Another option would be to grant regional LCA a mainline seniority number, mainline pay, maybe some schedule relief, and a bonus to stay and teach in RJ's for some period of time. Works in their favor because they can enjoy the benefits of their regional seniority while building mainline seniority for mainline pay. Could also be extended to non-LCA CA's if needed.

Squadron buddies won't approve

until “squadron buddies” start making bottom dollar for these companies, I don’t think they should have a say.

That would be an ideal scenario IMO.

The squadron buddies can still get hired just like usual. You just change the way the civilians get hired.

The problem is that we have all been so abused that we are trying to come up with ways to salvage the regional system. The regional system should go away completely!

The pilots before us created this b scale, whip saw driven system designed to keep flying cheap at the lower level and in turn got a few extra bucks in retirement. It is time to take scope back.

Anything with jet engines that seats more than 19 people should be a mainline aircraft. Period. End of story. We should have A220s and A319s doing the short haul and regional flying with mainline pilots in those seats.

Our goal should be to let the regional system die a quick death, and move on from there! Stop trying to fix a terrible system designed to hurt pilots.

Totally agree. But that's just not how game theory works.

This is what we call Stockholm Syndrome.

Little problem... only people who can make that happen is mainline management and mainline pilot groups.

The former like the status quo.

The latter don't want to waste negotiating capital on "saving the regional pilots". Also NB & WB pilots probably get some benefit by having a larger slice of the overall pilot labor pie... if they bring RJ pilots to mainline, they get paid more with better bennies which means less pie for NB/WB.

The pilots who sold scope got a better deal for themselves… screw the ones who come next

possible bringing some flying back in house might provide a similar one time boost to the mainline guys as they suddenly get 20% stapled underneath them

A couple problems there.

1. The seniority boost wouldn't mean anything because we don't want to be RJ pilots... NB FO pays better than RJ CA as it is, and we don't want to change that. So no real gain.

2. You cannot staple pilot groups involuntarily (federal law). You could offer a regional group a deal, if they *agree* to be stapled that's OK but that would probably happen only if there was a threat of extinction... ie we're taking our flying back from your company, do you want to come with planes at the bottom of the list. But even that might be subject to a variety of legal hassles... there will always be *somebody* who wants to make waves. COMAIR could have had a staple, but they held out for DOH... instead of the goldmine, they got the shaft :rolletes:

3. Not saying it will never happen, but one of the obstacles is the need for bare min R-ATP FO's to staff regionals. Majors REALLY don't want to put people like that on their seniority lists where they'll be stuck with them for 40+ years. They want to see some experience, both life and turbine, at least a little bit. Maybe they could have a dual hiring track... experienced pilots (mil and civ) are hired like they always have been and can bid anything, but CFI's are restricted to RJs and don't get off probation for three years and 2000 company hours or something like that. They don't vote, so pay for the "apprentices" could stay low-ish.

“Staple” plan would require appropriate group 1 captain pay.

and AA can just flow everyone. Voila, staple

Why would a staple even be considered when a company could simply add rj’s to their certificate and hire accordingly off of the street? It’s already their flying and they would have to own or lease the planes that they were to operate. A staple would involve longevity, pay, and integration issues. Simply hiring people as new hires eliminates all of that. I’d think that airline management would follow the path of less cost and less hassle.

I think you missed the whole point. The whole "hire accordingly off of the street" is the problem. They simply can't. The legacy airlines are predicting that they will have significant difficulty hiring within the next 12 months. There simply are not 5000 "legacy airline" candidates available anywhere except for their own regional feeds. 1000 or so great candidates will come from military/91/135, but most companies only count on 1/2 of the military pilots that they hire available for the first few years anyways with guard/reserve obligations.

A true staple will never happen, and we all know that. But how they play it out will be interesting. Companies will be parking regional jets by April, and the mainline carriers can not afford to lose their regional feed next summer. There has already been a lot of up-gauging of service, and this will continue as more mainline aircraft are added. Markets that were previously only served by regionals are now getting mainline jets with fewer flights per day.

Just remember, if they could hire all they wanted, they would not be paying massive retention bonuses at the regionals. The legacy airlines don't want their competition to poach their regional feed because they need those pilots.

The airlines will scream bloody murder until congress lets them hire 250hr wonders again.

They will intentionally cancel flights to make a spectacle out of it. Congress will fold.

Where are they going to find the 175 sims?
Between SkyWest (owns the majority) Mesa, and Envoy, there might be a clapped out sim in Afghanistan we could utilize. How long will the process of buying sims and hiring instructors take? Probably years, time UAL doesn’t have.

What are the most pilots UA has hired AND TRAINED in a year. Now you have to utilize your already thin resources to hire AND train RJ types. Your answer to this issue seems simple, but it’s not.

I thought Rick had a great idea with the 2000 hours or at least 3 years of probation. Unfortunately problem pilots can get through with 1000-1500 hours of piston only. I’d carry that even if they bought out a regional. Once on property at UA they need to prove themselves for 2,000 hours blocked at UA before being removed off probation (or 3 years, which ever comes first).

Quite a few of the 175 sims are either owned by the legacy airlines (AA especially) or are leased by the regionals from the training centers. They are not all owned by the regionals. The mainline carriers have a lot more "pull" with the training centers than the regionals do. Plus, it would be pretty easy for United to say to SkyWest that they need their sims, or they would lose all of the United flying.

The regionals really don't hold any good cards in this scenario. The major airlines have the power.

Why would SkyWest or Mesa give up 175 sims to UA? Why would AAG give up 175 sims to UA? It wouldn’t be “pretty easy”, not even close.

AAG owns 4 175 sims. Plus twice as many CRJ sims.

There are E190 sims out there that are available right now.

It doesn't really take that long to buy a new sim and get it up and running. 18 months at the most.

Whoever owns the flying, owns the power. Sims are not very valuable if they sit there vacant and not able to be used. It isn't hard for a legacy airline to tell a regional what they need in exchange for a good contract. SkyWest/RJET really can't afford to lose the flying of any legacy partner right now.

So they give UAL those 170-190 sims and….. lose the flying anyways….. what the hell are you talking about? Do you think SkyWest/Rjet only contracts for UA? How would DL, AA, AS feel about SkyWest giving up training resources to UA for what exactly again?

Unfortunately regionals hold more power than you think, because unfortunately airlines like SWA, F9, and Spirit would have the legacy’s filing BK in a few years if they couldn’t utilize cheap regionals to hold their slots. Legacy’s can’t afford to run 73’s through every slot they own. Use it or lose it, the minute they give up those slots to the ULCC’s, it’s game over.

Could they hire enough of the kind of people they want, who are also willing to start on RJ's for low pay and train them fast enough? Maybe.

Some people would jump at the chance to fly an RJ with a mainline number. A lot of the mil people might not sign up for that paycut, might just get some other airline job (or non-airline job, for which they are also marketable).

A turnkey arrangement allows rapid integration of planes & crews (FARs allow that without re-training everybody).

My argument was that there isn’t a need for a stapler. The legacy company could simply hire the same regional pilots affected by taking the flying in house as new hires instead of a stapler and avoid all longevity or integration issues. Those pilots wouldn’t be 10 year regional pilots transferring over, they would simply be year 1 new hires just like any other applicant. No pass longevity, vacation accrual, etc. to deal with. Another option is always a legit flow type deal. After so long a regional flows up to a legacy and is treated as just another new hire along with military and OTS pilots.

Well rumor has it both AA and DAL might increase flow numbers at their WO.

This is all purely hypothetical and highly unlikely, but if a company like United were to take back the 175’s that they own, the regionals currently flying those aircraft wouldn’t need to fill those sim slots and they would become available for other companies to lease. SkyWest for example is a company that both operates and leases aircraft. If a legacy were to approach them with an offer to lease aircraft and sims, that could be a better deal than simply losing the revenue when the flying is pulled anyway.

Things are changing again. Some smaller markets are losing service while others are seeing larger aircraft. One very effective way to deal with a shortage of pilots, is to simply require fewer pilots. Instead of 6 flights on a 175, they get 3 flights on a 737. The shortage of pilots is an industry issue, not something only affecting a specific company. The industry will adapt, and I expect that adaptation to involve fewer flights, serving larger markets on larger aircraft. Another option would be a modern and efficient 50 seat aircraft. Embraer is talking about a turboprop, but what they are talking about wouldn’t fit most scope clauses since it has more than 50 seats. Either way, the clock is ticking, aircraft are aging, scope isn’t changing, and replacements don’t seem to be likely. What ever happens, we’re all just spectators along for the ride.

Those Sim slots would not become available. My reference is this, years ago Mesa was working on a 170-190 cert so they could fly UA 175 birds. SkyWest management bought out every 170-190 sim available to make JO’s operation more expensive. They had Mesa flying crews to Paris, it won’t be a simple as you say.

Full disclosure: SkyWest was doing sims in Paris too at one point.

If legacies (not just United) we’re to start taking back more flying and operate 175’s, SkyWest wouldn’t want those sim slots to sit vacant as internal demand diminished and would then make them available for lease. This is all just fantasy speculation since the legacies are not likely to take 175’s in house. UAX will keep all of the 175’s where they are and therefore utilize the training slots with UAX pilots. I think that the most likely scenario is that the regionals have all of the 70/76 seat aircraft that they will ever have and that they will simply shrink as the 50 seat fleet is phased out. UAX for instance would consist of 175’s and 550’s, while UAL covers everything else. Larger, more efficient, and comfortable aircraft with reduced frequency serving the most lucrative markets seems to be where the market and Kirby are taking us.

“May you live in interesting times.” - attributed to an ancient Chinese proverb.

2022 (and beyond) will be known as interesting times.

Where did you hear that one?

This true, it was a good deal, especially if you prior time in type.

Not true. filler

AA just increased their flow* numbers with the retention bonuses.

*flow increase dependent on non AA attrition numbers per month

No, there is talk about actual flow increases. ALPA has supposedly received initial info from AA, but there are strings attached (as you would expect). Looks like 4-12 more per month, depending on the WO. (PDT getting 4 more, Envoy getting 12 more). Not dependent on attrition, but a real flow increase.

Well for the first time ever I actually believe it since they did it with stipulations. I think retention would be better in Piedmont’s case if they just went to 10 a month from 6. If I was 2 years out that would more likely keep me around cutting it to 14 months more than $30,000

The attrition numbers are totally unrealistic so it was effectively a no flow increase.

They will have to increase the numbers, they have a huge retention issue and they need to fix it asap. Increasing flow would be an easy way to do it, and I hope they will.

I don’t they can increase flow enough to fix the problem. AA is looking to hire 150/month this year and they’re currently Flowing something like 30/month. Say they triple the flow. (Unlikely but not impossible). That would have PSA flowing 360/year. Couple problems

1) they lose 360 captains
2) the guys at 500-800 still are over a year out. Why would they pass up the greatest hiring wave in a generation? Dl/ua/fdx/ups are gonna snatch up several hundred others


now psa still has no captains and the whole house of cards implodes

The house of cards is imploding with outside attrition now. Maybe some suit at AA figured it out and is thinking to get as many on property before end game does occur. Otherwise the competition gets even more of “their” pilots.

A lot of people from my personal experience really want to work for AA a huge reason is hub locations, PHL, CLT and MIA. I think it would stop a few know they can get to their number 1 faster. Call them whatever for turning down United to wait 1.5 years to flow but maybe they live in CLT and don’t want to commute for 30 years.

I have talked to several that are leaving and their plan is to get on with UAL/FedEx and then get hired faster at AA. And if they don't get hired on at AA, they are in a far better place than they were at PSA.

There have been many that have done this in the past.

The “some people want to flow” argument isn’t wrong but it’s irrelevant. The WO’s are near an unsustainable tipping point. It’s like saying half your red blood cells want to stay but the other half are going on the floor. You can only lose so many