Major Airline Hiring 2020
 

I figured this deserved its own thread.

According to official announcements, here are the hiring plans for 2022.


Alaska: 167
Allegiant: 184
American: 1500+ (goal is over 1800)
Delta: 1800
FedEx: 800
Frontier: 600
JetBlue: 600
Southwest: 1200
Spirit: 400
United: 1500 (goal is over 1800)
UPS: 260


That will be about 9000 pilots hired in a year at major airlines in the US, provided that these airlines can find enough pilots to hire and training departments can keep up.

The real question is, which regionals will be the first to fall? I would expect at least a few regionals are parking large percentages of their fleet in early Spring.

That is the way I got it figured.

While some will come from the military, and some from others, the bulk will be from the regionals. Regionals have 20,000 pilots, CA and FO combine.

The real problem for the regionals is that they are primarily going to lose captains, and there will not be qualified pilots to replace them.

For some regionals yes. SkyWest has a decent cadre of lifers that will hang out to keep the lights on, and legacies will begin sniping FOs quickly too as choosing between someone with 1000 hours in the right seat + 100 hours in the left seat vs choosing someone who has 900 hours in the right seat will be of minimal difference to them.

Expect to see a massive return of the E-3 visa program too. Lots of Australian pilots that are out of work too, with no hope left in their home country.

Hopefully the unions in the US will fight this tooth and nail. The last thing that any of us need are foreign pilots coming in and driving down wages and the leverage that we have. We fought off the NAI carriers, now we need to fight off the E-3's.

The only thing Australians should be able to apply for is refugee status from their oppressive regime

your spirit number may be wrong. 400 was the hiring number for 2021.

planning 72/month for 2022, so 800 give or take

Agreed. Regionals have been exploiting E-3 visas to get cheap temporary labor for years. They need to go.

My prediction a few years ago was shrinkage by 50% of the pilots flying the regionals (i.e. 10,000 down from 20,000) and a shrinkage of 75% of the number of regional airlines. People scoffed at me. Said we would never see that. Well…..get ready.

…very interesting, I wonder what those of us just beginning flight training can expect in a few years. I’m in my early 30’s and took a while because of “life”, plus, I wanted to save and pay for my flight training in one go, anyways, we shall see what the future holds.

Southwest has said the goal for 2022 was also 1800. Should make for a fun year. Buckle up and get ready!

Is there a public database of LCA’s? If I were big6 HR I’d start trying to headhunt.

They have been. That is why there are such huge retention bonuses in place at the AA WO regionals. They are trying to get their experienced captains and check airmen to stay as long as possible.

I know that 20k number had been tossed around during the 2010’s but I’m thinking it’s more like 15k now. 5k at Skywest 2.5k at envoy 2.5k at republic, 1.5k at 9e, 1.5 at Mesa, and maybe 3k between psa, pdt, commutair and gojet?

Skywest is over 5500 right now and aiming for 7000, not sure about the others.

PSA is about to hit 2k by itself.

9E has almost 2k. But who knows what that number looks like by spring/summer especially with how many are leaving come Nov. People are leaving now but flow numbers will be added come Nov.

Alright boys well let’s get everyone to submit numbers and find out if it’s closer to 20 or 15k

no i mean real headhunting

HH: “good morning can I speak to Orville Wright IV”
OW4: “this is he”
HH: “Captain Wright, United would like to offer you a class date. When can you start”

Envoy 2250

The real question is how far they can throttle back the flow without losing all their regional pilots to other majors. Because pirating your competitions feedstock is going to become the name of the game before long.

AirWis 600

All that really matters is how many Captains there are, and how many FOs that can upgrade quickly.

The real number is how many line qualified Captains does each regional have. How many Captains that bid and fly the line every month.

In the next 18 months, we could "half" the regionals.

The problem is that when you "half" the regionals, you are taking the top half off as the majority of the hires will be captains.

For easy math, let's say there is a fictions airline that has 1000 actual line captains (with medical, not on leave, and actually flying every month.) Then, in a 5 month span, they lose 200 captains (40 per month). The airline will start to park airplanes because they can not staff the flying. Thus, fewer FOs will be needed. They will do everything that they can to hire street captains and to upgrade all of the FOs that are eligible. Huge bonuses for street captains (as you see now at several carriers) will pop up, and the airlines will do everything that they can to prevent pilots from leaving (huge retention bonuses, as you see now).

Then they lose another 200.

Then another 200.

The attrition will be faster than FO's can fly 1000 hours and upgrade to captain.

Think about it. It takes at least 2 years of busy flying to really become a captain (initial training, IOE, building time, then upgrade training, OE). In the matter of 1 year, the regionals could lose +6000 captains, and at 18 months, lose closer to 10,000. Losing captains that aren't replaced means fewer flights, which means fewer FO's building time, which means fewer FO's eligible to upgrade in the future. It is a vicious cycle.

If the regionals lose 10,000 pilots to the majors, they will be much smaller than 1/2 the size that they are now. They might be a 1/4 of the size. The cycle has already started, as is evident by the huge retention and street captain bonuses.

But how many line captains that bid/fly every month, and how many FOs approaching 1000 hours that can upgrade. That is the number that matters.

But PSA is losing more Captains each month that they are upgrading. Total number doesn''t matter. The new hire pilots that are starting this week will likely never upgrade at the regionals.

PSA and PDT will be parking airplanes in the next 6 months if they can not stop their attrition and increase hiring of experienced FOs (direct entry captains). Envoy will likely be in the same boat. And they are some of the best off.

that is a compelling and terrifying story. Hadn’t realized the tipping point/positive feedback loop dynamics involved

They'll start hiring FOs over captains soon to avoid this scenario.

Right now I'd be inclined to NOT upgrade if I was at a regional that flew for the major carrier that I wanted to fly at.

I agree, If you listen to this advice you are far too gullible to be a captain.

imagine explaining to a recruiter why you have no PIC time, because a conspiracy
about that very recruiters own hiring shenanigans

YX about 2375

LCA’s seem like they could be another linchpin that might go extinct, although that might be easier to fix with money

As for the majors only hiring FO’s …. even if that happens (doubtful) non-legacy hiring should be sufficient to cause trouble

14735 + commutair, piedmont, gojet, Mesa, horizon

Some percentage of these are lifers and some have zero or practically zero 121 time keep in mind. Some have no 4 yr degree

RPA 2461
PSA 1741
PDT 746
ENY 2500
EDV 1905
AW 545
CA 660
GJ 500
MESA 1207
HZ 850
SKW 5152


These numbers were taken from the snapshot of each respective airline on APC. Around 19,000 total. Obvious fluctuation in the past 2 years, however I do believe these numbers are close. With the amount of legacy/major retirements slated for the next 10 years there aren't enough pilots (total at the above mentioned regionals) to staff retirement attrition, let alone growth. There is an average of 2,850 age related mandatory retirements from all of the legacies, majors, as well as two major cargo ops. TOTAL for the next decade.

Things are going to be interesting the next several years!

Or, other legacy airlines will hire you just so they can hurt their competition. Look how many AA WO pilots are going to United right now! At least 30 captains per month.

You’re fighting the last war. Experienced captains who check all the boxes otherwise will get hired just fine when the shooting really starts

Frontier knows this. That is why they have built the pathways from Purdue, Embry-Riddle and so on. Right now they are only hiring a few per month, but when the going gets good, they can easily expand that, and destroy the "cadet" pathways to regionals.

The problem with Frontier, however, is that there are always quite a few Frontier pilots that would leave and go to a legacy if given the opportunity. I agree that Frontier may be able to get some good pilots directly from the schools before they even get to the regionals. But, the legacy airlines can steal good, qualified pilots from Frontier at will.

Oh absolutely, but it will keep their supply lines open. When legacies open their doors, the traditional feed from regionals will be reduced.

You wouldn't have to explain why you didn't have PIC when nearly everyone else you're interviewing with has the same exact resume, you just have a bit more TT than they do.

I'm pretty sure Frontier is A-OK with that. Keeps their labor cost low.

oh wow. That’s one way to upgrade, convince others not to lol

The scary part is those are the people you really don’t want to scrape the bottom of the barrel for. Eventually if these numbers pan out you’re going to have a few solid lifers left surrounded by the greener than green or the totally incompetent.