That was the problem I had when comparing waiting to flow and getting hired elsewhere. I would have got to AA in my late 40s. ACMI pays better than NB CA these days. Over a million dollars more in career earnings at ACMI for me than if I waited for flow. If you get to AA in your 20s, it's an awesome deal. For older guys, not so much.

For you and everyone else focused on how great it has to be, look back at threads from 2019, than read threads from 2020. You need to be emotionally/financially prepared for the unexpected shocks to the system. Additionally, airline management across the industry will be looking for ways to increase pilot supply and decrease demand. I can’t predict exactly how it will work out, but the rosy forecasts are likely wrong. Today’s too big to fail is tomorrow’s Lehman Bros.

Anybody that doesn’t think we are looking at serious inflation and quite possibly stagflation isn’t paying attention.

Might want to talk to your doctor about increasing your dose of prozac.

Yes, there are problems right now. Everyone sees them. Some may impact the industry. Some are actually helping the industry right now, and we will need to see how this all plays out.

To pretend that anyone knows how this is going to change aviation is laughable.

Inflation is already here. The only two questions are whether it becomes stagflation and also whether it also turns into hyperinflation

Hyperinflation? Seriously, put down the crack pipe. You really think you will see 50-100% inflation rates?

US hyperinflation would mean a global economic collapse in a scale never experienced in history.

Almost like a great reset that we can build back better from

You realize that 40% of dollars in existence were printed in the last year, right?

You realize that is not what inflation means, right?

More Dollars X Lower Velocity of those Dollars = Essentially Unchanged, thus NOT a cause of inflation.

Most of those extra government payments went to savings or paying down personal debt. They did not go to extra spending. My investment management firm presented clear graphs that show this. (Unfortunately I am not permitted to reproduce them here.)

If money supply increases faster than real output, it will cause inflation. In other words, If there is more money chasing the same amount of goods, firms will just increase prices.

Does that sound familiar right now?

Hyperinflation is a totally different topic. Price of a good increases 50%+ in a day will never be the result of the feds printing too much paper.

If we have a shortage of goods, resulting in consumer panic (mom buys 15 gallons of milk on single grocery run due to fear of supply shortage) that could create a hyperinflation event. We are currently having supply issues, and it’s getting worse, that’s what I’m more fearful of.

Thankfully, the last time we had morons hoarding toilet paper in fear, a shortage in supply wasn’t actually an issue.

What I am saying is the extra money is NOT chasing more goods. If the money is either put in savings or used to pay down debt, you do not have the situation you are saying. This is velocity of money slowing.

Spending of that extra money is NOT occurring. People have been socking it away, based on reports from the Fed.

Short term inflation will occur when the supply of goods has reduced compared to two years ago. (Such as the shortage of chips.) Chip manufacturing capacity did not reduce. When the supply chain gets back in gear and suppliers resume manufacturing at previous levels, this short term price increase will ease. They will come back down. We are seeing this with lumber prices, right now. Supply prices of lumber for housing is starting to ease.

Now, the Fed can screw this up by jacking up the overnight interest rates, inverting the yield curve, throwing the country into a recession. The government can screw this up by massive spending, which indeed is inflationary. Those two not withstanding, what I said above should occur.

I am not saying this. My large, successful investment management firm, with lots of sound research, is saying this. They have a track record that is better at predicting what is going to happen than the talking heads you see.

Tell that to the Weimar Republic, or the people in Zimbabwe

Inflation can be both price inflation or monetary supply inflation. Monetary supply inflation always causes price inflation.

Only if the velocity of money stays high. If people quit spending it, thus velocity goes down significantly, then the result is not inflationary over the long term.

Hiring Numbers from September:

One of the interview prep companies sent out an email with an update today with the number of pilots hired in September.

Allegiant: 16
American: 80
Atlas: 30
Delta: 71
FedEx: 55
Frontier: 42
JetBlue: 72
Spirit: 48
United: 181
UPS: 53

Total: 647

This is the most pilots ever hired by the majors in a single month. Ever!

Note that Southwest isn't even on the list as they have not started hiring yet.

Ah yes, I remember when Zimbabwe was the center of the global financial system.

Say you know nothing about economics without saying you know nothing about economics.

I see so many pilots in all of these groups complaining about not getting the call from the legacy airlines yet.


Here are a couple questions:


How often are you updating your applications? At least 3-4 times per month?

Have you had your application and resume reviewed?

Have you attended a job fair? How about the one this past weekend?

Have you been networking to get several letters of recommendation?



For anyone that is serious about going to a legacy airline but hasn't been called yet, how was the RTAG convention in San Diego this weekend. Each person in line got to have at least 10 minutes "face time" with the recruiters at AA and they went over your resume with you. If it all looked good, they took your name for an upcoming interview.

United also gave you plenty of time with recruiters and many were told to expect a Hogan invite in the next couple weeks.

Were you there?

Love this post.

Do the work, get the results

For someone who wasn’t able to make it, any word from any of the Majors/ULCCs of hiring mil guys with rATP off the street?

I have people tell me all the time that they aren't getting calls from the majors. But they aren't willing to put the work in, so they get what they deserve.

there have been many, many years when people do the work and get nothing. It’s not common (as it has been the last few months) that doing the work is a reliable path to a prompt interview

You are correct, and times change. People that have put in the work for years are getting hired right now.

Those that are putting in the hard work now are next in line to get hired.

The ones that are not willing to put in the hard work will be left behind.

What’s the alternative? Give up and whine about it on the internet? Go for it…

With all the hiring all the majors are doing now is there any hope for someone who just started or is about to start and won't be able to interview at a major for 2-4 years? Feels like the boat is sailing away. If you're lucky you might get to be the junior guy at a major for most of your career if that's when you join 3-4 years from now.

You can't control what you can't control so why worry about it? This industry is all about timing and very few people have any control over it.

If you’re just starting out, don’t think that you’ll be marketable and at a major that fast. It could happen, but you’d be the lucky exception. There are no guarantees. If you want to do this, then commit to doing the work and just do it. You might spend 5 years in the regionals, you might spend 10, you might never get a call, or blow your one interview chance. It’s just the way it is. There are plenty of people who serve 20 year careers in the military and then go on to have lucrative careers with the airlines. Don’t think that 5-10 years in the regionals is too much of a burden. Some get lucky, but there is no easy or quick path to getting hired at a company that you want to retire from. If you want to do this, just commit to doing the work and don’t slack up until you are where you want to be.

Exactly.

There is no telling when the perfect time is until it hits. Pilots were furloughed a year ago, now is a massive hiring frenzy. There is no telling what is going to happen, but the key is to be ready when the time is right. Work hard and hopefully it will all work out perfectly for you. That's really all you can do.

What would be terrible is to have a great opportunity fall in your lap but you are not qualified because you have not been working hard for the last couple years. That is happening to A LOT of people that I know. They didn't want to be Check Airmen, they did't want to bother finishing up that degree that they are only a couple semesters away from completing, they didn't want to bother pushing towards getting the 1000 TPIC. They preferred to slack off and hang back. Now, their peers are all leaving for legacy airlines and they stuck at a regional and are trying to play catch up now. Those are usually the ones complaining when they see people 4 years junior to them leaving.

At PSA, there are at least 11 pilots that I know of that were hired in 2018 that just got good job offers at major and legacy airlines in the last 2 months. This is at a time when 2014 hires won't even be done flowing until close to the end of 2022.

to the extent there’s a “normal” in the airline world, that normal is being junior for at least most of your career. Some people luck into rapid seniority progression but that’s luck.

And probably, realistically, someone starting now will miss the wave. But the majors will still hire and even being a narrowbody FO at a major is a fine job.

It’s not like there is just one wave. There are many, and always will be, but if people won’t do the work and paddle out, the next wave is irrelevant if they’re not prepared to catch it. Timing the waves has proven to be more luck than skill. Just do the work and be prepared when it comes. If that’s a risk that people aren’t willing to take, then this career isn’t for them.

What’s the biggest piece of advice any of you could give a 121 new hire FO?

I’ll take anything I can get at this point. You guys have been through it before and I want to be a sponge and try to soak up as much knowledge as I can.

Don’t commute

Lol 0/1 so far

Don't work for Hulas or J.O.

Don't get comfortable until you get to your "dream job", and then don't get complacent once you get there. Respect the career. Have fun, but work hard. It always pays off in the end.

^^^^

Stay on target until you reach your career goal. Any laxness on that will result in lost opportunities and long-term cost ib QOL and compensation.

It is very easy to get lazy once you get to being a senior FO or a senior captain at a regional. Once you are holding a good line, holding vacations off during the holidays, and making decent money, it is easy to just hang back and let it ride while you enjoy it for a few years. But you are giving up serious seniority at a legacy airline by doing so. Trade a couple of "easy" years for a great 15 years at the end of your career and a few million dollars.

Invest as much money as you can when you’re young. Live for cheap. Cut your food and housing costs as much as you can while socking money away. Try to live for free if you can.

Invest all that you can in the 401k. You can always take a loan from it in the future for a downpayment

Don’t fool around with FAs unless you plan on marrying them, and even then that is the typically only done by 50+ year olds post divorce # 2