Possible signs of improving job market?
12-07-2020, 07:06 AM
#31
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,289
Originally Posted by JungleJetBoss
Does anyone honestly believe that after 70+ years of research and development that we have a 40% effective flu shot, but in 10 months a 95% effective Rona shot?
1) "The flu" is actually a family of similar viruses, not one single bug.
2) The "flu shot" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines, which are selected twice each year based on which (of many available) strains of flu they guesstimate are *most* likely to be *most* prevalent in the coming season. It is never intended, nor would it ever be able, to prevent all flu. It's intended to reduce the impact on society, and improve your individual odds. The bonus is that if you get the shot annually, it improves your odds against strains which are not included in the current shot, because you have some immunity left for strains from years past, which may still circle around.
3) The flu mutates rapidly in a fast cycle which occurs in a unique "reservoir animal" ecosystem of pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in Asia. By bouncing back and forth between species (with vast numbers of animal hosts), it's afforded a tremendous opportunity to mutate. After which it it jumps to people and makes it's way around the world.
4) Many flu strains have been circulating for years, and they have vaccines on the shelf for those. When a new robust mutation pops up, they have to make a NEW vaccine within months to get it into the next cycle's flu shot cocktail. They actually have that down to a science.
Covid has not shown any indication of getting into domestic livestock in a manner such that it can readily jump back and forth between livestock and humans. Once covid is beaten back into a dark corner it will have vastly reduced mutation opportunities.
A covid vaccine is a lot more straight-forward.
Last edited by rickair7777; 12-07-2020 at 01:27 PM.
12-07-2020, 08:17 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 833
Originally Posted by rickair7777
You just demonstrated some extreme ignorance. Apples to pomegranites comparison, the only less-informed comparison I've seen is covid vs. HIV.
1) "The flu" is actually a family of similar viruses, not one single bug.
2) The "flu shot" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines, which are selected twice each year based on which (of many available) strains of flu they guesstimate are *most* likely to be *most* prevalent in the coming season. It is never intended, nor would it ever be able, to prevent all flu. It's intended to reduce the impact on society, and improve your individual odds. The bonus is that if you get the shot annually, it improves your odds against strains which are not included in the current shot, because you have some immunity left for strains from years past, which may still circle around.
3) The flu mutates rapidly in a fast cycle which occurs in a unique "reservoir animal" ecosystem of pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in Asia. By bouncing back and forth between species (with vast numbers of animal hosts), it's afforded a tremendous opportunity to mutate. After which it it jumps to people and makes it's way around the world.
4) Many flu strains have been circulating for years, and they have vaccines on the shelf for those. When a new robust mutation pops up, they have to make a NEW vaccine within months to get it into the next cycle's flu shot cocktail. They actually have that down to a science.
Covid has not shown any indication of getting into domestic livestock in a manner such that it can readily jump back and forth between livestock and humans. Once covid is beaten back into a dark corner it will have vastly reduced mutation opportunities.
A covid vaccine is a lot more straight-forward.
1) "The flu" is actually a family of similar viruses, not one single bug.
2) The "flu shot" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines, which are selected twice each year based on which (of many available) strains of flu they guesstimate are *most* likely to be *most* prevalent in the coming season. It is never intended, nor would it ever be able, to prevent all flu. It's intended to reduce the impact on society, and improve your individual odds. The bonus is that if you get the shot annually, it improves your odds against strains which are not included in the current shot, because you have some immunity left for strains from years past, which may still circle around.
3) The flu mutates rapidly in a fast cycle which occurs in a unique "reservoir animal" ecosystem of pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in Asia. By bouncing back and forth between species (with vast numbers of animal hosts), it's afforded a tremendous opportunity to mutate. After which it it jumps to people and makes it's way around the world.
4) Many flu strains have been circulating for years, and they have vaccines on the shelf for those. When a new robust mutation pops up, they have to make a NEW vaccine within months to get it into the next cycle's flu shot cocktail. They actually have that down to a science.
Covid has not shown any indication of getting into domestic livestock in a manner such that it can readily jump back and forth between livestock and humans. Once covid is beaten back into a dark corner it will have vastly reduced mutation opportunities.
A covid vaccine is a lot more straight-forward.
I’m very aware that influenza and COVID are totally different viruses that coronaviruses mutate much slower making vaccine development easier. The reason previous coronaviruses did not have a vaccine developed was because these viruses either disappeared like SARS or were so mild (like the coronaviruses that cause many colds) that vaccine development had no financial incentive.
As for COVID in livestock, Mink farms are the only source of large outbreaks I am familiar with.
12-07-2020, 01:27 PM
#34
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,289
Originally Posted by KelvinHelmholtz
That’s exactly what the point of my post was. Asking the other poster if he thinks they are the same because they obviously are not.
I’m very aware that influenza and COVID are totally different viruses that coronaviruses mutate much slower making vaccine development easier. The reason previous coronaviruses did not have a vaccine developed was because these viruses either disappeared like SARS or were so mild (like the coronaviruses that cause many colds) that vaccine development had no financial incentive.
As for COVID in livestock, Mink farms are the only source of large outbreaks I am familiar with.
I’m very aware that influenza and COVID are totally different viruses that coronaviruses mutate much slower making vaccine development easier. The reason previous coronaviruses did not have a vaccine developed was because these viruses either disappeared like SARS or were so mild (like the coronaviruses that cause many colds) that vaccine development had no financial incentive.
As for COVID in livestock, Mink farms are the only source of large outbreaks I am familiar with.
Minks are fine, so are most other wild animals and livestock, which can be maintained at arms length from humans and can be culled if needed (as opposed to sleeping in their huts with them). What you don't want is a large livestock reservoir pool which cannot be mostly isolated from people. That would probably be animals which are inextricably embedded in society in developing parts of the world.
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