2dotslow

My .02, Duke. I'm a retired USAF and legacy (cough) airline pilot. As you can easily discern on this forum, the airline industry is in turmoil right now. Hell, I was furloughed after over 11 years, but chose to retire (again at age 54) instead. You're what, 32 maybe 33 years old now? If you opt to suck it up and retire as a LtCol/Col, you'll have (assuming a normal life expectancy) a fairly nice (like $1.5 mil) 401K that you start drawing one month after you get out...a comfortable stipend to tide you over during the tough times. And, who knows, maybe by that time there will be some stability on the outside. You'll still be very competitive, and with the large numbers of retirements pending at the airlines over that period, a hiring phase like the one I experienced in the late 80s may happen. This is all conjecture, of course, and you have to do whatever you feel is best. But, there has to be more incentive to stay in than just a bonus (ha, in my day it was the leather jacket...) so weigh your options carefully. Listen to what others, even those above you have to say. I was a fighter squadron commander, I talked to lots of guys who were putting in their DOS. Some, I tried like crazy to get 'em to stay in...and some did. Others, I hopped-up, shook their hand, wished them well at airline-X, and went to the club with the rest of my boys to celebrate our luck in the fact that those types were leaving. Which of those guys are you? Just food for thought.

Duke

2dots,

Sir, great advice and things to think about. I have definitely crunched the numbers on the retirement $$$ and concur. It is a good chunk of change just to be chunking it away. But here's my concern: what good does it do me if I stay in, retire, and die at 42 of a heart attack because I'm working 60-70 hour work weeks for 20 years. I don't know when you retired....but I'm not exaggerating. The work is still there and we just keep getting smaller and smaller (reference the 40K additional personnel the AF is shaving over the next few years during "force shaping"). I've heard stories about the days (1980's??) of the guys going to play golf if they weren't scheduled to fly. Those days are gone forever.....have been for a long time now.

Bonus is not a big deal but here's what bothers me......knowing that Joe Bagodonuts who sluffs off everything, makes everybody else pull his weight, and then puts an extra 25K a year in his pocket for the next ten years while his peers that are 1-2 years his junior get squat. The military needs to put more emphasis on merit and job performance and less on time in grade and a pulse. What's my motivation to stay?.....might as well role the bones, give the civilian world a shot, and if it doesn't work out, I come back into the military (NLT 5 yrs later) to finish out my 20 and retire as a LtCol. I know plenty of dudes that did just that (because of Sept 11th furloughs). Nothing's a guarantee of course and they could always say no thanks....but I've got a good record and I'm keeping it that way. I'm not closing any doors.....

As far as talking to my Sq/CC. I don't think he could influence my decision because he has no control of what I want. I know your raising your eyebrows... so let me explain. I am a school select for ACSC. So, I know where I'm going next. My problem is there is no guarantee in where I go after that. They could send me back to another FS and I don't want that anymore. 10 years in the CAF is enough (reference the deployments to too many sandy locations and being shot at). If I could just get that (school, staff, RTU, then retire).....sign me up and stick the bonus up their butt. I know too many dudes that were non-vol'd right from school back to the FS and that would kill me.... probably literally. My boss could control where I go from here....but after that, it's AF needs (It's really always AF needs...but we all know that).

Believe me....nobody bleeds Blue more than I. I love my AF. Service before self, Integrity, Exellence in all we do. But we all have limits......and the service before self in the military is being strained more than it has in a long time. [veterens....no disrespect intended....I know there has been MUCH tougher times in our history]

I know I'm a keeper and I know my boss would fight to get me to stay. That's what I'm afraid of. My heart and loyalty to my AF would get in the way, then I would end up staying.....only to die a couple years after retirement and leave my two girls without a father on HS graduation day.

VR
Duke

wldplt

Duke

Sounds like the ops tempo has picked up a lot since I left in '94. I was in GW one and we had some long deployments but things got back to normal after the war was over. From your post it sounds like that hasn't come close to happening for you. You mentioned Reserve and Guard in a previous post but their ops tempo is pretty high also.

It sounds like you've pretty much made up your mind. Just be advised, things aren't always greener on the other side. Getting and keeping a good airline job for 20-30 years has become a total crap shoot. Even legacy airlines go away. There are only 2 airlines that I consider to have any real staying power and they are FedEx and UPS but technological innovations may even kill them off someday. I've certainly been lucky since I got out and have been with the same airline for 11+ years but we've been near bankruptcy once and could be again. We've got guys from United, US Air, TWA, and ATA flying with us. We've also got guys here who have been through as many as 7 airlines and several who have been around when they closed the door on more than one occasion. My best advice for you if you bail would be to have a backup career or maybe rely on your spouse's income until you feel more secure. Hope you get your dream job and it works out great for you (and you make your daughters graduations!).

2dotslow

Duke: first things first...I'm not the kind of guy to raise my eyebrows, OK? Now, I'll assume you're a Major-selectee ...ACSC slot kinda gives it away. Do you realize how much golf you'll get in while at school? Maxwell has 2 courses, hell your handicap will be in single digits after a year down there. What's more, you'll have a chance to network for a follow-on assignment. I know the service fills its needs first, and it's a crapshoot, but the odds of finding some other interesting out-of-cockpit endeavor are greatly enhanced post grad by the contacts you make there. After you (theoretically) complete a staff-level assignment, you'll be a light col-selectee, and when you go back to a squadron-level job, they (USAF) will be grooming you for command. Then the fun really starts. FWIW, there is absolutely no such animal as merit or emphasis on job performance with the airlines...simply show-up, pass your checkrides, engage in lively debates on whether or not to wear your hat, etc...yawn. I guess promotion is the military's motivation, and it comes much more slowly in the civvy world. You can wind up being a co-pilot for some of the wizards you hear from on this site, as seniority covers all bets and bettors. I notice you've used guarantee several times, and just like the AF, you'll be hard-pressed to find it in the airlines. Several are just one terrorist attack (either here at home, or in some way that snarls the oilflow and consequently its barrel price) away from oblivion, and a few more are almost as shakey. Lastly, quit worrying about dying. That crapshoot is out of everybody's hands, and you just have to keep on rolling with what you know. Best of luck, whatever you decide to do. I'll bet both of my ample retirements that you'll see those graduations.

Duke

WLDPLT and 2dots,

Great words and I really appreciate it. You guys are making me think about things I haven't thought about in a while and from a different perspective.

It sounds like I need to factor in "job security" a little higher on my decision matrix and I think that I will pass on the "bonus" and just see how the timing is in about 2 years. The freedom to choose is always a good thing I think.

In the meantime, I think I'll continue to groom myself to be competitive either direction I go; meaning I'll continue to stay competitive in the military, but continue to pursue qualifications that will make me more attractive to the airline (ATP complete, so I think I'm progressing).

My biggest problem is that I'm impatient. I see other's that are senior in age in leadership positions and we all know that age, wisdom, and experience are all a part of making a leader....but definitely not the most important ingredients. I think the AF getting rid of the BTZ to Major was a mistake. However, just like 2dots points out, it's worse in the airlines. That would aggravate me to no end. Maybe the airlines are not for me.

As far as the death thing....I'm not worried about it. I'm just more sensitive to how short life is. I was WIA in Iraq in Mar2003 and the two little ones I've got now were almost not to be. I think anyone who has been in a near death experience views the world with new eyes. Maybe that's why the "queep factor" that's involved with all government jobs bothers me so much now. My tolerance for it is very low now that I've got a whole new perspective. But, I'm sure you've got some of that no matter where you work if it's a large organization.

Vr
Duke

Duke

2 Dots,

By the way -- I'm going to hold you to your 2 retirement bet....I'll put it in my will

Duke

2dotslow

Whoa! I'm gonna have to hedge my bets here. Who'd have thunk you were a SAM Magnet! Actually, my vehicle got tapped 3 times in SEA, but I never got a scratch. Still have a hunk of Chicom-made 37mm AAA shrapnel sittin' around somewhere. Didn't know they'd done away with the O-4 BTZ promotions, but >99% of those selected (at least in my day) were nothing other than butt-boys for some general or Assist. SecDef, SecAF, etc. C'est la vie. At any rate, good luck with your career decisions. Nothing is perfect, and someday you'll probably come to the same realization that I have...when you were in you couldn't believe how screwed-up the service was...when you get out, you find that by comparison with the outside world, it was a pretty smooth-run operation. Congrats on your Heart, don't worry too much about the other one.

Duke

No heart for me. I was fragged by a disgruntled Army guy that I never met. He decided to toss a grenade into my tent! Oh well, I guess you can't make everybody happy.

Duke

T-tail

Duke,
I am a 90 grad of EKU, I never thought anybody else made it out of there, much less make the ACSC list. I did 10 years active working for uncle sugar just like you described. I got out in '01 and hired on with a little cargo company based in memphis. I have never regretted that, because my timing was right. But in today's hiring environment, I am not sure what I would do. There are only a few strong companies hiring, and they are very competitive. But very much worth it if you can get one of those jobs. Have you considered going Active Guard/Reserve?

Duke

T-Tail,

Awesome, now their are two of us out there. Go Colonels and Go Big Blue!!

I've thought about the Guard/Reserve. I've thought about contacting some guys that I know in the Boise ANG. We've bought some land out there and plan on retiring in that area....it's just a matter of when.

Everybody tells me that the Guard isn't what it used to be though. I've heard those guys deploy pretty often too now that we've got this "total force" thing going on in the AF. But, I guess everything's (guard/active duty/airlines/ etc) not "what it used to be."

I haven't done any research on the airlines in that area yet so don't know what living and commuting in that area would be like. I imagine I'd have to get hired by an airline that flys out of Salt Lake City.

Duke