SandMan2

Yes, CAFB, I agree. There's not a whole lot to distinguish between 0-3's at that point, so they rely heavily on Master's and SOS in residence. Unfortunately for me I started my Master's too late, and was foolish enough to go with a brick and mortar school so I can only take 2 classes a year, unlike some other online-only schools where you can get several courses in one year.

CAFB 04-12

Here's a thread from a few years ago that addresses the topic of lifetime earnings if deciding to stay to 20 or get out at the end of the UPT commitment.

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/mi...ould-i-go.html

If the hiring boom comes to pass in a couple years like everyone is predicting, that would make the decision a little easier.

Either way, I'm stuck till 2014.

Hacker15e

There have been a couple of interesting discussions on several internet forums that I've had since running those numbers 4 years ago (here's an example of one of 'em from here at APC: http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...-airlines.html).

Most of the discussions were debates over the numbers and assumptions used (you see some of those types of posts in that very thread). Some of them were people who made their own earnings comparisons using their own take on the assumptions on both sides. The bottom line on all those discussions remains that it's basically a wash financially between the two career paths (excluding the safety net aspect of the monthly retirement check for the two military paths I explored). Again, this has to be viewed in perspective of the pre-9/11 'truth' which said that it was a no-brainer to leave to the airlines as soon as humanly possible.

What's new since 2007 (and this update I posted in 2010) is that long term career expectations (in the USAF, at least) have changed, and I bet will continue to change. The current budget crisis, along with the upcoming drawdown of OND and OEF, means that they're looking for ways to trim people from the force. It's no longer a sure thing to even make it to retirement. There are a whole bunch of O-4s who expected to be able to ride it out all the way to 20 years, but are being shown the door later this year. There are a whole bunch of Captains who asked to be let out on their own terms (via VSP) but are suddenly being shown the door on Uncle Sugar's terms (via RIF).

Remember that in 2007, a good number of airlines were hiring like crazy, and by 2009 or so that hiring had stopped, and even back-pedaled into some furloughs. Things change fast. The REAL game changer will be if this post-age-65-retirements-starting "pilot shortage" materializes. The funny thing is that timing happens to coincide with a whole truckload of military pilots, fed up with how they've been treated over the last decade, who are planning to leave in droves (or talking about it, at least).

I still think that staying with the military as long as you are able is the smartest of the options (due to the stability offered by the pension and health care retirement currently offers), but that has to be balanced with your own personal and family desires for QOL.

CAFB 04-12

Indeed, it is a very large carrot. Unfortunately, the stick is also quite big. It will be interesting to see if the 2002-2003 year groups (myself included) put their money where their mouth is in 2013-2014 and bail like they're (we're) talking. The safety net of the military pension is very valuable to me, and makes the decision a particularly difficult one.

Hacker15e

I have to wonder if the next couple years are going to get as significant as the early 90s drawdown, both in terms of Big Blue cutting people involuntarily and people leaving on their own accord. Coupled with another airline hiring boom (or even simply a recovery from the recession), that would make the decision to get out, I think, much easier.

I find it interesting that the USAF's non-continuations for passed over O-4s started with the 1996 year group...which is considered to be the first year group that wasn't impacted by the post-Cold War/Desert Storm drawdown!

webecheck

hacker, a betting man would say this will be worse.

Hacker15e

Are there any particular specifics which lead you to believe that?

The 1990s USAF drawdown cut 30% of people, planes, and bases. I haven't heard any numbers yet for this current affair that even approach those.

webecheck

cuz this time the govt is broke! and all those with pensions would rather see those who havent earned one cut from the potential list than have their current pension impacted at present or in the future.

this will get much worse before it gets any better. i pray for a 15 yr lump sup buyout option.

HuggyU2

Spoken like a true airline pilot!

Sputnik

I don't necessarily think we'll have much of a drawdown, though the booting of the passed over Maj's was something of a surprise [to me]. I just think people will leave given the chance. On that line, the 600 rated who applied for VSP was another surprise.

I don't judge state of morale by internet kvetching, but from what I can tell there are a lot of unhappy rated guys out there. I was a FAIP in the late 90s, when retention was about zero. The attitudes were about the same as now, and potentially the state of a airlines is allegedly as well. Remember, the AF hosed everyone over in the early 90s, the guys I'm talking about survived all that. But were somehow so irritated by how they were treated and possibly even more so by how everyone else was treated, they punched at their very first chance. I remember getting briefed that our [DLF] bonus take rate was single digits. That was the last time they ever told us what it was.

The point I'm attempting, when these guys left it wasn't because the AF wanted them to leave, it was because policy decisions and [arguably] bad leadership in prior years alienated them at the same time as there were many attractive options on the outside. And did they ever bolt, remember the attempts to stop it--20 year bonus, 1 year bonus? And finally the ever popular 10 year commitment?

I will point out that an awful lot of those guys came right back in after the airlines imploded, and I'm glad they made it. I also have friends that went to SWA and....I hate my life.

Back on topic, my personal opinion, I kind of think we're about to see an exodus. How big, who knows? If the oft foretold "pilot shortage" on outside finally comes to pass, it could be huge as it will not only attract the disaffected but those just seeking greener grass.