Blood bath for all pax carriers, especially if a second wave develops and takes out more people than the first wave. Piedmont, CommutAir, Air Whisky, and Republic go under. 15,000 mainline pilots get furloughed by June 2021.

I think a little common sense will go a very long way towards mitigating additional waves, handshakes, hugs, kisses, and doorknob licking are all things of the past for now. You can do a lot of opening up while still keeping a little social D.

Might be a few regional issues, if people go overboard with back to normal too fast (just like the mask fanatics who went overboard in the other direction). That said, there's simply no way you're getting the covid at the beach in broad daylight with an 8kt. SW breeze blowing... a heavy crowd at the beach is problematic because it appears defiant.

Who knows business travel could actually go up if not stay the same. While yes a lot of companies may hold off on meetings for a bit. There are a percentage of companies who had their own flight department, which is usually one of the first things to go in an economic downturn.

It isn’t just that. For one thing, you’ve just taken out many of the most truly coronavirus at risk people. There are 40,000 elderly nursing home residents with one or more serious medical infections who simply aren’t there any more to be infected. Plus, the antibody testing infers that millions have already been infected. Cuomo says 15% or better in the NY Metropolitan area. That’s two million plus right there. While anything is possible it would be nearly unique if those people didn’t have at least SOME immunity. These people act like a buffer, slowing down the spread.

And the general trend for novel human pathogens that have jumped to humans is for their pathogenicity to temper with time. Not always (Yellow Fever didn’t) but TB, cholera, leprosy, and others certainly did. The pathogen that spreads most effectively is the one that leaves its host alive the longest and indeed, if it kills the host at all that terminates its replication. Best of all - for the bug - is to be highly effective, rarely lethal, but then go dormant in the host for a half century or so (chickenpox) so you can break out after a new generation of non-immune humans are around.

Yep... I'm not an expert, I was really just making a point / playing devil's advocate a bit. I just fly the damn things, I don't sell seats ;-)

We all have our opinions, but eventually the facts will come out. The early news appears to favor the LCC/ULCC model though:

https://i.ibb.co/nkkg5wF/E2214-A22-5...DA7-C93-EF.jpg

It favors them if everything is the same as it was before all this. But it doesn’t give them any edge when so few flights are operating that you are most likely going to have to wait hours upon hours for your second leg anyway. I’m sure there are situations where tight connections would prevent a legal booking under these rules, but I would wager they are few and far between.

What second leg?

Parker is a junkyard dog around the bankruptcy courts. If there is an airline CEO out there that knows alternative financing/brink of existence airline operations, its him.

Who's goal is that? 9/11 drawdown was 75% three months later, 88% at 6-months. Great recession barely ever went below 90% from the twelve months leading into it. Unless CIVID19 spikes out of control again (not impossible, but with the whole world focused on it unlikely) I have a hard time seeing demand at only 50% seven months from now. Many people need to fly in order to pay their bills. People are still getting married, dying, getting sick, and many family members will chance it to be with their loved ones. Current demand levels are reflective of total economic shutdown, not the ongoing requirement of necessary travel...