I was talking from my experience I was pushing for the big 3 but put time frames on when I would go to each depending on my time to flow. For example if I was within 6 months of flowing I wouldn’t keep applying except to AA. Bumping up the flow would’ve have helped me stay for the flow. If it was 5 to 3 years I’d still try to go anywhere but 18 months to 10 I probably stick it out. Just saying in my case a flow increase would’ve helped more than money.

Confucius says that Flow Agreements rarely last long enough for the majority of said pilot group to actually flow. It is no different here, we are seeing the beginning of the end.

I'd much rather sit and apply to my #1 major while in a seat at my #2 major, if bases are that important. Besides, most majors' contacts will allow you to have more days off commuting than sitting in base at a regional.

I'm near atp mins and I 100% want to go to an AA WO.

Having a hard time choosing between the three.

Can someone give me the pros and cons of each? And which one has the slowest flow, and fastest flow?

Where do you live? There really is almost no reason to go to PDT right now.

I have homes near all the bases, so relocating or living where the base is near is not a problem. I live in both Philly and Miami. Originally from Philly... Building flight time in Miami.

PSA
Envoy
PDT

In that order imo

Agreed. But depending how long you're at major #2 leaving for major #1 might not even be worth it..

Imo commuting isn't bad but I also know where I commute it's not hard and there are tough ones out there. Plus having positive space commute makes it seamless. And I'm commuting to a regional.

Maybe on the AA WO side. Just saying that's what I heard. But on the DAL WO...I wouldn't be surprised especially since it's been brought up for retention reasons.

This is the most likely scenario of all the hypotheticals that I’ve read

What about PSA withholding flow to staff the operation?
PSA has in the past withheld flow for several months, in order to fulfill flying. Imagine what that would do to pilot morale, and loss of seniority.

One of the worries is that AA is doing something like that with its WO regionals, but most people don't seem to have caught on yet. If they just withhold for a few months, it will certainly cause a lot of gripes and discontent. They need to be more creative than that.

Instead, AA may have found another way around their problem of losing as many at the regionals. Right now, class sizes at AA are 45 per week, so 180 per month. Before Covid, they were 120 per month. A net gain of 60 per month. It is clear that AA training simply can not handle that many, so why would they increase hiring each month if it is not sustainable? Wouldn't that create a backlog in training and possibly skipped classes in the future? EXACTLY!

So, AA hires 180 per month for several months, creating a backlog in training, and then in July (a random month), they stop hiring for a month to catch up. Then they do the same in December. So, 10 months of hiring each year.

AA is still able to hire plenty of pilots, they give their training department a chance to catch up, and best of all...they have to only flow 10 classes worth instead of 12 classes. Since the AA WO only have to flow pilots in months that AA hires, they don't have to flow as many. For PSA, that would mean 20 less flows per year. AA wins and PSA/PDT/Envoy management win. Those that get stuck at PSA longer because of this lose.

One thing is clear, increased class sizes at AA are bad for flows. It means that there are more people in front of you in line every month. Worst case scenario, this is true and less flow each year.

Robin Williams had a bit where he called an idea particularly ineffective by saying "that's like putting gauze in front of an 18 wheeler and saying "Come on through!"

Hiring 10 instead of 12 months/year would save 20 captains at PSA. Few more at Envoy, few less at Piedmont. Better than nothing but nowhere near a match for the problem.

As for the WO's paused flow for operational necessity, that would really open the attrition floodgates. AA would instead lose a multiple of the number they saved to literally everyone else in the airline universe. ULCC's are hiring, big 6 are hiring, ACMI are hiring. Other regionals likely to be poaching experienced captain-capable pilots. The only way this ends well is if they make people WANT to stay at the WO's.

Personally, I don't "want" to stay anywhere unless I am building seniority and longevity at a legacy airline that will be the last that I ever work for. I want to work towards the top of the list, and that is it.

I can't get that at a regional.

Most people agree, which is why I doubt the WO’s succeed.

but not everyone. If they start paying captains an extra $10k/month, many will stay. Lot of variables and uncertainty but I don’t think it’s impossible

How is it possible that the majors don’t ensure the success of their WOs? Won’t they do whatever it takes to keep their owned feed afloat? I know everyone discounts the possibility of a staple but IF all this crazy hiring actually takes place, that’s probably the best cost-effective solution. Right?

I would define “succeed” as continued and stable independent operation in 2023.

It will be extraordinarily costly to make captains want to stay at a regional when the whole industry is hiring at Vne.

It will be extraordinarily costly and complicated to bring the regional fleet in house along with the pilots, fa’s, mechanics and ground crew.

It will be extraordinarily difficult to run an airline with greatly reduced regional lift.

My personal favorite wildcard scenario is massive domestic widebody deployment to support upgauging the entire operation.

It’s easy to shoot “these are the 16 reasons they would never” holes in every scenario. But IF the regionals have to contract, something weird has to happen in response.

Because when the Majors are faced with their own contraction due to staffing issues...they could care less about the minor leagues. And we won't reach peak retirements until 2025 and beyond! Lets say Major X loses 1,000 pilots in a year to mandatory retirement. To keep the status quo schedule, at a minimum they have to hire 1000 new pilots. Thus (roughly) 800 pilots are hired from the regionals (rest from Mil/135). They will decimate the regionals to maintain the status quo at the Major. They will "do whatever it takes" to keep their own selves afloat! Survival of the fittest, Darwinism, whatever you want to call it.

The real problem is FOs. The regionals can (and are) hiring FOs like crazy, but they legally can't become a CA until they reach 1000 hrs Pt 121. And you can't achieve that if your planes are parked due to CA attrition. Then the Majors will start poaching highly qualified FOs. Now the regional is getting robbed from the top and the bottom, and the hub and spoke system deteriorates. We just can't produce enough FOs fast enough unless Congress makes changes to the 1500 hr rule, the 1000 hr/2500TT CA rule, etc, I think the puppy mill flight universities will need to graduate kids in 3 yrs vice 4. But even that will be too late.

If the airline industry wants to maintain it's current level of capacity (assuming demand remains level) we will need a WWII style production effort...Reduce minimum required hours, reduce graduation time at the Univ's, raise ticket prices for pax, increase domestic wide body flying to make up for loss of regional capacity, yada yada yada.

Oh, and don't forget, the Military can turn off the spigot with Stop Loss any time they choose.

According to RST, more than 40% of all people who interview with Delta have job offers already at other major airlines.


The days of "go to the major airline that calls" is quickly coming to an end.

AA did this before the pandemic. And I agree, they ll do it again. Last time was more blatant if I remember correctly. Suddenly no hires one month then twice what they had been doing prior the next month. So same number of hires over two months but half the flows.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

That's what airbus expected when they developed the great white elephant. Turns out frequency works better, since pax prefer that to standing in line for an hour to board a cattle-car that's departing at an inconvenient time.

Also current widebodies are optimized for long-haul cruise so they are inefficient for shorter flights.

If traffic congestion got to the point where slot limits prevented more frequency the you might see widebody's optimized for short-haul.

It's already happening. Every month since July we have almost as many FOs leaving for legacies/majors as Captains.

Boeing made some 747’s like that for japan (eg 400’s without winglets)

this will not last long enough to shape aircraft orders. But if narrow bodies have to pick up regional lift, it seems like widebodies get a bigger role in domestic work. Presumably transcons, NY > FL, CA>Hawaii.

I live in Orlando. What regional would be my best bet for commuting back home to the family ? I’m 150 short of 1500 so I’m getting close.

Sir, this is a Wendy's

Most people have already started to interview by 1000 hours so they are ready to jump at 1500 hours. I'd look at the regionals that best suit you and start interviewing to see who offers a job.

Oh, and find a better thread for this post. Not really the topic of this one.

Yeah I don’t think it’s going to be this crazy for years and years to come. Everyone just realized they need to jump on pilots now. For example between now and the end of 2022 AA “plans” to hire approximately 2500 pilots. The 3 peak years 2024-2026 we retire about 2400 combined… AA hires like this for 2-3 years they have covered their retirements until almost 2030. I’m sure Delta and United’s hiring/retirement numbers look the same. It’s going to be triage mode for a while but it’s not going to be 5-10 years of absurd hiring numbers.

…so, assuming one is just starting flight training from zero hours at this very moment, the big wave will most likely be gone by the time one is in a position to be able to apply at the majors, correct?

Without sugar coating it, yes. Even people getting hired at the legacies today are more on the top of the wave than the front. Seniority progression will likely be rapid, but will begin to stall about halfway up the list. Many may be left with the choice of good money and great quality of life as a senior wide body FO or great money and poor quality of life as a junior narrobody captain. It’s still a pretty great choice to have to make (and to have the choice at all), but people hired today won’t slingshot straight to the top 25% overnight.

Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.

Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.

For factual clarification, the forecasted hiring in 2022 (Majors, LCC, and 2 Cargo) is just over 9,000.

For the rest of the decade, Boeing has gone on the record forecasting 6,000 per year for the US, on average. That is retirements, early outs, and growth.

Not as much as 2022, but repeated hiring that is enough to suck the regional pool dry.

post of the year nomination right here. Great way to put it all in perspective.

Thank you for the detailed reply, I appreciate it. I will take your advice and just enjoy the ride without worrying too much about things I can’t control, regardless, this forum has always been a wealth of information and I’m glad to read that aviation is in a great place at the moment.

Just look at the retirements for the various legacy airlines. United for instance really hits it’s big retirement wave around 2030. Considering forecast increases in demand, airport congestion, passenger comfort demands, environmental factors, and fuel cost, the legacies will be meeting those demands by flying more flights with larger aircraft. The 50 seat aircraft will age out in the next 10 years (unless a cost effective replacement that meets scope requirements is produced), the 70/76 seat aircraft will remain with the regionals, and increased employment opportunities will be at companies providing better pay. I also think that pay will have to increase at the entry level positions to attract new pilots to this industry. The freight world is also facing the same demands and will be competing for pilots. This industry has always been very volatile with no guarantees, but for those willing to do the work, there should continue to be jobs out there. It might not be the fast track to easy money that some people luck into, but if you can check the boxes that top paying employers want and you learn to interview well, there should be light at the end of the tunnel. Just keep in mind that the roller coaster doesn’t end until you retire.

Just curious how you figure that people hired at legacies today aren't at the front of the hiring wave?

Retirements are going to go fairly strong well into the early 2030's. How could someone hired in 2021-2022 not be at the front?

The several years pre-covid saw significant hiring.

The theory would be that this is the start of a couple years of Vne hiring and with the airlines competing to stockpile pilots and it will taper in a few years.

This is somewhat definitional, but it’s sort of a “anymore widebody captains for 2040 left to be hired?” The answer may be no.

Looking at where wide body CA is going seniority wise at AA if you’re in your late twenties to mid thirties it’s about 15-20 years at the end of your career of being able to hold WB CA if that’s what you want. I am looking at project seniority based on retirements on AA pilots it’s about 7 years to 50% overall, 16 years to 25%. Even if your hired at 40 today you would be 25% by 56 and about 18% at 60. So I’m not sure what you guys are talking about.

Yes I know all the caveats with the industry* purely posting the actual numbers.

AA’s retirement curve is more precipitous than UA/DL

I'll disagree and say it completely depends on how old you are. I was a few years into a rapidly growing major and recently left to a legacy. For the first half of my career I'll end up at about even but the second half I'm going to end up far more senior than I would had I stayed at the major due to everyone being so dang young. If this is about AA specifically then I stand corrected as I'm not there. However you did say 'legacies.'

At AA if you’re hired on the young side you’re looking at 20 years WB CA, 30 NB CA, most of those years with good seniority.