The other thing to keep in mind is that aviation (like other industries) is a pyramid. There are a lot of bad jobs, a good amount of OK jobs, some good jobs, and a few great jobs. While the definition of a "bad" pilot job has improved in the last 5 years, no one gets in this industry with dreams of retiring in an E-175 making 130K. It will still be a rat race but at least those at the very bottom of the pyramid won't need to be on food stamps. Let's hope that never happens again.

 

WW1 was the war to end all wars right? Probably more accurate to say, "lets hope it doesn't happen again for a very long time"...

 

Those that are unwilling or unable to realize the pilot shortage are either living under a rock or just in serious denial.
That stack of "10,000" applications include...
- People who aren't even qualified. Some folks have their applications in from the time they start lessons.
- People who have already been hired by a major. Maybe they got their second choice or they got their first choice and just never removed their applications from the others.
- People who have had apps in but in the meantime have lost a medical.
- Some folks who have had apps in for years and are reaching an age they they may not want to start over at the bottom to finish off the last couple years of their career.
- Those applying to the majors and have apps in to at least 3-4 places.

The regionals are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Most applicants barely meet the ATP requirements with many needing to count the sim time to reach the required hours. These bonuses and increase in pay will bring some people back into the industry who left previously but it won't be enough.
The majors have also relaxed their requirements slightly. About a year or so ago they all wanted 1,000 PIC to apply. Now that requirement is gone with more and more getting hired from the right seat of the regionals.

This shortage will continue to get worse as major airline retirements peaks in a couple years.

 

I would like to see data on new hires at the regional level. I would bet it could be as high as 50% are lateral moves, meaning there aren't enough new pilots.
Just examining pure numbers, lets say that 3000 pilots are leaving regionals, upward and onward, then how many new ATPs are being issued to replace them. That would be a better measure of the future.

 

At PSA it's certainly not anywhere close to 50%. A couple of years ago it certainly was but it seems the lateral transfers have really slowed down. We get a handful of Air Whiskey guys and maybe some ExpressJet but those are the exception now, not the norm. Really right now any pilot can get hired at any airline they want, so it's not like new 121 candidates have to take the first offer they get since they can hold out for their preferred airline/base/airplane which also cuts down on the number of people making lateral moves 1-2 years in to their career.

 

Look at the guys going to the regionals. It's all 40 to 50s that came from 135 and charters around the world. So no younger guys but they've managed to get the older folks to show.

 

The shortage disappeared when the first year pay went to $60k+. Amazing how that works.

 

Pay goes up-shortage disappears .Not hard to figure out. Seems simple enough to me

 

The market at work.

 

Shortage didn't go away. Some airlines are still having a hard time filling classes even with some of the highest starting pay in the industry. The highest retirement numbers haven't even started yet.