Originally Posted by 272922

My personal guess (worth exactly what you paid for it) is that no one knows what the segment of the industry is going to look like in two years, either from a pilot supply perspective (see my above post) or a potential economic downturn perspective. The world will inevitably change.

Just keep doing what you're doing and the airlines will still be here in some form or fashion when you're ready.

Originally Posted by WhiteMorpheus

Early 40's plus 8 years to flow (hopefully a gross overstatement) is still 50ish, giving you 15 years at AA and a pretty good career.

Nothing in our flow agreement prevents going to mainline outside the flow, but those who attempt that need to have all the correct credentials for mainline (whatever those are at any given time).

Your lead time of two years is when the mainline mandatory retirements really start to peak with really high numbers through 2021, or so. When the retirements hit full swing, I would expect off-the-street interviews/hires to include increased competition from pilots at LCCs that see a glimpse of hope for a career at a major. If that's true, OAL hires will tend more toward the Spirit, JetBlue, and Allegiant types who, unsurprisingly, probably mostly came from non-WO regionals. I've never heard any of our pilots talking about going to one of those LCCs and missing out on the flow opportunity to AA we have. All that to say, if you go to a non-WO, don't rule out the possibility of having an additional job change before making the majors. Definitely check out the forums for the other regionals to see where their pilots go when they move on.

Some of us are hoping for a huge shift in the way the WOs are organized and their relationship to AA mainline in the next few years. We hope to get assigned AA seniority numbers, perhaps even with a pay and/or benefits package increase to go with them.

It seems like even the military hiring done by mainline is very selective. That group of 200, or so, and the roughly 30 pilots hired from non-WOs each year are the only ones that I see suffering from WO Pilots getting AA seniority numbers. I, and many other military guys and gals are still "doing our time" at the regionals because we don't meet the mainline selection criteria. If the only problem with a "great stapling" is a lack of consideration for pilots that could have gone directly to mainline, there could easily be provisions for an RJ lock that protects that prior experience.
(Example: have a 4000 hour RJ aircraft lock, adjusted based on PIC time in qualifying aircraft. A new hire with no 121 experience who upgrades to CA at 1000hrs would need to get 1500 hrs RJ PIC to break the seat lock 4000-1500=2500 RJ time, while a C-17 pilot with 8000hrs as PIC might have no lock at all. Those with enough prior experience would be "stuck" on the RJ only until their seniority could hold anything else)

This industry is always changing. The 2 years until you interview could be long enough to see something like this happen or the house of cards could come crashing down again. If you're lucky, a proposal like mine would be in serious discussion when you interview, only awaiting final consensus from all parties. You'd interview at a WO regional, start class, and then find yourself on the AA seniority list. It's probably all just a pipe dream, but a guy can hope.

Originally Posted by 272922

One of these days these razor sharp MBAs in the Metroplex will realize that they can have as many $25/hour new minted Riddle R-ATP RJ FOs as they can stand......

......on a mainline list.

Originally Posted by fenix1

Thanks a lot for the help here. There's a lot that's possible, but your point about facing increased competition for Big 3 jobs from the LCC's really hit home...although that begs the question of whether I'd be better off (i.e., get to Big 3 faster) by planning to fly for a non-WO regional, then an LCC, then Big 3 OR whether I should make it a goal to get on with one of the 3 WO's & flow to American (with potential to interview with Delta & United as well, of course).

If there's real potential for the "great stapling" to occur, then obviously that would steer me to one of the 3 WO's. If you were a betting man/woman, what odds would you give the "great stapling" of coming to fruition?

Originally Posted by WhiteMorpheus

For now it's mostly just wishful thinking and cockpit banter. I'd give it no more than a 10% chance of happening in the next 3 years. It would be a risky move on the company's part for a variety of reasons.

I don't think any regional pilot group outside the AA WOs can entertain such a discussion with any hope of it becoming reality.

Were that the only way coming to an AA WO made sense, I certainly wouldn't count on it. However, since that would just be icing on the cake, I like our odds.

Among the AA WOs we have a wide variety of bases: ORD, LGA, CLT, PHL, DFW, and DCA plus the PSA outstations in TYS, CVG, and DAY. We (PSA) have a solid, albeit slightly anemic, flow agreement which we expect to improve. And, even though we tend to play catch-up on pay scale, there is a strong possibility that we (all the WOs) will match or beat the Endeavor contract by later this year.

There are far worse places you could find yourself than stuck at an AA WO for your entire career.

Originally Posted by fenix1

What kind of things does a regional pilot need to do/accomplish to stand out to the Big 3 and get an interview & job offer???:
- Build as much TPIC time as possible & fly as much as possible overall each month?
- Is it huge to be a LCA and/or CP? (Or is this counter-productive because LCA & CP's don't fly as much as line CA's?)
- Volunteer and/or mentorship involvement?
- I have a Bachelors degree; should I plan on pursuing a Masters?
- What else?? It seems tough to stand out when so many regional pilots will have strong qualifications so I'm grateful for anyone who is good enough to highlight those things that need to be done to maximize opportunities with the Big 3.

Originally Posted by jetlag q

Anyone have insight with this question?

Originally Posted by jetlag q

Anyone have insight with this question?