I was told recently that the attrition rate is as low as as 2 per month and as much as 5. But, with CLT closing those senior CA's might have a fire lit under their arse to get moving to the majors or corporate.

 

Are there CAs and senior FOs (or even pilots not willing to commute) that would either jump ship to PSA or move on?

 

Don't remember where I heard it, but I had heard an average of 8/month. Yikes, 2-5 is pathetic with the amount of mainline hiring going on.

 

At 5/month leaving that's only a 7% yearly attrition rate. The % of lifers must be a lot higher there than at most other regionals.

 

Not sure why CA and senior FO's would jump to PSA? Most are probably looking to move on. I've spoken with several that some would consider to be in the "lifer" seniority range who would love to move on.

The majors have really only just started hiring. Barring some major unforeseen event, attrition will no doubt pick up in the next couple of years.

 

ORD and CLT CA's and FO's are moving to IAD. This will make IAD very senior. We will see what happens in the months to come. Should be very interesting.
Do any senior CA's or FO's read this and could shed a little more light into their situation?

 

So there is an FAA-issued regulatory interpretation stating that 135 cargo-only time doesn't count, but a local FSDO is saying it does count.

^^^This is why no one should arrogantly proclaim they "found the answer in 5 minutes" then be a tool about it--there is almost never a cut-and-dry answer to these types of issues, especially in 121 with newly-issued regs.

 

Yeah it's pretty low. A lot of the senior pilots in CLT had only one reason to look elsewhere. They lived in Carolina so naturally they would look at one carrier. USAirways for the CLT base and that was it. For many that was a lost cause just do to the fact that airways wasn't really hiring and used to have terrible starting pay plus a not so good standing+contract. Recently Airways picked up hiring and with a merger things are now looking up for them.

The problem for the senior CLT guys at mesa is that life has been okay for them. Live able wages combined with easy commute and seniority in base. 10+years flew by and now it likes "oh snap I haven't even had a training event in forever?"

Even with all of this, many will hold on and ride charlotte out until the last man. Then I gather many will go to IAD merely due to various Carolina hubs with flights to IAD, Not to mention the ability to commute IAD will be on express. Possibly commute (UAX-mesa) from GSO,CLT,RDU etc. or wherever these guys live in the Carolina's.

The commute to DFW might be a little more challenging plus mainline AA commuters and USEast guys that live in Dallas might make for a challenge. The slight time change and lower priority will not help.

I doubt any will jump to PSA except the "new" new hire FO's like RV5M that are easily impressed and don't have anything to lose.
Mesa will go bite the bullet for PSA in DFW and let them avoid that brouhaha.

 

That's a fantasy--Mesa isn't that dumb, and they are wayyyyy too cost conscious to allow senior CLT CAs to downgrade for even a day, knowing that it'll create two training events down the road (an EJet upgrade and a CRJ upgrade to backfill).

They know very well that CLT CAs might try to involuntarily downgrade to do exactly what you're saying, which is why they'll either:

a) Run a huge all-pilot/all-base system standing bid, ensuring that IAH/EJet is blocked from any existing CRJ CA (and that no involuntary displacements to FO occur).

and/or

b) Close CLT all at once, and if they need a short draw-down period, TDY CAs & FOs back to CLT from DFW/IAD/ORD/PHX for up to 112 days as they gradually wind down CLT operations (alternatively, they could easily cover any remaining CLT flying with IAD reserves)

What I'm saying is there is no way Mesa will fuddle up the CLT and ORD drawdowns in a way that allows any CLT/ORD captains to be involuntarily displaced to FO--they know better.

Do you see a single ORD captain being involuntarily displaced to ORD FO? Nope. They aren't gonna close it in a way that lets that happen.

 

They would do it for two reasons. One if they lived in Houston or maybe Austin, and two, because the CLT to DFW commute is going to be saturated with the massive closure of the CLT base. Remember there is about 300 pilots that are going to be going to either IAD or CLT. By going over to the EJet, they have less competition to CLT and way more seniority. Like within the top 25-30 on the EJet list. I am a Captain, and I have already heard of a few Captains wanting to downgrade to move the the EJet.
Unless Mesa issues one Massive Displacement covering until June with class dates that far out, Mesa has no way to circumvent the contract allowing people to downgrade. That is and has always been an option. Mesa has never issued a Displacement that far out. They can't plan farther then next month so downgrades are very possible. This will be my 5th time getting displaced so I have it pretty well covered with all the rules and little tricks and its only fair to share with others since were all in this together. Upward and Onward!