Eventually 100% of the AA regional feed will be done by the 3 wholly owned carriers, all of them will have about 150 a/c (so only 450 AE RJs total). If you are a civilian pilot and are not at PSA, PDT, or Envoy it will be very tough to get hired at AA in the next decade. A merger will probably happen into one large regional but not for quite some time.

This is a 50/50 question. I go with yes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Predicting what happens next in the regionals is like predicting the winning numbers in the lottery! That's a fact...

If hired today, PSA is projecting a 24 month upgrade and 6.2 years to flow to AA. This is using the contractual flow and current retention rate for Capt. and F/O's.

Any idea of how many FO's were in the most recent class? I know that there were 4 in the one that started 2 weeks ago.

In 2015, American's mainline fleet size decreased while their total number of regional aircraft increased. Usairways had the largest percentage of regional aircraft to mainline and that management now runs AA. The AA fleet will shrink in 2016 also while United grows theirs. Not many regional aircraft are "scheduled" to leave the AA system in 2016 but a lot are being added. Good luck with that flow in 2016 with AA being stagnant seniority wise.

I'm not disagreeing with you but would you be nice enough to share your math on the 6.2 year flow? You do know it's only 5 per month right now? A lot has to happen for it to contractually increase to the cap of 8.

AA will be flying more block hours just with less aircraft which still requires more pilots, that coupled with retirements and AA will be hiring every year going forward. If you don't believe the flow will work I assume you have your apps out to other airlines?

That's true, I forgot about the block hour increase. The new 738s and 319/321 can handle more hours in a day than those ragged out MD80s. I want the flow to work, just not putting all my stock in it. From what I hear from mainline usairways pilots, things are really senior and stagnate. I've heard the opposite at at United, but again that's all hearsay.

Everyone's got their own prediction and number. Not saying one or the other is right or wrong. Keep in mind, it's all a prediction. If someone is telling you, you will flow in 6 years without adding a disclaimer, they are lying. You "may or may not flow" in six month "in my opinion" is a more fair statement.