year one of the new TA. Somehow I can't see that. I guess we could try.
I did talk to an FO Rep today who stated that if we decided NOT to take the TA, and we did it two years from now, to get back the pay we would have lost over the two years, we would have to get a 27% raise on year one of the new TA. Somehow I can't see that. I guess we could try.
#2
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Wouldn't the 70 new 76 seaters come anyway?
Maybe, but we are at the max of 255 large regional jets (70 and 76 seaters). So to get those 6 extra seats, they would have to buy 76 seaters and park 70 seaters. Plus they would still have to grow mainline to do it.
Maybe, but we are at the max of 255 large regional jets (70 and 76 seaters). So to get those 6 extra seats, they would have to buy 76 seaters and park 70 seaters. Plus they would still have to grow mainline to do it.
#3
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I was just wondering about what if we got the 717s from Southwest with today's scope? Let's say we turn down the TA, but the company still decides to get the 717s, and maybe other narrowbody planes. When does the 3 new 76 seaters per 1 new mainline plane kick into effect? I think we are short by about 30 planes? Let's say the company keeps the DC9s until 2014 (all 17 of them), and then starts to sublease the 717s, gets more MD90s, and then starts getting the 737-900s. Wouldn't the 70 new 76 seaters come anyway? What if it took 2 or more years to negotiate the next TA? We still would have 70 new 76 seaters coming, no pay raise, no new scope, as many Dash-8-400s as they would want to throw at us, and on and on. Don't think it could happen? I think it could, with or without the TA.
So theoretically they could get 102 new 76 seaters...but they would have to immediately park 102 existing 70 seaters. The TA allows the 153 number above to go to 223 and the 225 total number goes to 325 while the 102 existing 70 seaters get to stay in addition to the 70 new 76 seaters.
IOW, under our current scope, the company has a very expensive way they can add 612 seats to the DCI RJ fleet. Under the TA scope, they can add 5320 seats to the DCI RJ fleet.
612 now, 5320 under the TA.
#4
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They will grow mainline (717s, MD90s, 739s), and still get 255 76 seaters, instead of 223 that were allowed in the TA. There will be MORE larger RJs, and extra 32 76 seaters, and we won't get a raise at all.
#5
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If that's what happened, the company could only get more 76 seaters by parking 70 seaters 1 for 1. Right now the mix is 153+102=255. 255 is the key. That is as high as they can go with RJ's over 50 seats even if mainline grows to a million planes. 255, that's it.
So theoretically they could get 102 new 76 seaters...but they would have to immediately park 102 existing 70 seaters. The TA allows the 153 number above to go to 223 and the 225 total number goes to 325 while the 102 existing 70 seaters get to stay in addition to the 70 new 76 seaters.
IOW, under our current scope, the company has a very expensive way they can add 612 seats to the DCI RJ fleet. Under the TA scope, they can add 5320 seats to the DCI RJ fleet.
612 now, 5320 under the TA.
So theoretically they could get 102 new 76 seaters...but they would have to immediately park 102 existing 70 seaters. The TA allows the 153 number above to go to 223 and the 225 total number goes to 325 while the 102 existing 70 seaters get to stay in addition to the 70 new 76 seaters.
IOW, under our current scope, the company has a very expensive way they can add 612 seats to the DCI RJ fleet. Under the TA scope, they can add 5320 seats to the DCI RJ fleet.
612 now, 5320 under the TA.
But they want to get rid of the 50 seaters, and maybe some of the 70 seaters. Not going with this TA will still get them new 76 seaters, and 32 more than the TA would give. They will have 255 76 seaters instead of 223, and the older 50s and some 70s would go away. A lot of those 70 seaters at ASA, Comair, and Gojets are old anyway. So, you choose. MORE 76 seaters (32 more), and no raise, no better work rules, no international scope improvements, no Alaska scope improvements, a bunch of free Dash-8-400s that are currently allowed (as many as they want) in our current scope, etc etc....
#6
If that's what happened, the company could only get more 76 seaters by parking 70 seaters 1 for 1. Right now the mix is 153+102=255. 255 is the key. That is as high as they can go with RJ's over 50 seats even if mainline grows to a million planes. 255, that's it.
So theoretically they could get 102 new 76 seaters...but they would have to immediately park 102 existing 70 seaters. The TA allows the 153 number above to go to 223 and the 225 total number goes to 325 while the 102 existing 70 seaters get to stay in addition to the 70 new 76 seaters.
IOW, under our current scope, the company has a very expensive way they can add 612 seats to the DCI RJ fleet. Under the TA scope, they can add 5320 seats to the DCI RJ fleet.
612 now, 5320 under the TA.
So theoretically they could get 102 new 76 seaters...but they would have to immediately park 102 existing 70 seaters. The TA allows the 153 number above to go to 223 and the 225 total number goes to 325 while the 102 existing 70 seaters get to stay in addition to the 70 new 76 seaters.
IOW, under our current scope, the company has a very expensive way they can add 612 seats to the DCI RJ fleet. Under the TA scope, they can add 5320 seats to the DCI RJ fleet.
612 now, 5320 under the TA.
They can add 70 76-seaters on top of the current 255, but due to the caps have to park 180 or so 50 seaters in an expedited manner.
This accounts for about a 3700 seat loss at DCI.
#8
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I was talking about the seats in the >50 seat DCI fleet. As for the 50 seaters, I'm willing to bet most of those seats are going away anyway.
#10
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So what happens when they add 76 seaters up to the 255 limit (and disgard 50 and 70 seaters to get the deal from the manufacturer)? We end up flying 717s for current DC9 rates, and we end up with 32 more 76 seaters than would be allowed under the current TA. There is a chance that could happen.
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