I could actually see a legacy buying us and keep running as a separate LLC similar to what Lufthansa is doing with Germanwings. Lots of advantages doing so.

 

They'll fix it, when we get a contract in 2020 and we don't have "Junior CAs"

So frustrating

 

And you'd rather have your paying customers squished in narrow seats?

 

That's pretty true now. In 2013-2014 we had quite a few 5-6 year Captains leave when the gates first really opened at UA and AA. Mostly guys that lived in one of those bases, and were mid-30s. Also was prior to the ALPA vote. Most of us are staying put and riding it out now.

 

It's their choice if it's between being squished or paying more, anyway entirely for a different thread

 

I think the same kinda applies to VX as well.

 

The main point is the government deregulated the airlines a long time ago. Now from a safety standpoint they still have the responsibility to regulate airlines via the FAA and DOT, however, when it comes to inflight service (seating, food, amenities, etc), the government has no business telling airlines how to run. Either re-regulate the industry, or leave them alone and let them run their own services the way they desire. You can't just pick something and say 35" should be a law because a politician said so.

 

I think you'll start to see the LCCs have junior CA attrition when the bottom of their seniority lists turn into revolving doors as legacies hire more LCC pilots.

Just look at regionals. Their entire seniority lists are moving backward due to their seniority lists shrinking. The same is very likely to happen at the LCCs within a few years. All of a sudden, those junior CAs today end up flying a lot of trips as senior FOs because the company can't keep FOs on property. Will the LCCs pay junior CAs left seat pay to sit in the right seat? Not when it becomes a regular thing and they have to downgrade junior CAs to FO.

I listened to the person in charge of hiring at United speak to a small group of pilots a few weeks ago about hiring at United and he expressed concern about the stack of applications shrinking. If the legacies are expressing concern about the smaller hiring pool, I've got to imagine it is getting a lot tougher at the LCCs.

A recent United class had 23 newhires; out of those 23, at least one was from Spirit and one was from Allegiant. Granted, both were FOs but LCCs are going to find themselves unable to grow because they'll have to be hiring as many as possible just to keep up with attrition.

As far as future pay trends, I think that the legacies will be able to throw money at pilots a lot faster than LCCs because legacies will be able to raise ticket prices faster than LCCs. A businessman will have to/be able to pay higher ticket prices while a family will be more reluctant to take a vacation if ticket prices rise significantly.

 

I had a conversation on the jumpseat back in 2012 with a regional crew. The FO was applying to all legacies. The CA had more than a decade at the company and was hesitant to walk away from his seniority - he was still on the fence whether or not to bail to a legacy. I told him that I expected his seniority to move backward over the coming years due to all of the attrition at the bottom. And that's exactly what's happened over the last three years - the CA's seniority has moved backward. I expect LCCs to see the same backward movement in seniority within the next few years.

Not at all likely for a number of reasons.

 

This is exactly why scope is the #1 section in any Legacies contract. If they could have gotten away with that, they would have about 15 years ago!

Not going to happen and to stay at an LCC in hopes of being absorbed by a Legacy in the future would be a big mistake IMHO.

Stay at a LCC because your home every night, they base you in a city you want to live, you don't want to be bothered learning different aircraft types throughout your career, or you don't want to have to think about how to best invest your excess 401K contributions.

But don't stay there thinking that one day a legacy will purchase you.

I could maybe see a day where the LCC's combine, or even SWA buys one for more airport access and to put down some competition, but really can't see a legacy wanting it (or it's employees to allow it in the manner you suggest).