College degree and 1000 PIC gold again.
03-28-2020, 02:53 PM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2017
Posts: 1,109
Originally Posted by Itsajob
Do you really think that the global economy will recover from this that fast? Shelter in place orders are going on all over the world, businesses are going to fail from loss revenue, and not just the domestic, but the global economy is going to be hit hard. How can we have several months of this and be back to where we were in a year or less? United has already said that they expect our current reductions to intensify and last several months, followed by a slower than hoped for recovery, and a smaller company as a result.
It might take a little longer for the economy to catch up to where it was, but I’d be willing to bet hiring will be back in full swing by next summer or earlier. If this drags on past this August or September then that’s a different story, but if we’re on the upswing by June I think there’s a very good chance at a quick recovery.
Personally, I can’t see these lockdowns going past September. I’m all for the lockdowns now. But if it goes past September then most likely a vast majority of the population will get the virus if it has that amount of time to spread. That would basically make these lockdowns absolutely pointless. What’s the point in shutting everything down if everyone is going to get it anyway? That’s what the lockdowns are supposed to prevent right?
03-28-2020, 03:00 PM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Position: CRJ
Posts: 110
Originally Posted by Thedude86
I believe it will. Maybe not quite back to the levels it was a few months ago, but close. The initial hit is much worse than 2008, but the difference is that the economy was very strong before Coronavirus. 2008 happened because the economy legitimately sucked. The recovery will be much quicker than 2008. I’ve seen economists argue both sides so who knows. It will still be a quicker recovery either way.
It might take a little longer for the economy to catch up to where it was, but I’d be willing to bet hiring will be back in full swing by next summer or earlier. If this drags on past this August or September then that’s a different story, but if we’re on the upswing by June I think there’s a very good chance at a quick recovery.
Personally, I can’t see these lockdowns going past September. I’m all for the lockdowns now. But if it goes past September then most likely a vast majority of the population will get the virus if it has that amount of time to spread. That would basically make these lockdowns absolutely pointless. What’s the point in shutting everything down if everyone is going to get it anyway? That’s what the lockdowns are supposed to prevent right?
It might take a little longer for the economy to catch up to where it was, but I’d be willing to bet hiring will be back in full swing by next summer or earlier. If this drags on past this August or September then that’s a different story, but if we’re on the upswing by June I think there’s a very good chance at a quick recovery.
Personally, I can’t see these lockdowns going past September. I’m all for the lockdowns now. But if it goes past September then most likely a vast majority of the population will get the virus if it has that amount of time to spread. That would basically make these lockdowns absolutely pointless. What’s the point in shutting everything down if everyone is going to get it anyway? That’s what the lockdowns are supposed to prevent right?
03-28-2020, 03:06 PM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2017
Posts: 1,109
Originally Posted by PaloAlto
The lockdowns are meant to “flatten the curve”. Reduce infection rates to a level that the healthcare system can handle over a longer period of time.
Not to mention it sounds like we could be having a breakthrough in medicine and/or a vaccine any day now.
03-28-2020, 03:19 PM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 621
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Or you can hire a manager for $200K and a helper for $100K, and net $200k for doing almost nothing.
Or bank $200K for ten years, that's $2M, and then live off the interest/capital gains (5% = $100K).
Or bank $200K for ten years, that's $2M, and then live off the interest/capital gains (5% = $100K).
03-28-2020, 03:25 PM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Position: CRJ
Posts: 110
Originally Posted by Thedude86
I know that. That’s why I said I’m for them. If it does flatten the curve I don’t see how we will still be on lockdown in September. If it works we should be on the upswing by then. If we’re still on lockdown in September, I’m saying the curve will most likely not be flattened if it takes that long by how fast it’s spreading right now.
Not to mention it sounds like we could be having a breakthrough in medicine and/or a vaccine any day now.
Not to mention it sounds like we could be having a breakthrough in medicine and/or a vaccine any day now.
03-28-2020, 03:26 PM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,599
Originally Posted by Turbosina
You're doing a 12% cap rate on a property? That's incredible. Are you including price appreciation in that?
We're at 5.5% on two properties in PHX with no financing. Searched for 6 months across multiple markets and never saw anything close to 8%, let alone 12%. Now, if I looked at the total return rate including price appreciation and rental income for my third property in CA, it's averaged 15% every year for the past 9 years. But that's only due to the ludicrous price appreciation (more than 100%) over the last 9 years. If I only looked at cash flow, it's more like a 3% ROI.
Which, of course, is still better than the 30% destruction that's happened in the markets these past weeks.
Lesson learned. I should have just blown it all on women, gambling, and alcohol. I mean, seriously. I would be poorer but happier ;-)
We're at 5.5% on two properties in PHX with no financing. Searched for 6 months across multiple markets and never saw anything close to 8%, let alone 12%. Now, if I looked at the total return rate including price appreciation and rental income for my third property in CA, it's averaged 15% every year for the past 9 years. But that's only due to the ludicrous price appreciation (more than 100%) over the last 9 years. If I only looked at cash flow, it's more like a 3% ROI.
Which, of course, is still better than the 30% destruction that's happened in the markets these past weeks.
Lesson learned. I should have just blown it all on women, gambling, and alcohol. I mean, seriously. I would be poorer but happier ;-)
My point is that this opportunity will come around again. Soon if I were a betting man. Despite some stimulus I think the economy on the other side of this isn’t going to be very healthy and you’ll see a large uptick in foreclosures and distressed properties. I don’t think the foreclosures will be as severe as after the bubble burst and there are speculative corporations going around right now offering people cold hard cash for their properties at a discount. So it won’t be the same kind of feeding frenzy as it was last time. But for those sitting on cash rubbing their hands together this may be the last big opportunity before I get too old to want to bother with it anymore...
03-28-2020, 03:43 PM
#37
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 1,358
Originally Posted by Thedude86
I believe it will. Maybe not quite back to the levels it was a few months ago, but close. The initial hit is much worse than 2008, but the difference is that the economy was very strong before Coronavirus. 2008 happened because the economy legitimately sucked. The recovery will be much quicker than 2008. I’ve seen economists argue both sides so who knows. It will still be a quicker recovery either way.
It might take a little longer for the economy to catch up to where it was, but I’d be willing to bet hiring will be back in full swing by next summer or earlier. If this drags on past this August or September then that’s a different story, but if we’re on the upswing by June I think there’s a very good chance at a quick recovery.
Personally, I can’t see these lockdowns going past September. I’m all for the lockdowns now. But if it goes past September then most likely a vast majority of the population will get the virus if it has that amount of time to spread. That would basically make these lockdowns absolutely pointless. What’s the point in shutting everything down if everyone is going to get it anyway? That’s what the lockdowns are supposed to prevent right?
It might take a little longer for the economy to catch up to where it was, but I’d be willing to bet hiring will be back in full swing by next summer or earlier. If this drags on past this August or September then that’s a different story, but if we’re on the upswing by June I think there’s a very good chance at a quick recovery.
Personally, I can’t see these lockdowns going past September. I’m all for the lockdowns now. But if it goes past September then most likely a vast majority of the population will get the virus if it has that amount of time to spread. That would basically make these lockdowns absolutely pointless. What’s the point in shutting everything down if everyone is going to get it anyway? That’s what the lockdowns are supposed to prevent right?
03-28-2020, 03:46 PM
#38
New Hire
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 7
Just waiting for a paid leave offer to come down the pipe, then I'll enroll and collect the BAH from my GI Bill as well as hopefully finish the degree.
Or if no paid leave offer happens, I might do a Voluntary leave and do the same.
Luckily, I've had this nagging feeling in the back of my head for the past year that things were going too well so I started stockpiling cash. I hope ya'll have some substantial savings as well.
Or if no paid leave offer happens, I might do a Voluntary leave and do the same.
Luckily, I've had this nagging feeling in the back of my head for the past year that things were going too well so I started stockpiling cash. I hope ya'll have some substantial savings as well.
03-28-2020, 03:48 PM
#39
New Hire
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 7
Originally Posted by Itsajob
The economy was strong going into this, but most likely won’t be coming out. Businesses are already shutting down and lots of people are either already out of work, or soon will be. I’m sure hoping that you’re right and I’m not. Due to the flattened curve, our time in the curve will be longer and recovery slower.
03-28-2020, 03:50 PM
#40
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,210
Originally Posted by 3rd Time Charm
his nagging feeling in the back of my head for the past year that things were going too well so I started stockpiling cash. I hope ya'll have some substantial savings as well.
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