Airline Pilot Central Forums - Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)

- Regional (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/)

- - Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/100265-whatever-happened-pilot-shortage.html)

Mesa:

January 2016

~1300

August 2016

~1277

August 2017

1178

Quote:

Originally Posted by tom11011 (Post 2421274)

There is probably an easier answer to this question where a true picture can be seen in very short order.

If one person from each regional airline who has kept their older seniority lists can post the total number of pilots on their roster for August of 2017 and August of 2016, that might show the trend.

I don't have access to old seniority lists atm, but at Trans States we have steadily hovered at 560 +/- 15 for the past 2 years. The current list has 572, and we dipped down to about 540 last fall when upgrades temporarily stagnated and the AA wholly-owneds raised their compensation package, then we've had a small uptick in numbers with the FO bonus and upgrades picking up.

My personal observation over the almost three years I've been here, there's been a lot of turnover of FOs, and the top maybe 30% of the seniority list hasn't had much movement. Of the senior guys there's been an occassional checkairman move up to delta/ FedEx/etc, and a few retirements. Of the people getting on at majors, it seems to be newer captains and some senior FOs that have been lucky enough to get the call. Then in the bottom part of the seniority list, there seems to be a lot of people going to LLCs and playing the regional shuffle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by deltajuliet (Post 2421475)

Mesa:

January 2016

~1300

August 2016

~1277

August 2017

1178

That's a start. Maybe others will contribute.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 2420919)

I think the hard part with those "computational algorithms" is that it punishes guys who were stuck in the lost decade and at the wrong airline. Did you get hired at a regional, upgrade and then get downgraded keeping you as an FO for 7 years? Well, I guess you were too lazy. The lost decade has and continues to punish people based solely on timing. Yes, it does "look bad" to have quite a few flight school failures in college and then spend 6 years in the right seat. If you are a LCA and union volunteer, and a captain, majors should be knocking on the door over 24 year olds with a few years of experience and good connections. Such is the world.

Agreed. So many people got stuck in place at no fault to their own. Yet Delta and others seem to love the 24-26 year olds who graduated into this unprecedented hiring spree, thus have been really lucky with timing and, esecially, those who just happened to pick regionals with good movement for quick upgrade. I remember the Delta hiring brief at WIA this year where they mentioned they were so 'impressed' by all the qualifications their 23 and 24 year old new hires had obtained at such a young age. :rolleyes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bellanca (Post 2421588)

This entire industry is all about luck and timing. Look at all the folks that had it made at places like TWA, Eastern, Branniff, etc only to have it pulled out from under them. Hating on the kids that happen to be at the right place and time with the qualifications to go straight to a legacy serves absolutely no purpose other than making one bitter about their own career failures.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tom11011 (Post 2421587)

That's a start. Maybe others will contribute.

Endeavor has gone from 1550 at end of 2015, to 1850 as of the end of July 2017.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five93H (Post 2421840)

Endeavor has gone from 1550 at end of 2015, to 1850 as of the end of July 2017.

psa went from 500 to 13xx since dec 2013

Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?

lXJT:

9/07
~3200

August 16
~1900

August 17 pre-ISL
~1500

August 17 ISL
~2600

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bellanca (Post 2421588)

Which carriers are hiring 23 year olds over 30 or 40 year olds? Is it just Delta? American seems to prefer older, high-time regional jet captains. From a stand-point of labor costs, it would be more beneficial for an airline to hire older pilots since they will stay at the top of the payscale for less time and do essentially the same amount of work as a younger pilot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyyGuyy (Post 2421898)

psa went from 500 to 13xx since dec 2013

Half of those peeps were probably Pinnacle!