|
Originally Posted by say again
(Post 2079358)
Why is it inevitable?
|
Originally Posted by Andy
(Post 2079397)
Look at new student/private/commercial/ATP certificates issued over the last decade. The pipeline of new pilots looks bleak right now which means airlines are going to try to hire as many qualified pilots as they can get their hands on.
The hiring at legacies over the last four years has turned the regionals from well staffed to train wrecks. And the hiring at legacies during that time is only enough to meet retirements plus minor growth. Legacy retirements alone require ~2000 new hires per year. Let's not forget that all airlines - legacies, LCCs, and regionals are fishing from the same pond of pilot candidates. The legacies are able to offer better 'bait' (pay, QOL) than LCCs and regionals. This has already started killing the regionals. I expect the same to happen to LCCs, as I don't think that they can compete against the legacies for a smaller pilot pool. We'll either see a huge surge in new pilot certificates which will meet demand for pilots or the LCCs will start having problems recruiting and retaining pilots within the next few years. |
Originally Posted by tailendcharlie
(Post 2079435)
He's probably doing everything right.
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...s-big-3-a.html Not saying throw a pity party, just accept that right now if you're civilian, non-flow-through, it's really tough to get the call. Maybe in a few years barring any industry shocks things will loosen up. The end game will be a return of all flying done in house, or at least by wholly owned subsidiaries, and creating a defined career path for the regionals. |
Originally Posted by Andy
(Post 2079424)
It may end up being the best money you've ever spent. You sound very well qualified; there may be something you're doing/not doing that they will find.
I consider the money I spent on interview prep to be some of the best spent money I've done. I have no ties to any interview consultants; just recommending it because we all can be blind to stuff that ends up being a huge hindrance to getting hired. Good luck to ya. |
Originally Posted by FirstClass
(Post 2079445)
Yep. The mathematics of the problem do not stop at the regional airlines door step.
Not saying we couldn't be affected by a pilot shortage. I just don't find it very likely. |
Originally Posted by rvr1800
(Post 2079462)
Jetblue has enough qualified apps each application window to replace our entire seniority list.
Not saying we couldn't be affected by a pilot shortage. I just don't find it very likely. |
Originally Posted by VegassBus
(Post 2079402)
My management has nothing to do with what I think I should be paid. What they think and what I think is completely different.
I apologize. I spoke incorrectly. I said bailout, I don't know why I said that, I meant Bankrputcy....... I Those BK's were not caused by pilot salaries, but since bringing the companies to BK court (to account for a multitude of strategical errors by mgmt over the previous decade), they go after labor as well because it's mgmts only time to get what they want inserted into a contract. Do you think a legacy would have allowed PBS without BK court threat? 50% pay cuts? Etc, etc. BK court is why you still get a decent rate on corporate bonds, because they're only as good as the corp mgmt to make good strategic business decisions. Vegas, you have all the wickets in place. Plan a small vacation, that will garner you a call from a major, when you least expect or want it. I can hardly wait till next Xmas when your newly trained behind will be stuck on reserve in NYC and you couldn't drop due to coverage! |
Originally Posted by full of luv
(Post 2079475)
No problems.... Like another poster pointed out, its the DIP financing and broad discretion allowed a BK judge that makes BK a modern day restructuring tool.
Those BK's were not caused by pilot salaries, but since bringing the companies to BK court (to account for a multitude of strategical errors by mgmt over the previous decade), they go after labor as well because it's mgmts only time to get what they want inserted into a contract. Do you think a legacy would have allowed PBS without BK court threat? 50% pay cuts? Etc, etc. BK court is why you still get a decent rate on corporate bonds, because they're only as good as the corp mgmt to make good strategic business decisions. Vegas, you have all the wickets in place. Plan a small vacation, that will garner you a call from a major, when you least expect or want it. I can hardly wait till next Xmas when your newly trained behind will be stuck on reserve in NYC and you couldn't drop due to coverage! |
Originally Posted by Andy
(Post 2079397)
Look at new student/private/commercial/ATP certificates issued over the last decade. The pipeline of new pilots looks bleak right now which means airlines are going to try to hire as many qualified pilots as they can get their hands on.
The hiring at legacies over the last four years has turned the regionals from well staffed to train wrecks. And the hiring at legacies during that time is only enough to meet retirements plus minor growth. Legacy retirements alone require ~2000 new hires per year. Let's not forget that all airlines - legacies, LCCs, and regionals are fishing from the same pond of pilot candidates. The legacies are able to offer better 'bait' (pay, QOL) than LCCs and regionals. This has already started killing the regionals. I expect the same to happen to LCCs, as I don't think that they can compete against the legacies for a smaller pilot pool. We'll either see a huge surge in new pilot certificates which will meet demand for pilots or the LCCs will start having problems recruiting and retaining pilots within the next few years. The ULCCs create revenue under wider profit margins than the Legacies. Will the pay come up for ULCCs as the competition for qualified pilots increases, the simple answer is "yes" because they can budget for higher pay. Otherwise explain to me how LCC Southwest pilots were once the bottom-feeders in pay, and over time their pay was increased steadily to put them on top for narrowbody pay? And somehow even with those top-of-the-heap pay rates Southwest has maintained its reputation on Wall Street for reliable profitablity! It starts with a successful business plan. As a small and successful business either you're bought up by the bigger competition or you manage to remain independent and grow. In the case of ULCCs, if the business does well, eventually the pilots do well. If a ULCC is bought, it is to be merged, not liquidated (it would be foolish to suggest otherwise). There is a lot of precedant to prevent pilots of a successful airline from being stapled to the bottom of a list. So the question really is, do you see the ULCC business plan as sustainable or unsustainable? ... Legacies, LCCs, ULCCs, they all have risks! |
Originally Posted by MtnPeakCruiser
(Post 2079547)
You're focusing on the fact that Legacies (withstanding) are, at this moment, the most desirable destination due to pay, QOL, etc. Everything is relative to timing; so would you have turned down a job at Southwest in the late 90s (or even post 9/11) in favor of a Legacy job? Not unless you wanted to spend nearly a decade furloughed. How will your legacy perform under the next economic downturn or $100+ per barrel oil prices? If your Legacy airline starts to lose money, you're one of the first to get the boot.
The ULCCs create revenue under wider profit margins than the Legacies. Will the pay come up for ULCCs as the competition for qualified pilots increases, the simple answer is "yes" because they can budget for higher pay. Otherwise explain to me how LCC Southwest pilots were once the bottom-feeders in pay, and over time their pay was increased steadily to put them on top for narrowbody pay? And somehow even with those top-of-the-heap pay rates Southwest has maintained its reputation on Wall Street for reliable profitablity! It starts with a successful business plan. As a small and successful business either you're bought up by the bigger competition or you manage to remain independent and grow. In the case of ULCCs, if the business does well, eventually the pilots do well. If a ULCC is bought, it is to be merged, not liquidated (it would be foolish to suggest otherwise). There is a lot of precedant to prevent pilots of successful airline from being stapled to the bottom of a list. So the question really is, do you see the ULCC business plan as sustainable or unsustainable? ... Legacies, LCCs, ULCCs, they all have risks! At least that's how I understood it |
| All times are GMT -8. The time now is 11:08 PM. |
Website Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands