Regionals and possible pay cuts
04-12-2020 | 02:19 PM
#21
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,137
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
With unemployment rates expected to hit 30% that is a good starting point to see where air travel will stabilize. I think best case scenario the majority of airlines will be at best 30% smaller this time next year. When hiring does return, just like it always does, it will take years just to hire and train all the furloughed pilots. This is going to be a long recovery.
Domestic vs. International: domestic is coming back sooner.
Business vs. Leisure: Domestic flying which is primarily leisure oriented may not come back as quickly. Despite all of the hype about everybody permanently retreating into a virtual zoom world, that's not how business is really done, especially for the Gen X and boomers who actually run businesses and organizations today (millenials might change it all up when/if they're in charge). Leisure travel will follow the economy, but business travel won't be able to wait. Obviously going to be at least some economic churn as the dust settles, IMO that will actually drive some additional business travel as people scramble to re-organize and make new relationships. That's assuming we don't retreat into a bad recession.
Depending on the airline and their business model, I think you'll see anywhere from 0-40% furloughs, some regionals may even grow as they pick over the corpses of their masters.
I think pretty much all majors will furlough, probably 10% at a minimum.
04-12-2020 | 02:36 PM
#22
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Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 83
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Not that simple. Looking at the US only it depends on what kind of flying you do, and how much....
Domestic vs. International: domestic is coming back sooner.
Business vs. Leisure: Domestic flying which is primarily leisure oriented may not come back as quickly. Despite all of the hype about everybody permanently retreating into a virtual zoom world, that's not how business is really done, especially for the Gen X and boomers who actually run businesses and organizations today (millenials might change it all up when/if they're in charge). Leisure travel will follow the economy, but business travel won't be able to wait. Obviously going to be at least some economic churn as the dust settles, IMO that will actually drive some additional business travel as people scramble to re-organize and make new relationships. That's assuming we don't retreat into a bad recession.
Depending on the airline and their business model, I think you'll see anywhere from 0-40% furloughs, some regionals may even grow as they pick over the corpses of their masters.
Domestic vs. International: domestic is coming back sooner.
Business vs. Leisure: Domestic flying which is primarily leisure oriented may not come back as quickly. Despite all of the hype about everybody permanently retreating into a virtual zoom world, that's not how business is really done, especially for the Gen X and boomers who actually run businesses and organizations today (millenials might change it all up when/if they're in charge). Leisure travel will follow the economy, but business travel won't be able to wait. Obviously going to be at least some economic churn as the dust settles, IMO that will actually drive some additional business travel as people scramble to re-organize and make new relationships. That's assuming we don't retreat into a bad recession.
Depending on the airline and their business model, I think you'll see anywhere from 0-40% furloughs, some regionals may even grow as they pick over the corpses of their masters.
04-12-2020 | 03:51 PM
#23
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,137
Likes: 797
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
I work for a financial company in the North East with around 800 employees and am very close to the CEO through aviation. He is already saying that there won't be any travel for us until at least the end of 2020...Even if we re-open our offices in May or June, he will not take any chances getting all of us back in the office at once - we will be working Team A and Team B concept until at least 1.5-2 months of solid data indicating major and consistent declines in total cases...The technology use in the past few weeks has been crazy, we have never closed a major multi-million dollar loan virtually before until last week. Technology works. Now this guy running the show is in his mid-60s, not a millennial. Just saying.
There will be some permanent shift to virtual work, but it's not going to be anything catastrophic. My wife has a project that just blew up because of a zoom conference, emails, and apparent lack of noverbal cues. It's going to have to be adjudicated between the secretary of transportation and the secretary of defense... this is the biggest snafu in her organization's history, she's convinced it never would have happened if she could have sat down at the table with these people. Seams are starting to open up in other areas too. Her employer is treating this as limp-home mode, not the "new normal".
04-12-2020 | 03:57 PM
#24
SrFOorJrCAisthe?
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 1,648
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I can't tell you the number of people I know who are mad as hell that they had their vacations canceled. They are absolutely bursting at the seams to reschedule and take these trips. With that much pent up demand, it makes little sense as to why there won't be a massive rebound come sometime in the 2nd half of this year, possibly as early as the summer.
Lots and lots of people I know, and who are friends of friends feel this way.
Lots and lots of people I know, and who are friends of friends feel this way.
04-12-2020 | 04:06 PM
#25
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Joined: Oct 2019
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What happens is that pilots at a new startup regional or a regional that's lost most of its flying accept a very low wage in exchange for the promise of getting lots of new flying which leads to rapid growth, upgrades, and that magic 1000 121 PIC time...and then in theory a move up to the majors. Pilots at other regionals must then decide to either accept concessionary contracts which allow their managements to bid very low for new flying contracts due to not having to pay their crews more than peanuts, or watch their contracts expire and lose their jobs. They call it the whipsaw.
Whether and how much wages at the regionals might go up or down depends on how many pilots are willing to effectively volunteer their time in the hopes of quickly getting a job at mainline for the big bucks. Wages could certainly fluctuate significantly, depending on how quickly the economy and demand recovers, at both the regional and mainline level.
Whether and how much wages at the regionals might go up or down depends on how many pilots are willing to effectively volunteer their time in the hopes of quickly getting a job at mainline for the big bucks. Wages could certainly fluctuate significantly, depending on how quickly the economy and demand recovers, at both the regional and mainline level.
04-12-2020 | 04:12 PM
#26
Banned
Joined: Jul 2017
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At my flightschool they freezed all of the 6th day pay (which was pretty high by the way). Guess what! A lot of instructors asked to work 6th days for free just to get the hours. I bet that when this craziness is over, they won't bring this 6th day pay back. I am afraid the same is going to happen with regionals, 135, cargo ect...
04-12-2020 | 05:09 PM
#28
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Joined: Jun 2017
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This and ExcargoDog's point. The relief gets everyone to October. Fall rolls in and people will want to get out and live life. Then what's next? Thanksgiving and the rest of the Holiday season. People will fly and demand will come back. Conventions, concerts and meetings have been pushed to next year so after the Holidays, whammy back into Spring and we'll be back to humming along.
04-12-2020 | 08:42 PM
#29
At your mom's house
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,709
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From: cpt 737
At the regionals (whipsaw). We've seen three regionals shut down, might be a couple more before this is done. In a couple years I expect to see some new regionals start up... non-union, $25/hour to start.
The major pilots aren't budging, they'll burn it down first IMO.
The major pilots aren't budging, they'll burn it down first IMO.
04-12-2020 | 09:30 PM
#30
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Isn’t unemployment skyrocketing because people are being furloughed from their jobs due to the whole country being shutdown? So the second the country is back open, they go back to work. This whole 20-30% unemployment being portrayed by the media will go back to pre C-19 numbers, plus 3-5% for the few businesses that don’t survive. Domestic will be back rapidly, and international will take longer due to individual countries opening up on different timeframes.
