I was reminded of this article - http://hbr.org/2014/05/in-hiring-alg...-instinct/ar/1

 

During the last bid (the 4 CA's for Phoenix), the next guy up for upgrade would have been an IAD FO hired last April.

 

Did not see that. If that's true....wow.

 

No next guy down was a furlough recall hired in 2008 who just now got back, but I don't think he has the 1,000 hours 121 time (which the company is FINALLY checking on the revised Captain quals worksheet).

 

There are lots and lots and lots of people who have PHX-only or IAH-only (or PHX/IAH-only) CA bids in. Just look at the recently updated "All Pilot Standing Bids" document.

 

This isn't technically correct.

There is a good chance the next IAD CRJ CA vacancies could reach the April 2013 hires, but there are at least 30-50 active FOs hired before 2013 who have IAH, PHX, and IAH/PHX-only CA bids on file.

If you want to upgrade quick, now is the time to put IAD CA down on your bid preferences!!!

 

Come at me bro.

 

What is the likely base to get out of training?
Is holding a line possible out of training or does it take awhile?

 

The base seniority order is IAD-CLT-PHX. The recent base shakeup with ORD closing and IAH starting up makes it hard to say what reserve times will be.

 

Holding a line in IAD out of training is very likely. CLT maybe 1-2 months at present, although that's going to change very quickly when ORD closes imho.

The planes from ORD are moving to IAD, but the crews aren't going to want to follow them there.

So, in Sept. when ORD closes, here is what will probably happen:

1) ORD Western commuters are going to cram down into PHX
2) Midwestern/ORD-dwelling folks are going to pile into CLT/PHX, since no one wants to do hub-to-hub (IAD)
3) IAD is going to simultaneously get 20 more planes, and the only people to fly them will be:
a) People bumped-and-flushed into IAD from PHX/CLT
b) New hires

This is just speculation on my part, but I've spent enough time looking over the standing bid reports, and been through enough displacements/bankruptcy proceedings/base closures/etc..--anytime you close a moderately senior base (ORD) and move that flying to the most junior base (IAD), it's going to cause a cramdown in the other bases (PHX/CLT).

It's simple math--no one in ORD wants to be in IAD, or IAD would've been junior to ORD all this time.

What that means for a new hire is this--you're probably either going to IAH or IAD, and you'll prob have a line very quickly in IAD.

Same goes for CAs--if you bid IAD CA now, you're going to have a line very, very quickly, esp. once those 20 planes come in from ORD.