I have people tell me all the time that they aren't getting calls from the majors. But they aren't willing to put the work in, so they get what they deserve.

there have been many, many years when people do the work and get nothing. It’s not common (as it has been the last few months) that doing the work is a reliable path to a prompt interview

You are correct, and times change. People that have put in the work for years are getting hired right now.

Those that are putting in the hard work now are next in line to get hired.

The ones that are not willing to put in the hard work will be left behind.

What’s the alternative? Give up and whine about it on the internet? Go for it…

With all the hiring all the majors are doing now is there any hope for someone who just started or is about to start and won't be able to interview at a major for 2-4 years? Feels like the boat is sailing away. If you're lucky you might get to be the junior guy at a major for most of your career if that's when you join 3-4 years from now.

You can't control what you can't control so why worry about it? This industry is all about timing and very few people have any control over it.

If you’re just starting out, don’t think that you’ll be marketable and at a major that fast. It could happen, but you’d be the lucky exception. There are no guarantees. If you want to do this, then commit to doing the work and just do it. You might spend 5 years in the regionals, you might spend 10, you might never get a call, or blow your one interview chance. It’s just the way it is. There are plenty of people who serve 20 year careers in the military and then go on to have lucrative careers with the airlines. Don’t think that 5-10 years in the regionals is too much of a burden. Some get lucky, but there is no easy or quick path to getting hired at a company that you want to retire from. If you want to do this, just commit to doing the work and don’t slack up until you are where you want to be.

Exactly.

There is no telling when the perfect time is until it hits. Pilots were furloughed a year ago, now is a massive hiring frenzy. There is no telling what is going to happen, but the key is to be ready when the time is right. Work hard and hopefully it will all work out perfectly for you. That's really all you can do.

What would be terrible is to have a great opportunity fall in your lap but you are not qualified because you have not been working hard for the last couple years. That is happening to A LOT of people that I know. They didn't want to be Check Airmen, they did't want to bother finishing up that degree that they are only a couple semesters away from completing, they didn't want to bother pushing towards getting the 1000 TPIC. They preferred to slack off and hang back. Now, their peers are all leaving for legacy airlines and they stuck at a regional and are trying to play catch up now. Those are usually the ones complaining when they see people 4 years junior to them leaving.

At PSA, there are at least 11 pilots that I know of that were hired in 2018 that just got good job offers at major and legacy airlines in the last 2 months. This is at a time when 2014 hires won't even be done flowing until close to the end of 2022.

to the extent there’s a “normal” in the airline world, that normal is being junior for at least most of your career. Some people luck into rapid seniority progression but that’s luck.

And probably, realistically, someone starting now will miss the wave. But the majors will still hire and even being a narrowbody FO at a major is a fine job.

It’s not like there is just one wave. There are many, and always will be, but if people won’t do the work and paddle out, the next wave is irrelevant if they’re not prepared to catch it. Timing the waves has proven to be more luck than skill. Just do the work and be prepared when it comes. If that’s a risk that people aren’t willing to take, then this career isn’t for them.