68 Is The New 60
04-24-2015, 12:42 PM
#32
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by iceman49
Andy, curious are the incidents any different than ones that have occurred across the entire age spectrum
Question: Do you think that pilots 60-65 are more likely or less likely to have a medical issue inflight?
Just look at an actuarial table. A 64 year old is ~50% more likely to die than a 59 year old in the US. In spite of what older pilots will tell you, this table also applies to pilots: Actuarial Life Table
Note that both male and female death probability increases by ~50% from 59 to 64.
04-24-2015, 12:48 PM
#33
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by skypilot35
I think you are correct regardless of the math. Good for the old geezer supporting his 21 year old wife. Bad news for the poor saps, myself included, at the commuters. Take care.
As someone who had just spent about 5 years on furlough, I found it fairly offensive to show me his 'wealth'. I hope she divorced him took every freaking toy he had, got a ton of child support/alimony, and I hope he is now an over 65 sim instructor in China or the Middle East.
04-24-2015, 12:51 PM
#34
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Joined APC: Oct 2014
Position: Downward-Facing Dog Pose
Posts: 1,537
Good for the old geezer supporting his 21 year old wife. Bad news for the poor saps, myself included, at the commuters.
Funny how this topic exposes the "I want it NOW I don't care about the future" mentality. Point being, (edit: GOING FORWARD from here) age extensions benefit everyone, eventually. If, say, the age limit is extended to 70 from 65 (adding in that 5 years ago it was extended to 65 from 60) and you are in your 50s, 40s, or less...guess what?? The system just added 10 YEARS to your accrued income actuarial chart! This is good news!
Disclaimer: this post is not directed at any particular person. Just a general observation.
Last edited by SayAlt; 04-24-2015 at 01:32 PM.
04-24-2015, 01:03 PM
#35
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by SayAlt
Until you finally become one of the old mainline geezers supporting his 21 yr old trophy, of course.
Funny how this topic exposes the "I want it NOW I don't care about the future" mentality. Point being, age extensions benefit everyone, eventually. If, say, the age limit is extended to 70 from 65 (adding in that 5 years ago it was extended to 65 from 60) and you are in your 50s, 40s, or less...guess what?? The system just added 10 YEARS to your accrued income actuarial chart! This is good news!
Disclaimer: this post is not directed at any particular person. Just a general observation.
Funny how this topic exposes the "I want it NOW I don't care about the future" mentality. Point being, age extensions benefit everyone, eventually. If, say, the age limit is extended to 70 from 65 (adding in that 5 years ago it was extended to 65 from 60) and you are in your 50s, 40s, or less...guess what?? The system just added 10 YEARS to your accrued income actuarial chart! This is good news!
Disclaimer: this post is not directed at any particular person. Just a general observation.
I could go through the economics of how only a few benefit from an age change at the long term cost of all pilots (lower lifetime salaries due to a shift on the supply/demand curve), but it's not worth my time.
'Accrued income actuarial chart' - mashing words together for made up phrases?? Geezertalk.
04-24-2015, 01:06 PM
#36
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Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: It's hot out here.
Posts: 615
Originally Posted by SayAlt
Until you finally become one of the old mainline geezers supporting his 21 yr old trophy, of course.
Funny how this topic exposes the "I want it NOW I don't care about the future" mentality. Point being, age extensions benefit everyone, eventually. If, say, the age limit is extended to 70 from 65 (adding in that 5 years ago it was extended to 65 from 60) and you are in your 50s, 40s, or less...guess what?? The system just added 10 YEARS to your accrued income actuarial chart! This is good news!
Disclaimer: this post is not directed at any particular person. Just a general observation.
Funny how this topic exposes the "I want it NOW I don't care about the future" mentality. Point being, age extensions benefit everyone, eventually. If, say, the age limit is extended to 70 from 65 (adding in that 5 years ago it was extended to 65 from 60) and you are in your 50s, 40s, or less...guess what?? The system just added 10 YEARS to your accrued income actuarial chart! This is good news!
Disclaimer: this post is not directed at any particular person. Just a general observation.
I recognize your opinion and yes I'd like to move on to a major in the near future. This is career number 2 for me and I am not in a hurry, but time is a consideration. However, I can tell you, the guys / gals that I fly with who've been trudging away for the past 8 to 10 years, some longer, do not fall into the "I want it now" category. They are tired. They've worked hard. They've put up with ridiculous commutes and time spent in crash pads. What's another 2 years some might say. You gotta pay your dues is another mantra. They've endured a consistent degradation in QOL and pay. 2 years more is a lot.
It could be asked, why would a guy at the majors want to work 2 more years?
04-24-2015, 01:10 PM
#37
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Joined APC: Oct 2014
Position: Downward-Facing Dog Pose
Posts: 1,537
Originally Posted by Andy
I spent 3 years on furlough after the 60 to 65 age change. Furloughed AFTER the change went into effect. So your statement that everyone benefits eventually is a steaming pile of ...
Originally Posted by Andy
I could go through the economics of how only a few benefit from an age change at the long term cost of all pilots (lower lifetime salaries due to a shift on the supply/demand curve), but it's not worth my time.
04-24-2015, 01:17 PM
#38
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by SayAlt
You could, yes, but to prove your contention "only a few benefit" you have to assume supply vs. demand won't change. And we know that's not true. Nor will be.
Supply increases with an age increase.
Demand declines with an age increase because airlines can shut down their training pipelines. For the 3 majors, that's ~1000 pilots per airline.
Those are effects DIRECTLY attributable to an age increase. Any external changes to the supply/demand curve would occur with or without an age increase.
The effect of age increase on pilot supply/demand curve is not rocket science.
04-24-2015, 01:20 PM
#39
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Joined APC: Oct 2014
Position: Downward-Facing Dog Pose
Posts: 1,537
Originally Posted by skypilot35
I'm too old, ugly, and poor for a 21 year old.
I recognize your opinion and yes I'd like to move on to a major in the near future. This is career number 2 for me and I am not in a hurry, but time is a consideration. However, I can tell you, the guys / gals that I fly with who've been trudging away for the past 8 to 10 years, some longer, do not fall into the "I want it now" category. They are tired. They've worked hard. They've put up with ridiculous commutes and time spent in crash pads. What's another 2 years some might say. You gotta pay your dues is another mantra. They've endured a consistent degradation in QOL and pay. 2 years more is a lot.
It could be asked, why would a guy at the majors want to work 2 more years?
I recognize your opinion and yes I'd like to move on to a major in the near future. This is career number 2 for me and I am not in a hurry, but time is a consideration. However, I can tell you, the guys / gals that I fly with who've been trudging away for the past 8 to 10 years, some longer, do not fall into the "I want it now" category. They are tired. They've worked hard. They've put up with ridiculous commutes and time spent in crash pads. What's another 2 years some might say. You gotta pay your dues is another mantra. They've endured a consistent degradation in QOL and pay. 2 years more is a lot.
It could be asked, why would a guy at the majors want to work 2 more years?
I get it. I don't mean to sound cold, or unaware. But it's not just pilots that have endured a consistent degradation in QOL and pay. The whole middle class of America has. Pilots are hardly alone in that.
Most everyone comes into this industry knowing the risks, variables, and possibilities. It sucks that some people lose in the Airline Casino lottery, but they knew it was possible, that it could happen, it would be beyond their control, and they would be helpless to do anything about it.
The past cannot be changed. I'm always looking ahead for possibilities and potential. But I've always been a "glass half full" person.
04-24-2015, 01:24 PM
#40
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Joined APC: Jul 2011
Posts: 174
Originally Posted by SayAlt
Sorry. Should have said "most everyone".
You could, yes, but to prove your contention "only a few benefit" you have to assume supply vs. demand won't change. And we know that's not true. Nor will be.
You could, yes, but to prove your contention "only a few benefit" you have to assume supply vs. demand won't change. And we know that's not true. Nor will be.
Very few people benefited. The age increase didn't give everyone 5 more years at the top. It gave everyone 5 more years where they were at that moment. A few were at the top as widebody captains, but many more, myself included, were regional FOs... or on furlough... or struggling CFIs... etc.
And now, thanks to that delay, I HAVE TO work to 65 to get to the point I would've otherwise gotten to at 60. I don't want to work til I'm that old, but thanks to a lot of greedy selfish people, I now have to.
Theres no way to spin this that it was a good thing for most airline pilots. It screwed us over. All because a select few thought they didn't have to play by the rules that our career is based upon.
