I interviewed on 27 Aug 19, I got the call a couple of days layer for a 20 April class. I'm expecting to be available on 1 Feb so I'm on the wait list for the 10 Feb class as well.

 

Can we safely say that pay and bonuses now have bought enough people back to aviation plus enough people entering at the bottom? Or will the well run dry again soon?

 

Look at the demographics. More mandatory retirements than ever before, fewer military fixed wing pilots than ever before, declining experience levels pretty much across the board. Yet more aircraft and more flying are here and more yet still coming.

There has been a hiatus in hiring to cover all the summer flying, and because of all the parked MAX’s, but it’s about to start up again.

The well has never run dry and never really will, but we got pretty near the bottom of the barrel 2 years ago, and it’s going to get worse (or, depending on your outlook, better) for the next 3-5 years.

https://youtu.be/99lyU5N--f8

 

As long as there are pilots who are willing to live the commute-to-base lifestyle as they do, there is no shortage. Typical commuting co-worker:

Day 1 - Drives two hours from home to commuting airport, then flies half way across country to base. 6 hours later, gets hotel room or pays for crash pad for the evening.

Days 2,3,4,5 - Flies a 4-day trip for the company.

At end of 4-day trip, has to get hotel room or crash pad because there are no more 'flights home'.

Day 6 - Flies half way across country to get home, then drives 2 hours home from commuting airport (This is only if the Wx is good, and there are no other delays)

Day 7 - Gets one day off at "home".

Day 8 - Repeats above process above until the end of the month. Repeats month after month.

I hear this story nearly each time I take a trip. These same folks seem to hate their jobs and careers. Generally unhappy folks. But they continue to put up with the commuting life. Why? They are willing to sacrifice 7 to 15 years of their life away; family, QOL, so they can fly for United, Delta, or American.

There is no pilot shortage. When these 'competitive tactics' go away, then, OK, maybe we will see a shortage on the horizon.

Don't be one of these people and Lower The Bar. It's truly sad what airline pilots are willing to give up in life in this business. Pretty much explains why I fly with so many divorced pilots... and I ain't no Dr. Phil.

 

That has nothing to do with a shortage of pilots...

As long as it's an option people will do it. Same with oil workers, many of whom commute long distances for two-week shifts.

If they banned commuting, THEN there would be a pilot shortage. Not to mention the added cost of paying pilots to live in major airline hubs, 90% of which are very high COL areas.

But I agree that stupid commutes are a real buzz kill, would never set myself up for doing that long term (although poop happens sometimes).

 

This isn't typical in the least. It is common but does not define most commuters. I haven't commuted the day before or after the trip in years. And I don't even know anyone who drives two hours to get to their home airport.

 

I know people who this is common for, but I wouldn’t say this characterizes most commuters either.


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When you’re in an orientation class and one of your coworkers hasn’t flown in 7 years that speaks volumes to how desperate companies are for “Talent”.

When regionals are willing to train helicopter pilots and foot the bill. In my opinion that speaks volumes on how desperate companies are for talent.

 

In medicine there is a concept of compensated and decompensated heart failure.

Just because you’re not turning blue and coughing up bloody froth doesn’t mean you have a normal heart.

The industry is in a state of compensated recruitment failure. It would not take much to tip things bad.

 

I do agree they (regionals) are currently tapping the existing pools of last resort.

But they could still create their own funded ab initio pipeline... pay for all training and create a pipeline student=>CFI=>regional=>major. Since they're paying it does NOT have to be guaranteed flow, they could have gateways along the process. They could then adjust the throughput with bonuses at the CFI/regional phases.

The problem is that they need to lead the problem... if the legacies start parking jets, then it's too late to start such a pipeline.