Regional collapse
#21
Some great thoughts on this thread.
I too think the 1000 hour 121 for upgrade may sink a regional or two this summer. Junior manning won’t work. People will quit. Perhaps it sinks the whole business model. Maybe Delta even absorbs it’s regional group to protect the hub & spoke.
Today’s pay for regional pilots is extreme compared to just a few years ago. Triple from 2010. The regional business model was built on paying pilots $15/hour and wanting them to leave. Well? Guess what. In truth you don’t need to pay FOs more. Pay captains like mainline year two FOs. $130ish. Logical.
The first company to try and junior man upgrade is probably the most vulnerable to lasting change. Will it be OO?
I too think the 1000 hour 121 for upgrade may sink a regional or two this summer. Junior manning won’t work. People will quit. Perhaps it sinks the whole business model. Maybe Delta even absorbs it’s regional group to protect the hub & spoke.
Today’s pay for regional pilots is extreme compared to just a few years ago. Triple from 2010. The regional business model was built on paying pilots $15/hour and wanting them to leave. Well? Guess what. In truth you don’t need to pay FOs more. Pay captains like mainline year two FOs. $130ish. Logical.
The first company to try and junior man upgrade is probably the most vulnerable to lasting change. Will it be OO?
And anyway, the numbers don’t work out. Endeavor is what? 2000 pilots? Even if everything worked optimally and there was no attrition at all to other carriers (and that ain’t going to happen) the maximum theoretical throughout is only about 500 pilots a year, averaging maybe 500 hours of flying per year with an immediate upgrade. You are STILL limited by the 1000 hour to upgrade rule and you are still going to have to have CAs stick around long enough to allow their replacements to get 1000 hours.
Delta CAN’T survive driving all the other candidates to their competitors while they can survive upgrading the 717s with A220s and absorbing the feed internally.
#22
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Joined APC: Jun 2018
Posts: 445
The ‘absorbs it’s regional group’ isn’t going to happen. The OVERWHELMING majority of hires at Delta are off the street. The candidate pool of ex military and OTHER THAN DELTA CONNECTION regional pilots is VASTLY bigger than Delta Connection and DALPA (who would have to buy in) feels no special affinity for Delta CONNECTION pilots. They would rather have the company buy 220s and for them to take the flying back, it’s been their goal since bankruptcy forced concessions.
And anyway, the numbers don’t work out. Endeavor is what? 2000 pilots? Even if everything worked optimally and there was no attrition at all to other carriers (and that ain’t going to happen) the maximum theoretical throughout is only about 500 pilots a year, averaging maybe 500 hours of flying per year with an immediate upgrade. You are STILL limited by the 1000 hour to upgrade rule and you are still going to have to have CAs stick around long enough to allow their replacements to get 1000 hours.
Delta CAN’T survive driving all the other candidates to their competitors while they can survive upgrading the 717s with A220s and absorbing the feed internally.
And anyway, the numbers don’t work out. Endeavor is what? 2000 pilots? Even if everything worked optimally and there was no attrition at all to other carriers (and that ain’t going to happen) the maximum theoretical throughout is only about 500 pilots a year, averaging maybe 500 hours of flying per year with an immediate upgrade. You are STILL limited by the 1000 hour to upgrade rule and you are still going to have to have CAs stick around long enough to allow their replacements to get 1000 hours.
Delta CAN’T survive driving all the other candidates to their competitors while they can survive upgrading the 717s with A220s and absorbing the feed internally.
The people being hired with no 121 time will still have to get their 1000 to upgrade and there’s no question of whether or not you’ll have captains to do it. You’ll have the first captain pay scale getting less than a wb FO, but people will bid it because their qol and pay will still be better than where they’re at. Not to mention some people just need that 4th stripe to feel validated. Just my opinion.
#23
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Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,218
A legacy bringing RJ flying in house doesn’t necessarily mean that the current pilots go with the deal. Couldn’t they just transfer the aircraft that they own to the legacy side and hire off the street to staff them? If the various regionals fail to staff their contractual obligations, I’d imagine that those contracts would be easy to void and the transfer wouldn’t be that difficult.
#24
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Joined APC: Jun 2018
Posts: 445
A legacy bringing RJ flying in house doesn’t necessarily mean that the current pilots go with the deal. Couldn’t they just transfer the aircraft that they own to the legacy side and hire off the street to staff them? If the various regionals fail to staff their contractual obligations, I’d imagine that those contracts would be easy to void and the transfer wouldn’t be that difficult.
#25
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Joined APC: Jun 2021
Posts: 794
A legacy bringing RJ flying in house doesn’t necessarily mean that the current pilots go with the deal. Couldn’t they just transfer the aircraft that they own to the legacy side and hire off the street to staff them? If the various regionals fail to staff their contractual obligations, I’d imagine that those contracts would be easy to void and the transfer wouldn’t be that difficult.
We’d be more likely to buy out someone than to start bringing RJ’s in house, but buying out a SkyWest or Republic seems very unlikely as well.
#27
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Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,218
We’re not going to able to keep up with hiring and training pilots as is. That’s a pipe dream to think we’re going to hire and train RJ pilots to fly RJ’s, all done in house. Just to have those instructors and simulators would take years.
We’d be more likely to buy out someone than to start bringing RJ’s in house, but buying out a SkyWest or Republic seems very unlikely as well.
We’d be more likely to buy out someone than to start bringing RJ’s in house, but buying out a SkyWest or Republic seems very unlikely as well.
#29
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Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 281
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