The real question is how far they can throttle back the flow without losing all their regional pilots to other majors. Because pirating your competitions feedstock is going to become the name of the game before long.

AirWis 600

All that really matters is how many Captains there are, and how many FOs that can upgrade quickly.

The real number is how many line qualified Captains does each regional have. How many Captains that bid and fly the line every month.

In the next 18 months, we could "half" the regionals.

The problem is that when you "half" the regionals, you are taking the top half off as the majority of the hires will be captains.

For easy math, let's say there is a fictions airline that has 1000 actual line captains (with medical, not on leave, and actually flying every month.) Then, in a 5 month span, they lose 200 captains (40 per month). The airline will start to park airplanes because they can not staff the flying. Thus, fewer FOs will be needed. They will do everything that they can to hire street captains and to upgrade all of the FOs that are eligible. Huge bonuses for street captains (as you see now at several carriers) will pop up, and the airlines will do everything that they can to prevent pilots from leaving (huge retention bonuses, as you see now).

Then they lose another 200.

Then another 200.

The attrition will be faster than FO's can fly 1000 hours and upgrade to captain.

Think about it. It takes at least 2 years of busy flying to really become a captain (initial training, IOE, building time, then upgrade training, OE). In the matter of 1 year, the regionals could lose +6000 captains, and at 18 months, lose closer to 10,000. Losing captains that aren't replaced means fewer flights, which means fewer FO's building time, which means fewer FO's eligible to upgrade in the future. It is a vicious cycle.

If the regionals lose 10,000 pilots to the majors, they will be much smaller than 1/2 the size that they are now. They might be a 1/4 of the size. The cycle has already started, as is evident by the huge retention and street captain bonuses.

But how many line captains that bid/fly every month, and how many FOs approaching 1000 hours that can upgrade. That is the number that matters.

But PSA is losing more Captains each month that they are upgrading. Total number doesn''t matter. The new hire pilots that are starting this week will likely never upgrade at the regionals.

PSA and PDT will be parking airplanes in the next 6 months if they can not stop their attrition and increase hiring of experienced FOs (direct entry captains). Envoy will likely be in the same boat. And they are some of the best off.

that is a compelling and terrifying story. Hadn’t realized the tipping point/positive feedback loop dynamics involved

They'll start hiring FOs over captains soon to avoid this scenario.

Right now I'd be inclined to NOT upgrade if I was at a regional that flew for the major carrier that I wanted to fly at.

I agree, If you listen to this advice you are far too gullible to be a captain.

imagine explaining to a recruiter why you have no PIC time, because a conspiracy
about that very recruiters own hiring shenanigans

YX about 2375

LCA’s seem like they could be another linchpin that might go extinct, although that might be easier to fix with money

As for the majors only hiring FO’s …. even if that happens (doubtful) non-legacy hiring should be sufficient to cause trouble