I am back at my hotel. Was supposed to fly Alaskan, to ANC. Flight cancelled. AK has been cancelling a number of flights/week, according to AK pilots, because they don't have enough pilots. To compound the problem, Horizon has had to cancel about 1/3 of their summer flying schedule due to lack of pilots, plus, Horizon is still cancelling more flights on a weekly basis...

Alaska still has plenty of applicants at the moment. It seems as if that could be the result of poor planning and trying to run lean more than anything.

I agree with this. Initially I thought some people had some skeletons in their closets but Ive flown with captains with pretty remarkable qualifications that arent getting calls back. Masters degrees, thousands of TPIC, volunteer work, LCA, you name it the box is checked. If there is a shortage of qualified applicants I havent seen it.

I have friends from my former regional airline that were LCA and sim instructors with a few extra blips on their app (back in flight school) that still can't get called from any of the major airlines. There is no pilot shortage.

That is crazy that busted part 91 checkrides decades ago can hinder someone from moving onto a major. There must be something else on their apps which is hampering them from moving on. Perhaps they were in their position for too long and the computational algorithms deem them too complacent.... In any case, the original point stands, there most certainly is no shortage of pilots.

I think the hard part with those "computational algorithms" is that it punishes guys who were stuck in the lost decade and at the wrong airline. Did you get hired at a regional, upgrade and then get downgraded keeping you as an FO for 7 years? Well, I guess you were too lazy. The lost decade has and continues to punish people based solely on timing. Yes, it does "look bad" to have quite a few flight school failures in college and then spend 6 years in the right seat. If you are a LCA and union volunteer, and a captain, majors should be knocking on the door over 24 year olds with a few years of experience and good connections. Such is the world.

Pretty much.

True. I know lots of guys in the same situation. Also, they're seen as "career stagnant" through NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN.

I think it's come down to "what did you do with your time while waiting". Essentially those folks appear to be held to a higher standard than younger people who have remained professionally dynamic simply due to timing, ie rapid availability of career progression opportunities.

That said, there are other things you can do with your time...

People who joined or participated in the military reserves for example seem to be doing quite well, ie everybody getting called by a major, most by legacies. Includes civvy-track pilots who did not fly in the military.

Also people with multiple types seem to do better. Prop time won't do it alone, but prop time seems to reflect well on you if you have enough jet time. A recent training event is almost a must for the older crowd (last 3-5 years). They want to know that you're still trainable, and if you've flown the same plane for 15 years and are over 40 you truly might struggle. If your regional doesn't have another type, you may need to pony up for a 73 or bus type just to check that box. My understanding is that some majors may filter you out without a recent type.

Significant leadership responsibilities will get their attention too...this could include starting your own company or serving on a non-profit BOD. You'd be surprised at how many non-profits could use dynamic younger folks (ie not retired) who have some time to contribute in a leadership role. These days everybody and their brother is ladling soup at the shelter and volunteering for their kid's soccer team, so that probably doesn't make you stand out so much.

Even so, the retirements are just warming up...I expect most or all to get a call over then next 3-8 years. It's just a question of who will be senior to you. IMO it's worth making the extra effort to get out now to beat the rush, and also to avoid getting stuck in junior-man hell as the regionals scramble to deal with a staffing crisis which might become impossible to manage. Saw that play out at mesa about ten years ago...the more FO's who left, the harder the company leaned on those who stayed which of course incentivized them to leave too, and so on and so on (end result chapter 11).

Spot On. We went from the majors hiring 200 - 400 a year just a few years ago to 4,000 being hired this year. The majors still have a lot of 'extra criteria' to choose from. That is today.

The lay of the land is radically changing in the next few years. They then will be hiring most any qualified RJ pilot that does not have a bad blemish on their record.

There is probably an easier answer to this question where a true picture can be seen in very short order.

If one person from each regional airline who has kept their older seniority lists can post the total number of pilots on their roster for August of 2017 and August of 2016, that might show the trend.