Originally Posted by rickair7777

Force Majeure is not just a "thing" anyone can throw down on the table at any time.

Have you read AA's contract with OO? Or the others? Force Majeure only applies if you're stupid enough to allow it in your contract. Those managers are not nearly as dumb as regional unions, their contracts do not resemble the swiss cheese typical of pilot contracts in any way shape or form. Plus the regional managers learned a few lessons over the last couple decades when UAL decided to try and exploit weak language.

I'll 100% guarantee you that it's not that easy. And COVID is not even a clear-cut Force Majeure, so even if they thought they might make it stick, it WILL get litigated and they might very well lose. Just a SWAG but I'd say only about 30%-40% chance of Force Majeure succeeding in litigation. The virus may have been an act of God but it didn't ground airplanes.

A clear Force Majeure would be something which physically prevents airplanes from flying (tsunami wipes out hub, Fed grounds all traffic ala 9/11). Bad economic circumstances are less likely to qualify, regardless of cause because that's second, third, fourth order effect, etc. At some point everything bad can be traced back to a butterfly flapping it's wings in the amazon (or some dude in asia eating raw pangolin butts).

If they need to shut something down, safest bet would be WO's because they can't sue mainline. Sometimes "WO" means PWNED, and this might be one of those times.

Originally Posted by ZeroTT

Fixed costs
management
chief pilots
training department


chaos = downsizing two airlines by 1/3 with layoffs to pilots, mechanics, fa’s, dispatch, etc and subsequent rehire issues

if they just axe one airline it’s quick, simple and done. The other two can grow organically to replace the dearly departed as needed

Originally Posted by Pony Express

Again, unless theyre going to rid themselves of 50 seat flying out of PHL and CLT they will still need PHL and CLT chief pilots and a training department to keep their pilots current. Management postions like presidents/VPs of flight ops are not going to be trimmed- management positions are the last to go, like it or not.

Dispatchers and mechanics are still needed too, as long as we are still flying airplanes. Axing piedmont flight ops makes 0 sense if youre going to re hire pilots to fly the same planes out of the same bases under a slightly different banner, and still have a PHL CP and CLT CP, running the same Sims im the training department for the same capacity.

Let's just be real and say that AA is going to do whatever they want, and all WO employees are along for the ride. It's comforting to think that AA will favor one over the other, especially if you're working for the one that wins out, but its going to come down to dollars and cents.

Originally Posted by Cujo665

wow, I haven’t seen so much wrong in a long time.

First, merging PSA and Envoy is easier and cheaper.
second, seniority list mergers are not straight Date of Hire anymore and haven’t been for years.
Third, there is some savings in the areas you mentioned, but not as much as you seem to think. You still have to recruit, train and manage the same number of pilots. The real savings are more on the manager and up level, not on the worker bee. Reduced facility expenses is there too.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

it all depends.

United and the UAL MEC have given warning that come one October their displacements and downsizing might involve as many as 5000 pilots. If American takes a hit like that - assuming it survives at all - it may wind up giving up one - or all - of its regional fleet, or going into bankruptcy to force scope relief, although with 4-5 thousand mainline furloughs the union would fight them tooth and nail.

But we are t4uly in uncharted territory here. We’ve never seen this much damage to the economy - and largely self inflicted. We truly scared millions and millions of customers with that 20 million American dead cr@p. Fifteen percent of people were always nervous flyers. Five percent couldn’t bring themselves to fly AT ALL.

the 60-100 thousand deaths aren’t the problem, 8000 Americans die every day, but we’ve scared the bejeezus out of 70% of 334 million people and damaged the economic status of 98% of them. That’s a lot of lost business.

Originally Posted by Av8rPHX

I had this conversation tonight...60k deaths from the Rona so far. We must do everything to prevent another death. 30 MILLION people unemployed and no one bats an eye and just says “it’s ok they make more on unemployment anyway”. The rationale makes no sense


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Originally Posted by threeighteen

37k. CDC cut their numbers in half last week. But you won't see that on CNN.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

Originally Posted by Pony Express

Again, unless theyre going to rid themselves of 50 seat flying out of PHL and CLT they will still need PHL and CLT chief pilots and a training department to keep their pilots current. Management postions like presidents/VPs of flight ops are not going to be trimmed- management positions are the last to go, like it or not.

Dispatchers and mechanics are still needed too, as long as we are still flying airplanes.