I cannot believe there is a pilot out there that thinks this.

Credibility is now zero.

 

Even if it were true, the whole point is that one scenario (other than "almost every") where everyone lives, or everyone dies

 

A couple of days of crappy NE weather should straighten all that out, bingo 73's everywhere.

 

The reason that NAI was approved is because there was no legal basis for its denial. It's more accurate to say that they were not disapproved than they were approved. Current cabotage laws expressly prohibit point to point domestic operations in the US by a foreign flag carrier. So in that case there is a legal basis for such a denial. However, laws can change. Legislators and the general public have absolutely no empathy for the airlines whatsoever.

 

I was called an idiot by someone for saying what I thought was going to happen, and then that same person went around and made one of his own predictions. I was pointing out his hypocracy.

I'm just stating what I think this means for the industry. Most of you don't believe me and say I'm being dramatic or drinking the coolaid, I say I'm being realistic and you are deluding yourselves.

I suspect the worthwhile jobs will no longer exist in 20-30 years. Will the legacies vanish? I don't know, I think that over a long enough period of time, the chances are nearly 100%. We are now effectively playing by a new set of rules, NAI and the companies that will follow will be playing by the new rules while United et al. will be playing by the old ones. But in my opinion it is safe to say that it will be almost impossible for someone applying to a legacy today to secure a permenant, rewarding spot on a legacy seniority list. Most of you don't want to hear it, or worse are clinging to hopeless salvation by stupid things like NAI not being able to secure slots or having fuel dispatch difficulties.

 

Yep. The Piedmont flows are horrible for the most part. Nice enough guys but so far out in left field it's scary.

 

I made ONE prediction because you asked for it.

Your post...#20 in this thread:

"There's nothing to predict. Spirit has an observable, competitive edge. If you had to bet, you would be foolish not to bet on spirit."

To which I replied in post #28:

"The only bet I'll make on Spirit is one for a takeover. If this industry goes down the path you seem to salivating over, Spirit won't exist in a decade and you'd be foolish to think that will mean you'll be in a better place because of it."

I'm not a hypocrite for doing what I was asked to do, which was make a bet, i.e. a prediction. I only did it because it was asked of me. Besides, predicting the success or demise of Spirit is hardly what I consider to be on a macro level in our industry. Given its tiny size, I wouldn't consider it a macro prediction like you are doing with NAI. It has far worse implications on the macro level than Spirit ever will.

EDIT: to make this even more clear, I never said all people making predictions were idiots. I said only those on the macro level.

You never answered my question either. Given your well documented stance on how NAI will impact the legacies, will you or will you not keep applying to the legacies?

 

This is a statement, not a question. "You would", not "would you?"

I never asked anyone to predict anything. I was hypothetically stating that if one had to make a bet, it would be silly to not bid on the one with the objective competitive advantage. Respectfully, I was not asking for you to give an opinion.

I will likely leave aviation. I just don't think its going to be a good job anymore, and if you use the last 16 years as any sort of indicator, its true. I'm still at the regionals, and like I said before, I think it will be almost impossible to secure a permanent, rewarding spot on a legacy seniority list for the next 20-30 years. I don't want to retire at an LCC, and I don't want to be stuck on the bottom of a shrinking legacy seniority list. Even if I'm wrong, and NAI has a minimal amount of impact, why risk it when there are, in my opinion, better options out there. I love flying but I will probably be better off and happier doing something else.

We just disagree as to the reach that this will have. 'NAI vs. The Big 3' is not what I am worried about. The issue is precedent. I think many of you are failing to consider what will happen once more foreign flag carriers enter the market (and they will). Will you feel safe at Delta if there are 2 foreign flag carriers competing with you? How about 3?

 

Wow, so before one job is gone, which isn't even an absolute certainty, and with only one foreign carrier attempting to compete you want to just push away from the table and essentially run away? Talk about a cowardly reaction. My gut tells me there's more to your personal story influencing this decision. To that I say keep it private and I wish you luck.

Do you honestly believe US carriers will just sit by and let NAI or anyone roll all over them? If so you truly don't understand the American spirit when it comes to competition. They claimed this tactic was illegal but so far the government doesn't think so. Our carriers will fight like hell to protect their market share, including I believe flying the same routes NAI will operate on.

Finally, I'll say it again for posterity's sake. The first real test for NAI will be when the global economy tanks again. The balance sheets of the legacies and some majors are much stronger than they've ever been. It wouldn't surprise me to see NAI tank when that day comes.

 

As I read about the tragedy in Pakistan regarding an ATR42 plowing into a mountaintop, can you elaborate on where you get this supposed knowledge of AA flow through training problems? Do you work in the training center there and have first hand knowledge? You said "in fact", so please elaborate.