Recession
08-19-2019 | 06:11 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 151
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Well I'll not interject politics in this discussion like some other folks.
I hope there is no recession. There are things that make me worry like FedEx seeing reduced demand, auto and motor home sales weakening, and the stock market in constant turmoil with wild swings. These things don't exactly make me feel all warm and fuzzy.
If there was a recession would it be better to be at one of the low cost regionals, a WO or one of the larger regionals like OO or YX? I don't think we will know that answer until it's time and see what the c-suite execs decide. Don't forget while YX isn't a WO all 3 of the big legacies own a portion.
I hope there is no recession. There are things that make me worry like FedEx seeing reduced demand, auto and motor home sales weakening, and the stock market in constant turmoil with wild swings. These things don't exactly make me feel all warm and fuzzy.
If there was a recession would it be better to be at one of the low cost regionals, a WO or one of the larger regionals like OO or YX? I don't think we will know that answer until it's time and see what the c-suite execs decide. Don't forget while YX isn't a WO all 3 of the big legacies own a portion.
08-19-2019 | 07:19 PM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 1,957
Likes: 0
Well I'll not interject politics in this discussion like some other folks.
I hope there is no recession. There are things that make me worry like FedEx seeing reduced demand, auto and motor home sales weakening, and the stock market in constant turmoil with wild swings. These things don't exactly make me feel all warm and fuzzy.
If there was a recession would it be better to be at one of the low cost regionals, a WO or one of the larger regionals like OO or YX? I don't think we will know that answer until it's time and see what the c-suite execs decide. Don't forget while YX isn't a WO all 3 of the big legacies own a portion.
I hope there is no recession. There are things that make me worry like FedEx seeing reduced demand, auto and motor home sales weakening, and the stock market in constant turmoil with wild swings. These things don't exactly make me feel all warm and fuzzy.
If there was a recession would it be better to be at one of the low cost regionals, a WO or one of the larger regionals like OO or YX? I don't think we will know that answer until it's time and see what the c-suite execs decide. Don't forget while YX isn't a WO all 3 of the big legacies own a portion.
08-19-2019 | 11:30 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 310
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With murmurs starting and it being ‘about time for another one’, would it be better to fly for a place like OO or XY, one of the WOs or places like XJT or C5 that are partially owned?
I know seniority is everything in this industry...just wondering what opinions are of how bad it’ll be in regards to furloughs and which regionals would most likely have the least amount.
I know seniority is everything in this industry...just wondering what opinions are of how bad it’ll be in regards to furloughs and which regionals would most likely have the least amount.
AA WO will likely fair okay as AA will still need to hire to replace 1000+ folks retiring each year. The top ~10% of each WO seniority list is set to retire in the next 3 years in addition to any who would flow to cover attrition at AA which won’t need to furlough most likely. Aa can retire its way to the right size and hire for retirements after any downsize is complete.
OO and XY will be relatively stable as they are the largest contact regionals for the legacies. They likely will have even stagnation than currently but they should still be in business on the backside of any recession.
08-20-2019 | 10:48 AM
#14
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 527
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I would like to point out that not every recession is the same. Each one is unique and effects different parts of the economy. The last one was exceptionally bad. Will the next one be like that? Who knows...
My point being, recessions are almost impossible to predict, but they are a natural cycle of an economy and you will live through multiple of them in your life time. They don't always effect certain parts of the economy the same as others. Will airlines be effected by the next one? Probably. How much? Who knows. We've never seen this amount of mandatory retirements before.
My completely worthless opinion is that whenever the next recession comes it will be no where near as bad as 2009, and many will be pleasantly surprised how much better the airline industry does this time.
We'll see.
My point being, recessions are almost impossible to predict, but they are a natural cycle of an economy and you will live through multiple of them in your life time. They don't always effect certain parts of the economy the same as others. Will airlines be effected by the next one? Probably. How much? Who knows. We've never seen this amount of mandatory retirements before.
My completely worthless opinion is that whenever the next recession comes it will be no where near as bad as 2009, and many will be pleasantly surprised how much better the airline industry does this time.
We'll see.
08-20-2019 | 11:01 AM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 1,957
Likes: 0
I would like to point out that not every recession is the same. Each one is unique and effects different parts of the economy. The last one was exceptionally bad. Will the next one be like that? Who knows...
My point being, recessions are almost impossible to predict, but they are a natural cycle of an economy and you will live through multiple of them in your life time. They don't always effect certain parts of the economy the same as others. Will airlines be effected by the next one? Probably. How much? Who knows. We've never seen this amount of mandatory retirements before.
My completely worthless opinion is that whenever the next recession comes it will be no where near as bad as 2009, and many will be pleasantly surprised how much better the airline industry does this time.
We'll see.
My point being, recessions are almost impossible to predict, but they are a natural cycle of an economy and you will live through multiple of them in your life time. They don't always effect certain parts of the economy the same as others. Will airlines be effected by the next one? Probably. How much? Who knows. We've never seen this amount of mandatory retirements before.
My completely worthless opinion is that whenever the next recession comes it will be no where near as bad as 2009, and many will be pleasantly surprised how much better the airline industry does this time.
We'll see.
08-20-2019 | 11:06 AM
#16
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 34
Likes: 0
08-20-2019 | 01:53 PM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 896
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Don't make the same mistakes as your parents. Read and follow Dave Ramsey or whatever conservative financial advisor you want. Budget conservatively, save aggressively, avoid debt, and be responsible. That makes recessions a whole lot less bad.
Oh yeah, don't take on massive debt to finance school, no matter what the Daytona Beach Boys Club tells you.
Oh yeah, don't take on massive debt to finance school, no matter what the Daytona Beach Boys Club tells you.
08-20-2019 | 03:13 PM
#18
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,164
Likes: 803
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Even better, if your employment position is secure (good seniority, government, medical, etc) try to be prepared to take advantage of the situation... real estate and equities can be had at a deep discount, just need a slush fund ready.
08-20-2019 | 03:27 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 896
Likes: 0
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