Regional pay in the future
04-02-2024 | 06:37 PM
#11
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Well said by [MENTION=103365]AerChungus[/MENTION] AerChungus
I would wager regionals will not only revert pay to pre-COVID rates but contracts will become the norm.
The growing pool of 1500-2000+ hour applicants is being underestimated and the desire to take the first FO spot, even with a contract or lower pay, is going to be irresistible.
I would wager regionals will not only revert pay to pre-COVID rates but contracts will become the norm.
The growing pool of 1500-2000+ hour applicants is being underestimated and the desire to take the first FO spot, even with a contract or lower pay, is going to be irresistible.
04-04-2024 | 11:23 AM
#12
Prime Minister/Moderator
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
04-04-2024 | 04:11 PM
#13
Banned
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04-04-2024 | 05:45 PM
#14
Disinterested Third Party
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The wages for regionals were not minimum wage. The wages were sub-poverty.
The wages will not regress to former times.
The wages will also not keep up with inflation and escalating costs of living, until again incentives are required.
The incentives that garnished the wage increases among the regionals are fading and will soon be gone.
There will be less movement, more stagnation. Incentives to negotiate new contracts, better contracts, and improvements in contracts wash away with the leverage of the pilot market as the post-covid bubble wanes. Here we are.
Expect more to stay longer with their regionals, increasing in seniority.
There won't be a return to 250 hour copilots. Or 12/hr copilots.
As the industry grinds slowly forward, lacking incentive to keep up, the regionals will drag their feet, as they always have, so rather than regress, don't expect significant fugure gains. What's good now, won't be tomorrow. It's far better than it once was, and it wont' go back, but don't look for it to move forward at the industry pace, either.
The wages will not regress to former times.
The wages will also not keep up with inflation and escalating costs of living, until again incentives are required.
The incentives that garnished the wage increases among the regionals are fading and will soon be gone.
There will be less movement, more stagnation. Incentives to negotiate new contracts, better contracts, and improvements in contracts wash away with the leverage of the pilot market as the post-covid bubble wanes. Here we are.
Expect more to stay longer with their regionals, increasing in seniority.
There won't be a return to 250 hour copilots. Or 12/hr copilots.
As the industry grinds slowly forward, lacking incentive to keep up, the regionals will drag their feet, as they always have, so rather than regress, don't expect significant fugure gains. What's good now, won't be tomorrow. It's far better than it once was, and it wont' go back, but don't look for it to move forward at the industry pace, either.
04-04-2024 | 09:44 PM
#15
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Joined: Apr 2022
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From: DL320A
Concur. Former RJ guy opinion: Management is not your friend. The company isn't a family. Loyalty will not be rewarded. Demographcs rule all and the bandwagon has been rolling for a while now.
Fortunately things are okay now, better than they were pay wise anyway. I wouldn't spend planning to get raises concurrent with inflation.
Fortunately things are okay now, better than they were pay wise anyway. I wouldn't spend planning to get raises concurrent with inflation.
04-04-2024 | 11:42 PM
#16
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From: FO Obvious
So next time there is a downturn, I would expect the legacies to start the whipsaw again as we hit the low point of the cycle in this industry. We saw it happen most recently with CommuteAir and ExpressJet and I wouldn't be surprised to see American decline to renew their pay raises with their WOs, for United to try to whipsaw Mesa, CommuteAir, and GoJet against each other, and for Delta to maybe even try to see if they can get Republic and Skywest to butt heads. All the while, a lot of the "borrowed" flying that mainlines are doing in house, e.g. SLC-STL, will get farmed back out to the 175s as scope clauses allow. Why? Because as others said, they will pay regional pilots as little as they can. And when the supply and demand curve is reversed, they will look to drive costs down all over again. This is the whole reason they kept the regionals afloat for the past 3 years, so that they could wait until the hiring environment stabilized and then bring things back to the status quo. It was cheaper than letting them fail and permanently have mainline do the flying in-house. It's the very definition of the business model; do mainline flying for the same revenue at a lower operating expense.
At least that's what's written on my tin foil hat
At least that's what's written on my tin foil hat
Like any other market, supply and demand will see-saw for a bit. Now that word has spread that 1,000-1,500 hours and a pulse won’t get a person a regional class date, and especially if wages go backwards, I believe the numbers of student pilot certificate issuances will drop. Every other thread on Reddit is “1500hrs when hired?!?!?” Eventually the majors will resume hiring (we are looking at you Boeing!!!), and the regionals will get caught with their pants down, again.
04-05-2024 | 02:45 AM
#17
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I’m pretty sure the majors have run up against the limits of their scope clauses, hence some of the flying going back to respective mainlines. Unless management can somehow increase utilization (while remaining in the scope clause), I don’t see regionals getting more flying.
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On the other hand, everyone is killing the 50 seat airframes without any replacement.
And although the regionals wouldn't turn down cheaper pilots, what they really need is reliable pilots. I expect lower compensation will arrive primarily in the form of new hire contracts requiring ~1000 TPIC before resignation.
04-05-2024 | 04:47 AM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2020
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Aircraft deliveries are obviously slowing this hiring wave down. As a result hiring will pace expected deliveries until the legacies get to the size that they envision in their master plan and the big wave will be over. When that happens, hiring will revert to more traditional levels to replace attrition, or let attrition shrink to match demand. Attrition will also slow significantly at the regionals. At that point the legacies will start lowballing their regionals when contracts near the end to fly for lower cost or lose the flying, and the race to the bottom comes back. I don't see pay going back to previous levels, but I can see it taking a significant hit or at the very least let inflation do the work. This recent hiring environment is a once in a lifetime wave and is not anywhere close to normal. The whipsaw will return.
04-05-2024 | 05:17 AM
#19
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Aircraft deliveries are obviously slowing this hiring wave down. As a result hiring will pace expected deliveries until the legacies get to the size that they envision in their master plan and the big wave will be over. When that happens, hiring will revert to more traditional levels to replace attrition, or let attrition shrink to match demand. Attrition will also slow significantly at the regionals. At that point the legacies will start lowballing their regionals when contracts near the end to fly for lower cost or lose the flying, and the race to the bottom comes back. I don't see pay going back to previous levels, but I can see it taking a significant hit or at the very least let inflation do the work. This recent hiring environment is a once in a lifetime wave and is not anywhere close to normal. The whipsaw will return.
Blaming it on Boeing takes the blame off management in the eyes of shareholders.
Originally Posted by QRH Bingo
Those companies which have not made their raises permanent will likely roll them back when able. Companies with rates as a permanent fixture in their contract will see pay stagnate when negotiations come back around as the companies refuse to renegotiate higher rates. Negotiations will drag on without a new contract or higher pay as companies dig in.
04-05-2024 | 10:40 AM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
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Boeing's foibles and follies are a convenient scape goat for mainline management. With all the retirements, mainline was/is still well short Captains before taking new aircraft deliveries into consideration. Hasn't UAL been running an "accelerated upgrade" program for the better part of a year, if not more?
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