Jessemh

Upgrade time: at AE

These are just basic facts about what my seniority number has done. and I'm not saying this is definitely what is going to happen, because you never know.

Since i was hired in Jan 07...

The first 6 months i was at eagle, they hired 200 pilots (pilots on the seniority list)

My seniority number when i started in January was 2800 and in June i was 2600. (6 month span)

I am estimating that 500 pilots should be hired in 2007.
-200 in the first 6 months of '07. has already been confirmed
-300 pilots between June and Dec. Because the pick your base option kicked up hiring this is my estimate


As of late, the most junior captains seniority number is approximately 1500

with my current seniority number of 2400 and at the estimated current hire rate of 500 pilots per year, mathematically that means I should hold captain in 2 years at the current rate of hire because there are just as many pilots leaving as there are coming in.

Thus a 3 year upgrade time from Date of hire.

*This is if the current rate of hire stays the same. Every one knows that the airline industry changes over time and the story with eagle, who knows what will happen with hiring in APR 2008 when all the Flow Backs are out.



questions / additions?

texaspilot76

Dream on. The old coots aren't going anywhere. They don't want to leave. I'd suggest going somewhere else so you can upgrade sooner, unless you enjoying being a career FO.

Jessemh

I do plan on leaving, not planning on staying at AE for much longer than another 2 years as i have an in at a major airline and don't need pic time.

But after the flowbies are out in apr 08 you are saying that the inflow of pilots is going to come to a stop?

JoeyMeatballs

hey, maybe you should look up the word, 'ENTITLEMENT", heres an article to get you started.........



Do 20-somethings expect the world on a silver platter?

By LISA OSBURN
BIRMINGHAM, ALA. — Sporting their “princess” T-shirts and $100
sneakers, members of Generation Y grew up hearing they could conquer
the world.

Many of their parents started them on that journey with laptop
computers, vehicles, cell phones, high-speed Internet connections and
MP3 players.

But the next step of life — entering the workforce — can be a tricky
one for the babies of the 1980s and ‘90s, career experts say.

“They come in with very high expectations,” said Tim Irwin, a corporate
psychologist and author. “Their parents have told them from the moment
they were born that they were special. These Gen Y’ers believe it. The
thought of having to pay dues for a long time to get into a corner
office is kind of jarring to them.”

That sense of entitlement needs to be left at home, said Nicholas
Aretakis, a career coach specializing in college students, recent grads
and twentysomethings. He wrote No More Ramen: The 20-something’s Real
World Survival Guide.

“They don’t like having normal and meetings. They get frustrated with
getting the less glamorous assignments and more menial tasks," he said.
"Most of them are really surprised that you don't get much vacation
time."

That attitude has led some managers to start looking elsewhere. Gregory
Jones, CEO of Hubbard Systems, in Inverness, Ala., hires college
graduates from the U.S. and from India for his software development
company.

The differences between the two groups concern him.

"The students here definitely do not have the drive," Jones said. "They
have never been held to a standard. When they enter the work force,
there is surprise that deadlines must be met. They think we are going
to be an extended family. We are not. That is a very hard issue for
them to get over."

Their co-workers from India are another story, he said.

"There is a great hunger from Indian programmers," he said.

"There is a very strong desire to do well. They are very competitive."

Jones said he blames parents and a flawed educational system for
producing workers without a sense of responsibility, accountability or
commitment.

"Companies who can, like ours, will choose not to manage them and bring
in people from another country," he said. "I feel sorry for the retail
end of the country because they have to hire them."


'All about me'

Bridgett Jones Short, owner of Jucos, a beauty salon in Inverness,
falls into that category. She has been in the business 24 years and has
concerns about younger employees.

"This generation is all about 'me.' Money is not a huge problem because
it seems like parents subsidize their income," Short said. "They don't
feel like they have to work very hard. They think the grass is always
greener. It is not about dedication. If they were to get off at 6, they
get off at 6."

Parents have the ability to change that, Short said. She uses Jordan
Corley, a 20-year-old stylist, as an example of what happens when the
talent of Gen Y combines with good attitude and good upbringing.

"Jordan is the exception. She is very accommodating. She goes the extra
mile, and she has an excellent work ethic," Short said.

Corley said she is focused on her goal of starting her own business.

"Eventually I want to own my own salon," she said. "I am staying in one
place for the experience. I want to learn the business."

That's the catch of this generation. They can be extremely bright with
self-confidence and energy, said Irwin, who wrote Run With the Bulls
Without Getting Trampled.

Technology is like breathing to them, he said.

"I think they are going to be one of the most creative and productive
generations in history," Irwin said. "I am predicting great things, and
smart companies are going to be hiring the best of them."

Young workers will stay at a company if they are getting the challenges
and opportunities for growth. That is why Anthony Oni, a 27-year-old
community development specialist for Alabama Power Co., said he has had
one job since college.

But he has watched other friends switch from job to job.

"They want to build multiple experiences to move forward. They think a
broad base is important," Oni said. "Another reason they leave is
lifestyle. I have a couple of friends who moved to different places
because the city offered a different lifestyle."

His friend Brandon Wilson, 27, is on his fourth job since graduation.
He now works at O2 Ideas, a Birmingham public relations and advertising
agency.

"For the 76 million or so Gen Y'ers in the world, we are trying to find
our place in the business community. Sometimes it doesn't always happen
the first time," he said. "Young people are graduating college and
exploring and finding their niche in a community and taking advantage
of great opportunities. This may be confused with impatience."


Opportunities to advance

Jay Carr, 27, knows people his age are not always perceived as
dedicated and self-motivated. But the Alabama Power Co. engineer
believes they do have the opportunity to advance faster than previous
generations because technology allows them to process a job more
quickly. They just need to be aware that everybody graduating from
college with them will have the same resources, he said.

"I definitely think parents need to be positive and encouraging because
there is so much opportunity out there," he said. "But it still comes
down to hard work and perseverance."


Brought to you by the HoustonChronicle.com

Jessemh

sure, everyone is entitled to work. To continue your career in a successful manner, or to stay where you are is a choice everyone makes on their own.

but regardless of flow backs, just taking a look at the pilots as a whole... what do you think is going to happen in the next year with hiring.

Killer51883

jesse when were you hired? i might have been in your class. as much as flow backs leaving and the guys with aa numbers it doesnt matter. Its not all about upgrade time. What good is upgrade time when you are stuck working 95 plus hours a month and getting junior manned cause NO ONE IS GOING THERE to allow you to work. Despite the 700 pilots they hired the net was some where like 50. You might actually upgrade in 3-4 years but youll be stuck working like a dog while everyone else is at least enjoying where they are.

Pilotpip

Why would any of those senior guys who are making close to six figures working sweet schedules flow up to AA to sit reserve and make significantly less than they are now?

If I was 50ish, had a wife and 2.5 kids I sure as hell wouldn't be going anywhere. You can keep your big shiny jet at that point.

ryane946

Check out this thread:
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/sh...ad.php?t=11751

I am predicting about 3 year upgrades for those hired January 2006 or after.

Does anyone know what the current most junior captain DOH is???

JoeyMeatballs

1986................................

XJPILOT1

SAAB-

That sounds like most of the people on this forum!!