That’s not how it works, and it’s not that easy. If what you say is how it works, I wouldn't have lost 2 years of seniority to one pilot group and 1 year to another. Speaking from personal experience with the Pinnacle/Mesaba/Colgan merger. All 3 were ALPA. We also thought it would save money by combining 3 companies into one, until the company file for Bankruptcy not long after.

 

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

Fixed costs
management
chief pilots
training department


chaos = downsizing two airlines by 1/3 with layoffs to pilots, mechanics, fa’s, dispatch, etc and subsequent rehire issues

if they just axe one airline it’s quick, simple and done. The other two can grow organically to replace the dearly departed as needed

 

You can say that again.

 

Who has the most senior expensive pilot group? That’s who I would dissolve. Would suck to be them but save the most money short term. Then when things pick back up they can come back at the bottom of another list and wait another 10 years for the flow. It’s a win win for AA, low labor now and when hiring starts they will have a line of people waiting to go to the remaining 2 W/O to get back in the flow line.

 

It’s really sad how people want a whole regional gone to save a bunch of new guys on the bottom of a seniority list. How much of PSA’s pilot group is on reserve?

 

Force Majeure is not just a "thing" anyone can throw down on the table at any time.

Have you read AA's contract with OO? Or the others? Force Majeure only applies if you're stupid enough to allow it in your contract. Those managers are not nearly as dumb as regional unions, their contracts do not resemble the swiss cheese typical of pilot contracts in any way shape or form. Plus the regional managers learned a few lessons over the last couple decades when UAL decided to try and exploit weak language.

I'll 100% guarantee you that it's not that easy. And COVID is not even a clear-cut Force Majeure, so even if they thought they might make it stick, it WILL get litigated and they might very well lose. Just a SWAG but I'd say only about 30%-40% chance of Force Majeure succeeding in litigation. The virus may have been an act of God but it didn't ground airplanes.

A clear Force Majeure would be something which physically prevents airplanes from flying (tsunami wipes out hub, Fed grounds all traffic ala 9/11). Bad economic circumstances are less likely to qualify, regardless of cause because that's second, third, fourth order effect, etc. At some point everything bad can be traced back to a butterfly flapping it's wings in the amazon (or some dude in asia eating raw pangolin butts).

If they need to shut something down, safest bet would be WO's because they can't sue mainline. Sometimes "WO" means PWNED, and this might be one of those times.

 

If they're in such dire straits that they are going to close a WO, they would be in BK. And if they're in BK, they can get out of those burdensome contracts with contract carriers. Liquidate a company that flies jets that you own, or cut contracts and say peace, talk to you later. Hmmmmm, are you guys actually acting like there is even a decision to be made here?


"Sometimes WO equals PWNED" lol dude.... come on. Which regionals have furloughed? Which have shut down? Which have lost flying to other carriers? I can tell you that none of them were AA WOs. Some of these cats are getting to mainline in five years or less, their companies are stable. Might not be the best QOL or pay out there, but you can't argue it is a bad deal for anyone.

 

If it's BK, then all bets are off. But if they can avoid that (Parker will try very hard to avoid BK because HIS job would be in serious jeopardy), then WO's might get consolidated. They have three for whipsaw. Right now they don't need any whipsaw, they just need low overhead. They can start up another WO later on for the whipsaw value.

The WO flow is a good deal for regional pilots (a great deal for some who would never get looked at by a legacy). But that doesn't mean WO's are on some kind of special pedestal, or are part of the family when push comes to shove.

 

Nobody wants this to happen. I’m trying to think like American.