Regionals being wiped out with major hiring?
10-09-2021, 11:49 AM
#11
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2021
Posts: 794
Originally Posted by OOfff
the shortage was here in the late 2010s and is back again. You can see this in pay rates and bonus offerings. It absolutely happened and is happening.
Also the regionals should be aware they need to do better with pay, yet even now the “desperate” shops offer peanuts straight pay and a sucker bonus.
10-09-2021, 11:52 AM
#12
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Joined APC: Jun 2021
Posts: 794
Originally Posted by rickair7777
The big three, UPS, and FDX could shrink and still need to hire due to retirements.
They are also afraid of not having the sim capacity to handle a future demand surge coinciding with known retirements so they may even be "investing" in pilots to avoid getting caught later, even if they have some uncertainty.
They are also afraid of not having the sim capacity to handle a future demand surge coinciding with known retirements so they may even be "investing" in pilots to avoid getting caught later, even if they have some uncertainty.
10-09-2021, 12:12 PM
#13
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Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,944
Originally Posted by KirillTheThrill
All that sounds great, but if we have a hyperinflation event, all bets are off the table.
It would have to be massive to see a sustained impact.
Otherwise it looks to be a sustained very tight pilot marked.
10-09-2021, 12:17 PM
#14
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Joined APC: Jun 2021
Posts: 794
Originally Posted by TransWorld
Black swan events can have an impact. Anything minor will be obliterated with massive retirements this decade.
It would have to be massive to see a sustained impact.
Otherwise it looks to be a sustained very tight pilot marked.
It would have to be massive to see a sustained impact.
Otherwise it looks to be a sustained very tight pilot marked.
10-09-2021, 01:39 PM
#15
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Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
This is sorta more than a pilot market event.
this is a “how many pilots can be sustainably harvested from the regionals” event.
The industry has had 30 years of bankruptcies and terror attacks and recessions and reg changes and finally now a pandemic keeping a lid on its fundamental staffing problem.
New hires aren’t really the problem. It’s keeping them around long enough to be captains and line check airmen. Four years is really an absolute minimum… which means that a 20,000 pilot industry can provide at most 5,000 hires per year. And that is if the hiring and getting-to-1000 and upgrade machine is humming.
But more likely hiring 5000 in a year … who will be mostly captains and LCA’s will collapse the system. Still 15,000 regional pilots but not the ones they need in the right place.
this is a “how many pilots can be sustainably harvested from the regionals” event.
The industry has had 30 years of bankruptcies and terror attacks and recessions and reg changes and finally now a pandemic keeping a lid on its fundamental staffing problem.
New hires aren’t really the problem. It’s keeping them around long enough to be captains and line check airmen. Four years is really an absolute minimum… which means that a 20,000 pilot industry can provide at most 5,000 hires per year. And that is if the hiring and getting-to-1000 and upgrade machine is humming.
But more likely hiring 5000 in a year … who will be mostly captains and LCA’s will collapse the system. Still 15,000 regional pilots but not the ones they need in the right place.
10-09-2021, 03:08 PM
#16
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Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,944
Originally Posted by ZeroTT
This is sorta more than a pilot market event.
this is a “how many pilots can be sustainably harvested from the regionals” event.
The industry has had 30 years of bankruptcies and terror attacks and recessions and reg changes and finally now a pandemic keeping a lid on its fundamental staffing problem.
New hires aren’t really the problem. It’s keeping them around long enough to be captains and line check airmen. Four years is really an absolute minimum… which means that a 20,000 pilot industry can provide at most 5,000 hires per year. And that is if the hiring and getting-to-1000 and upgrade machine is humming.
But more likely hiring 5000 in a year … who will be mostly captains and LCA’s will collapse the system. Still 15,000 regional pilots but not the ones they need in the right place.
this is a “how many pilots can be sustainably harvested from the regionals” event.
The industry has had 30 years of bankruptcies and terror attacks and recessions and reg changes and finally now a pandemic keeping a lid on its fundamental staffing problem.
New hires aren’t really the problem. It’s keeping them around long enough to be captains and line check airmen. Four years is really an absolute minimum… which means that a 20,000 pilot industry can provide at most 5,000 hires per year. And that is if the hiring and getting-to-1000 and upgrade machine is humming.
But more likely hiring 5000 in a year … who will be mostly captains and LCA’s will collapse the system. Still 15,000 regional pilots but not the ones they need in the right place.
10-09-2021, 06:00 PM
#17
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Position: ERJ175
Posts: 42
I expect the bottom tier regionals to really pick up the E3 Aussie and other work visa hiring (if they could).
Seems like the perfect hiring profile for HR- not eligible for Majors and most LCCs so will likely upgrade and stay as Captain, while grateful to escape and be flying a regional jet that would have 3000hrs and 5 moon landing minimums back home.
Seems like the perfect hiring profile for HR- not eligible for Majors and most LCCs so will likely upgrade and stay as Captain, while grateful to escape and be flying a regional jet that would have 3000hrs and 5 moon landing minimums back home.
10-09-2021, 06:41 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2021
Posts: 376
Originally Posted by havoste
I expect the bottom tier regionals to really pick up the E3 Aussie and other work visa hiring (if they could).
Seems like the perfect hiring profile for HR- not eligible for Majors and most LCCs so will likely upgrade and stay as Captain, while grateful to escape and be flying a regional jet that would have 3000hrs and 5 moon landing minimums back home.
Seems like the perfect hiring profile for HR- not eligible for Majors and most LCCs so will likely upgrade and stay as Captain, while grateful to escape and be flying a regional jet that would have 3000hrs and 5 moon landing minimums back home.
10-09-2021, 10:01 PM
#19
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 113
Originally Posted by KirillTheThrill
Wells Fargo just announced they’re paying new hire employees starting pay of $21 per hour. While driving I saw an Ad for school bus drivers “pay $21-30 an hour”. I’d say inflation is working it’s magic.
Also the regionals should be aware they need to do better with pay, yet even now the “desperate” shops offer peanuts straight pay and a sucker bonus.
Also the regionals should be aware they need to do better with pay, yet even now the “desperate” shops offer peanuts straight pay and a sucker bonus.
10-10-2021, 03:06 AM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 126
What does this mean for corporate pilots trying to get hired at the majors and ULCC? Will we see a higher percentage of corporate and 135 pilots in classes since hiring them doesn't jeopardize airlines' regional feeds, or are the number of them that apply too small to make a difference?
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