After however many years of high inflation and energy prices we're gonna end up with, having this happen would cause this to become a career thats right up there with fast food. The new price levels of everyday items are staying. Imagine going back from 100/h to 50/h, we'd be back to the days of pilots qualifying for food stamps.

 

The article makes it sound as if it's good enough if the number of new pilots each year is equal to the airlines' requirements. Surely that's not even remotely true. Obtaining a certificate is one thing. Being suitable for a job as an airline (or other professional) pilot another.

 

It amazes me how it took a shortage of pilots to finally bring the pay up to what it is now at regionals. They started raising pay, albeit slowly, around 2014/2015, and gradually stepped it up since then. Then they made the huge leap to the current rates this year alone. I wanted to feel bad for regional management, but I don’t. They created this problem. I have no sympathy because they got themselves into this position with people leaving in droves to go to the majors due to years and years of low pay. This shortage has shown that regionals really did not want to pay pilots what they’re worth. They kept putting off pay hikes for as long as they could, until things got so bad with staffing that they had to slingshot the pay rates up to where they are currently. But even with the current rates it still may be too late for some places. I also don’t believe they will bring the pay back to 50/hour. There’s too much risk in that. The only way that could work is if we hit another hard recession. Then they will feel emboldened to do so, and unfortunately pilots will be forced to ‘take it up the rear again.’ But besides a recession, if the pilot market is still strong in 2024, or heck, even if they do manage to catch up with staffing levels, I can’t see them reducing the rates back to what they were pre-2022. It’s just bad business strategy.

 

In a nutshell.

 

Incorrect. They were still demanding and getting concessionary contracts right up through 2015.
in late 2016 they started with QOL improvements like hotels in base, and hotels for commuters, and softening of some of the more harsh treatment.
Bonus pay showed up later around 2017 in most cases.

You can literally pull your CBA and read the LOA's one at a time adding back QOL measures, then bonus programs, and finally actual pay raises.

In general, I agree with the rest of your post.

The pilot shortage was entirely caused by management chipping away at wages, working conditions, benefits & retirement over several decades until new FO's qualified for food stamps and other public assistance programs for several years.
As the total compensation reduced each year, the total time experience level of the available job candidates went lower and lower as well. What originally took around 4500 hours experience with an ATP eventually degraded to - in late 2007 - having an ink wet commercial ticket. Even then, the managements continued demanding concessions right up through 2015.
They were told by the unions that a retirement bubble was less than 5-6 years away and that if they could barely fill seats now, what were they going to do when the majors start sucking up all their pilots. The few union leaders at several regionals that fought with management over their own shortsightedness were targeted and silenced in the same ways management always silenced union leaders they didn't like. The record at our airline was a union guy getting fired 7 times for stupid BS they invented.

Anyway, the shortage was created by management making the job not worth having anymore to the point that they could only attract ink wet commercials. They like to blame the ATP rule, and from 2013 to 2015 that may have played a small role. As new guys hit the start of the change, they had to continue building experience to get the ATP, (which is still less than what it historically took to get the job). Once they hit the ATP minimums, the supply chain was back in normal operation and the ATP rule wasn't a factor in the shortage anymore. The number of new pilots entering training for the profession was the limiting factor; and that was driven down by management themselves.

Make no mistake, all this rubbish about the ATP rule (it's not a 1500 hour rule) causing a shortage, is lies and misdirection. Every CEO of every regional should be fired by their BOD for the inept mismanagement they all participated in. They were told by the union leaders that this would be the result. They didn't care. They still don't. They'll be happy to whipsaw everybody again once the supply exceeds the demand again. You've got less than 4 years for that now, with a recession it will be sooner.

 

You only get what you negotiate. Kind of hard to get what you’re worth if you vote yes to the first offer. Story of the last 10-20 years at the regionals

 

Comair held the line. Eagle did for a while too. The problem is that there is always a regional willing to undercut others.

 

*cough* PSA *cough*

 

Pay started to flip in 2015 with the Edv Retention bonus. It went up multiple times from 30k/2 years to 80k/4.

 

If I can recall, the endeavor big retention bonus showed up around 2016 2017