are you saying folks hired within the next 6-12 months might see a 5 year flow again?

Flows in the next 6-12 months right around 5 years, then begins to creep up. I think it’s a bit more than 12 months, but not much. Not sure when the 25/month classes really kicked in...

This is great news for those moving up and it’s nice to see vs the lost decade.

No. The people that were hired during 2014-2016 will be the ones to flow in the roughly 5 year time span. The people currently flowing are the ones that were hired during that time frame, thus all pilots that flow over the next 12-18 months (my opinion), will be that group of people.

Someone hired today is looking at far longer than 5 years to flow.

No. I’m sorry if I worded my statement in a confusing manner. Anyone hired after 2016 is in for a long wait unless something changes and fast. This has been beat to death in the main thread with different projections etc. but I think I’ll be a 7-8 year flow. I hope I’m wrong. But apps are out as it’s had to justify 8 years of Pdt qol without at least an attempt to improve my situation.

Still pretty amazing to go from zero 121 time to American Airlines in 4+ years. How old is the youngest person? To flow, I mean.

Someone please explain to mgmt & recruiting why someone hired today can’t possibly expect to flow in 5 years. So frustrating to hear the same ole story from the higher ups. Almost like it’s the only carrot they have left.

So, how long to flow for someone hired in 2020??

you can shake a magic eight ball but probably 6-65 years. Who knows it depends on voodoo math to figure out what it really will be after attrition.

From another post AA is the one who calculates the estimated flows. It is based on projected attrition both with and outside of the flow. It takes hiring of all major airlines into account, with normal retirements, and estimated number of employees that will leave to go elsewhere.
The flaw in these flow calculations is that they underpredicted the number of pilots who would be too lazy to apply outside of the flow and to work hard to try to get hired somewhere else. At last check, less than 18% of the AA WO pilots even have an updated application in with any major airline. This is insane.
So, the flow will likely be 6 years or less, that is true. The only thing that will make it more is pilots not trying to get hired before.
DoNoHarm is correct. AA calculates flow almost down to the person with projected dates for low, medium and high attrition. The latest numbers (yesterday) show a pilot hired in January/February 2020 will flow to AA between 4 years and 7 months (high attrition) and 5 years and 8 months (low attrition).That being said, AA hired three Piedmont pilots outside of the flow in January so far, which means attrition is already going to lean toward the high side this month.