Originally Posted by BRubble (Post 2986794)

Not Trans States
PSA flow is way too long
Republic doesn’t have a flow, but running a good operation. Probably won’t do enough flying there.
Prefer to be on the East Coast, so no Sky West
Worried about the stability of CommutAir

Originally Posted by Bluetaildragger (Post 2962455)

I will show some very simple math and basic reasoning as to why you are completely bonkers if you believe this stuff.

700 (pilots) - 60 (lifers) = 640 pilots who want to flow

640 (pilots) / 6 (flows per month) = 106.6 months or 8 years and 10 or 11 months. We all know that's not realistic with people leaving for other opportunities.

So let's take a look at your number of 4 years and 7 months (55 months). To make that math work, an average of 11.63 people would need to leave Piedmont every single month to make the most basic of math equations true (640/55). Does that sound anywhere close to what you're seeing with your own two eyes? Sure isn't what I've seen.

How about the "low attrition" calculation of 5 years and 8 months (or 68 months)? 9.41 departures per month. A little bit closer to reality, but again this is just the most basic and flawed understanding of calculating flow times.

Why is it basic and flawed? Because these calculations assume that these 10 or 11 or 12 people leaving a month are ALL senior to you. So when your seniority is number 100, 11 people are still leaving in front of you. Does that sound anywhere close to what you're seeing with your own two eyes?

The reality is that the higher you climb up the list, the less likely that people leaving will be senior to you. In other words, the lower your seniority number, the lower the attrition senior to you. Attrition senior to you is the only thing that matters.

By my non-scientific estimation, for an average of 11 people senior to you to leave the list every single month, Piedmont would need to be absolutely hemorrhaging pilots at a rate or about 18 a month and I think that's being conservative. Again, no basis in math here but if you understand my logic up to this point then you see where I'm coming from. Come up with your own number if you wish but rest assured that would have to sit well above 11 to be realistic.


There are already new guys quoting your crackpot estimations here. People who are brand new to the airlines and make decisions based solely off stuff they read here. You owe it to them to at least try to be transparent and present the facts as they are, rather than spew propaganda as if it's fact.

Originally Posted by BRubble (Post 2987227)

Not rationalizing. PSA is advertising a 6 to 7 year flow for someone hired today. By your logic,it would be 8 to 10 years. Either way, too long when there are other options.

Originally Posted by IFly145 (Post 2988454)

You realize that you don’t have to wait to flow. Plenty of pilots leave prior to the flow. The difference is that if you go to an United Express or Delta Connection carrier and you don’t land a job out of your preferential interview, you have reduced options.