So the pilot shortage is over?

 

I don't think it is over, just a shortage of simulators which is causing the delays. Companies have a limited number and are running them 20 to 24 hrs a day. Only so many can be trained each week and with the large classes the training is getting delayed. Another question that someone looking to go to a Regional is, after training is completed, then how long can they expect to be on reserves before holding a line. And if they are on reserve, how much flying will they actually be doing.

 

Another problem is that the very people that the majors seem to favor in their hiring are the guys that do the training at the regionals. So the regionals took big hits in their own training departments at the very time they needed to train more people than ever before. Some of the regionals are catching up, but the current attrition to the majors is causing a relatively huge training load (by historical standards) of students who are on the whole less experienced (by historical standards) to be done by instructors who are less experienced (than by historical standards).

Some regionals just seem to be trapped in lag. Others, generally with their own ample sims, like Horizon, seem to be warehousing FOs against future need. That’s great for getting hired. Getting off reserve, not so much.

 

Why do you think this? Don’t take this the wrong way, this is not a “bash XJT” response, but I just don’t see it.

They’ve got an aging fleet of E145s and are getting 25 Ejets. No one but the top seniority guys are gonna get the Ejet. Their pilot staff keeps shrinking month to month even with their constant hiring and classes. They can only staff about 90 of the 120 or so E145s they have and are canceling flights daily. They claim their upgrades are down to 3 years now, but one of their pilots told me that’s bull*hit, that’s it’s at least 5 years right now. I’m sorry, but they’re a dumpster fire right now. No offense.

I had an interview scheduled with them after my interview with Mesa, and after speaking to a couple of XJT pilots, I canceled it.

They’re in trouble. It’s a Catch-22 for XJT. They can’t get the upgrade times down until they hire a bunch of new pilots, and they can’t recruit new pilots because their upgrade times are so long.

Once again, I’m not bashing XJT. I think they’re a good regional. Great training, good pay, good work rules, great people. They’re just in a very tough position right now.

The only way I think they can turn it around is by acquiring a bunch of new aircraft to replace the 145s, and that may attract new hires to commit. Like it or not, pilots like to fly shiny new jets.

 

Just as a note, having asked those questions directly. 3 yr captains have been awarded, just not gone to training. A big hiring gap just like everyone else had 1-3 years ago before the DEC appeared. And they hired 30+in March, 55-60 April, and tracking for 55-60 for May. Current month numbers showing a pilot increase for the first time in a long while so there is a bit of light but always a gamble anywhere. Worse case, take the 22-27k bonus, it prorates to half in a year. If it turns out awful, bail then and keep half minus a couple thousand in taxes to recoup. Be through training in 3 months and fly 70-85 hrs month. That 600-750 hours in a year goes a lot further toward major competitive hours, than waiting for a class and sitting reserve not flying in the next year.

If it goes great and the hiring continues and more planes come/get back online then it's a great time to get on.

Just as context for the concept of training/wait times.

 

Second time I read about XJT 145s aging. I guess other planes don't age.....

Except for all new and fancy 175s/900s out there, aren't all the regional planes mostly old as F*?. As long as it's well maintained, I'll take it.

 

Just to let you know we are getting around 40-50 people a month now, 25% of all United hires are from us currently, transitioning out of the CRJ (ASA) completely and bringing in a whole new fleet type 175 beginning next month, I’m sure by the Fall to Winter all of the issues will iron out. A Jan 19 FO in training was awarded a 175 slot 2 months ago. Yes the CA 175 side obviously went senior.

You can get into class now and fly your balls off if you want or you can fly props for 6 months. There are roughly 150 pilots between the latest awarded CA 5 yrs and a July 17 hire (2 yr mark). That upgrade number should drop fairly easily but stranger things have happened.

 

Contrary to you, I was very skeptical about ExpressJet at first and didn't even think of applying. And after having spoken to several people there, I really wanted to apply. Things are changing. You said they are a dumpster fire, but then said they are a good regional. You said "great training, great pay, great work rules, great people". And THAT is what matters most. If you care about upgrade times, then yes that's a reason to back-off from applying, which is understandable. But if you plan on being at a regional for no more than 2 years, then it doesn't really matter in the end. Get your time, enjoy the time while you're there, and move on. You brought up good points, but an "aging" fleet, and longer than normal upgrade times(which are going down) shouldn't
be the reason to immediately dismiss a company.

 

Well I meant what I said about the company.

The dumpster fire remark relates to their fleet and shrinking pilot staff. XJT had over 1800 pilots last year and that has dwindled to less than 1400, even with heavy recruitment and hiring. Y’all can’t sustain that. And it looks like they are addressing it and getting people into classes. Like I said, they can’t get upgrade times down until they get new pilots, and they can’t get new pilots with the long upgrade times. Catch-22.

Again, I’m not bashing XJT, I seriously considered going there. I chose Mesa (despite their reputation) because I was able to choose the base I wanted and can upgrade when I’m ready and still be based there, instead of EWR, LGA or some other craphole on the east coast. (No offense to you NJ or NY people. Just not my cup of tea. ) XJT couldn’t offer me any of that.

 

FWIW - XJT has lost allot of people, yes. But UAL is pumping allot of money into them, 145s are easy to replace, and now they are out from under SKW. It’s a good place to get into at the moment.

Good luck with Mesa.