Enjoy it while it lasts.

That's what airbus expected when they developed the great white elephant. Turns out frequency works better, since pax prefer that to standing in line for an hour to board a cattle-car that's departing at an inconvenient time.

Also current widebodies are optimized for long-haul cruise so they are inefficient for shorter flights.

If traffic congestion got to the point where slot limits prevented more frequency the you might see widebody's optimized for short-haul.

It's already happening. Every month since July we have almost as many FOs leaving for legacies/majors as Captains.

Boeing made some 747’s like that for japan (eg 400’s without winglets)

this will not last long enough to shape aircraft orders. But if narrow bodies have to pick up regional lift, it seems like widebodies get a bigger role in domestic work. Presumably transcons, NY > FL, CA>Hawaii.

I live in Orlando. What regional would be my best bet for commuting back home to the family ? I’m 150 short of 1500 so I’m getting close.

Sir, this is a Wendy's

Most people have already started to interview by 1000 hours so they are ready to jump at 1500 hours. I'd look at the regionals that best suit you and start interviewing to see who offers a job.

Oh, and find a better thread for this post. Not really the topic of this one.

Yeah I don’t think it’s going to be this crazy for years and years to come. Everyone just realized they need to jump on pilots now. For example between now and the end of 2022 AA “plans” to hire approximately 2500 pilots. The 3 peak years 2024-2026 we retire about 2400 combined… AA hires like this for 2-3 years they have covered their retirements until almost 2030. I’m sure Delta and United’s hiring/retirement numbers look the same. It’s going to be triage mode for a while but it’s not going to be 5-10 years of absurd hiring numbers.

…so, assuming one is just starting flight training from zero hours at this very moment, the big wave will most likely be gone by the time one is in a position to be able to apply at the majors, correct?

Without sugar coating it, yes. Even people getting hired at the legacies today are more on the top of the wave than the front. Seniority progression will likely be rapid, but will begin to stall about halfway up the list. Many may be left with the choice of good money and great quality of life as a senior wide body FO or great money and poor quality of life as a junior narrobody captain. It’s still a pretty great choice to have to make (and to have the choice at all), but people hired today won’t slingshot straight to the top 25% overnight.

Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.

Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.