Given that DAL will not get scope relief from DALPA and several of their airports have 50-seater departure requirements. What do you think are some the aircraft options for Delta regarding the 50-seat market? Scope as it is currently allows for 135 50 seat A/C. Although this market is hated by almost all parties involved, it is not going anywhere and the planes are going to have to be replaced eventually.

The 200s average age is 15 years or greater, they are getting tired, lots of cycles on the hulls, and maintenance costs are going up. Eventually the “get another one from Kingman” system is no longer going to be an option. My FO today thought the 550 would be a logical step, I think that is short-term stop gap given that 700s are also out of production. I don’t see Delta wanting the E145 again, they didn’t like it the first time. But what other 50 options are available?

 

There are no new 50 seater options - yet.

But you can get another 10-15 years out of CRJs easily.

Nobody is losing sleep about that now.

 

Delta's plan is to just get out of the 50 seat market. Part of the whole reason for the 220 is to reduce the dependency on regionals and start retiring 200s. I am sure as they get a bigger fleet of 220s, Skywest and Endeavor will start seeing 200s retire within the next few years.

 

Delta said “no props.” Westjet will be flying Delta passengers on q400’s soon.

 

They have to maintain a 50 seat market. That’s not optional for several of the contracts with airports, cities, etc. The limit is 135 50 seat aircraft. I believe they can convert a few out those to 70 seaters however it automatically reduces the 450 total by the next January 1st.

I’m asking what is the replacement options for the 200 given they have to keep a 50 seat market.

 

They'll have to convert a 70 seater to 55 seats. Delta operates over 17,000 mainline flights in those 50 seater placeholder slots.

 

The problem with the CRJ550 is that the economics of the aircraft are unproven. Will the increased revenue from BC outweigh the increased operating costs of the 550 vs. a true 50 seat aircraft.

 

Other than LGA, which contracts forbid larger than 50 seats?

I remember rumors that the LGA restriction was going away but don't actually have anything other than rumors that originated here.

I also believe that 70+ seat aircraft are already at the limit.

 

If the 50's wear out or become non-economical then service will be cut. That will drive up prices as some folks will be willing to pay rather than drive hours to another airport. Eventually demand will probably justify 50-seat 700's (or the embraer equivalent) if there is simply no suitable replacement.

I don't recall if props count against the 50-seat limit? ATRs are still available new, and maybe Q-400's.

If you're young, and planning on making a career at a regional that operates a lot of 200's, you might feel some pain. For everyone else it should shake out OK one way or another.

 

I see DL just flying 700’s/175’s with less frequency into these small towns. But thats 10+ years away. By then growth in those towns will support it...