New regional mins?
04-28-2020 | 06:12 PM
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2016
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I will feel extremely bad for those that started in the last few years, got those 100k loans thinking it will be worth it. For them, I hope the downturn isn’t as bad as it is projected. I couldn’t imagine paying for my type rating to get a job making 18k while Sallie Mae is asking where that 800 a month is
04-28-2020 | 07:40 PM
#62
On Reserve
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 19
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Retirements should help lessen the shock, but if every major dumps 2000-3000 in furloughs, you'll be competing against them for jobs until they can get recalled. Even if traffic returns to 2019 levels by 2022, it may take that long for anyone to start hiring. Age 65 retirements peak by 2025, but what the industry looks like by then is anyone's guess. Half the flying? Three regionals? Two majors?
In the meantime, with the numbers being graduated into the end of the pipeline, I don't think the stated minimums will change appreciably... What will change, however, is the "if you can fog a mirror and have the right paperwork, we'll put you in class and let training wring you out" method of hiring that has been the MO for the last few years at the regionals. You're going to have to bring it, and be capable of being a lot more than a lump sitting in the right seat for a few hundred hours until you grow into it. That makes the training expense to get to ATP mins much more of a gamble, especially when the promise of a very quick progression to a major and a $200K second-year paycheck just evaporated.
In the meantime, with the numbers being graduated into the end of the pipeline, I don't think the stated minimums will change appreciably... What will change, however, is the "if you can fog a mirror and have the right paperwork, we'll put you in class and let training wring you out" method of hiring that has been the MO for the last few years at the regionals. You're going to have to bring it, and be capable of being a lot more than a lump sitting in the right seat for a few hundred hours until you grow into it. That makes the training expense to get to ATP mins much more of a gamble, especially when the promise of a very quick progression to a major and a $200K second-year paycheck just evaporated.
04-28-2020 | 08:09 PM
#63
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 2,635
Likes: 582
From: Guppy Gear Slinger
I am one of the guys that started this 2 years ago and borrowed about 60k to do it. I am sitting at my R-ATP minimums and any class dates I had are suspended indefinitely.
I have a good career in the fire dept and can afford to pay on my student loans (fixed interest- low rate, and maybe if one of these Democrats get in they will just forgive it anyways).
I have always looked at this potential career switch as an investment. My return on the investment is significantly delayed, however I still think it will pay off eventually.
These last few weeks have helped me to make a decision not to leave my current career completely......until I am way up on a seniority list or find something in the 135 field that I can merge with my current schedule.
If minimums change due to a large amount of 121 pilots on the street then I will deal with it then. I think no one knows what will happen in October. Everything could bounce back by then with the country opening up this week or all the majors could lay off 30% and delay everything for 5 years. My best guess is somewhere in between.
Its a shot in the dark to predict it now. Thankfully all of my certificates do not have expiration dates and I can afford to rent a plane to keep IFR current every 6 months until the hiring comes back. If I have to pay for a CTP course then so be it- 5k isn't too bad. I won't be paying for a 30k type rating though. As far as training bond I think that will be on a case by case basis if I will sign- I understand the reasoning for it, but I can afford to sit back and wait while working my current career until hiring is favorable to the candidates again or until the right 135 job opens up.
I have a good career in the fire dept and can afford to pay on my student loans (fixed interest- low rate, and maybe if one of these Democrats get in they will just forgive it anyways).
I have always looked at this potential career switch as an investment. My return on the investment is significantly delayed, however I still think it will pay off eventually.
These last few weeks have helped me to make a decision not to leave my current career completely......until I am way up on a seniority list or find something in the 135 field that I can merge with my current schedule.
If minimums change due to a large amount of 121 pilots on the street then I will deal with it then. I think no one knows what will happen in October. Everything could bounce back by then with the country opening up this week or all the majors could lay off 30% and delay everything for 5 years. My best guess is somewhere in between.
Its a shot in the dark to predict it now. Thankfully all of my certificates do not have expiration dates and I can afford to rent a plane to keep IFR current every 6 months until the hiring comes back. If I have to pay for a CTP course then so be it- 5k isn't too bad. I won't be paying for a 30k type rating though. As far as training bond I think that will be on a case by case basis if I will sign- I understand the reasoning for it, but I can afford to sit back and wait while working my current career until hiring is favorable to the candidates again or until the right 135 job opens up.
When I graduated college in '94 I was beyond broke and couldn't afford proper flight training, plus the regionals wanted 3000 TT and a Shuttle landing to sit right seat in a Metro.
Then when I finally got all my ratings including my ATP, I got an interview at a regional. That was scheduled for 9/15/01. Needless to say the interview was cancelled.
Focused on my non-aviation career, got comfortable, finally got tired of cubicle life and decided to reapply...
... Just as 2008 happened.
By the time the regionals were hiring again it was 2013. I finally got on the bandwagon. Twenty years after I'd originally hoped to start.
I highly doubt your wait will be that long, though. And you've got a solid plan in placetplace, which is great. Good luck to you, and to all of us. We sure could use some right about now...
04-28-2020 | 08:11 PM
#64
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Joined: Dec 2017
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Flying struck work could get a pilot on a Scab list, but PFT is something that also undermines the salaries and negotiating position of other pilots. I’m green and don’t have an educated opinion either way yet, but aren’t there similarities between a pilot who is willing to PFT and one who flies struck work?
04-28-2020 | 08:28 PM
#65
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,130
Likes: 797
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Flying struck work could get a pilot on a Scab list, but PFT is something that also undermines the salaries and negotiating position of other pilots. I’m green and don’t have an educated opinion either way yet, but aren’t there similarities between a pilot who is willing to PFT and one who flies struck work?
"Scab" has a very specific meaning.
PFT is a function of the employer, and also a union which allows the company to impose it new-hires.
That said, most airlines did away with PFT about 20-ish years ago. One airline notably retained the model: Gulfstream. Worse they actually CHARGED low-time pilots to seat in the right seat to build turbine time. Some folks in the industry hold a grudge against those pilots. I'd say hazard a guess that you wouldn't want to cross that particular line (probably won't even be an option). Any sense you may get of lingering angst towards PFT pilots probably comes from the gulfstream history.
04-28-2020 | 08:31 PM
#66
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 285
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I'm sorry. It's like the worst possible time to just be at the level where you're employable at a 121 carrier.
When I graduated college in '94 I was beyond broke and couldn't afford proper flight training, plus the regionals wanted 3000 TT and a Shuttle landing to sit right seat in a Metro.
Then when I finally got all my ratings including my ATP, I got an interview at a regional. That was scheduled for 9/15/01. Needless to say the interview was cancelled.
Focused on my non-aviation career, got comfortable, finally got tired of cubicle life and decided to reapply...
... Just as 2008 happened.
By the time the regionals were hiring again it was 2013. I finally got on the bandwagon. Twenty years after I'd originally hoped to start.
I highly doubt your wait will be that long, though. And you've got a solid plan in placetplace, which is great. Good luck to you, and to all of us. We sure could use some right about now...
When I graduated college in '94 I was beyond broke and couldn't afford proper flight training, plus the regionals wanted 3000 TT and a Shuttle landing to sit right seat in a Metro.
Then when I finally got all my ratings including my ATP, I got an interview at a regional. That was scheduled for 9/15/01. Needless to say the interview was cancelled.
Focused on my non-aviation career, got comfortable, finally got tired of cubicle life and decided to reapply...
... Just as 2008 happened.
By the time the regionals were hiring again it was 2013. I finally got on the bandwagon. Twenty years after I'd originally hoped to start.
I highly doubt your wait will be that long, though. And you've got a solid plan in placetplace, which is great. Good luck to you, and to all of us. We sure could use some right about now...
I know plenty of guys that borrowed 80k and are at the same spot either as a brand new FO about to be furloughed or they are still grinding away as a CFI with almost zero flying which means zero billable hours which means zero pay. They don't have a backup plan so the next year or two (or five) is going be rough to say least.
Things will turn around faster than 08 and 9/11 - I see this as a strong sucker punch to the economy and not a drawn out chronic issue.
04-28-2020 | 08:50 PM
#67
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 93
Likes: 0
No.
"Scab" has a very specific meaning.
PFT is a function of the employer, and also a union which allows the company to impose it new-hires.
That said, most airlines did away with PFT about 20-ish years ago. One airline notably retained the model: Gulfstream. Worse they actually CHARGED low-time pilots to seat in the right seat to build turbine time. Some folks in the industry hold a grudge against those pilots. I'd say hazard a guess that you wouldn't want to cross that particular line (probably won't even be an option). Any sense you may get of lingering angst towards PFT pilots probably comes from the gulfstream history.
"Scab" has a very specific meaning.
PFT is a function of the employer, and also a union which allows the company to impose it new-hires.
That said, most airlines did away with PFT about 20-ish years ago. One airline notably retained the model: Gulfstream. Worse they actually CHARGED low-time pilots to seat in the right seat to build turbine time. Some folks in the industry hold a grudge against those pilots. I'd say hazard a guess that you wouldn't want to cross that particular line (probably won't even be an option). Any sense you may get of lingering angst towards PFT pilots probably comes from the gulfstream history.
04-28-2020 | 09:16 PM
#68
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 59
Likes: 0
Copy thanks. Haven’t been in long enough to have anything lingering like angst. If I understand correctly, you’re saying that the difference has more to do with the scab going against the union/unified group, regardless of the similarity in the economic suppression of pilot salaries for both participating in PFT and flying struck work?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strikebreaker
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_to_fly
04-28-2020 | 09:19 PM
#69
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 93
Likes: 0
A scab is a strikebreaker. PFT is when someone who pays their own training to get a job. Both degrade the profession, but are not the same.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strikebreaker
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_to_fly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strikebreaker
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_to_fly
filler
04-28-2020 | 09:24 PM
#70
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 2,635
Likes: 582
From: Guppy Gear Slinger
A scab is a strikebreaker. PFT is when someone who pays their own training to get a job. Both degrade the profession, but are not the same.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strikebreaker
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_to_fly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strikebreaker
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_to_fly
I don't actually have a point
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