Eagle drops mins again.....600/100
10-11-2007 | 08:08 AM
#31
La Familia Delta
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,467
Likes: 0
From: B-717 FO / C-17 AC
why do they want to shrink the AE fleet? Seems like an emerging business model these days is a focus on international flying to produce revenue on the big boys side of the house, while the regional fleet takes care of business domestically via more efficient operating costs (fuel and labor) and more daily departures.
10-11-2007 | 08:53 AM
#32
Banned
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,929
Likes: 0
From: A-320
Some numbers for everyone to eat up from our 9-29-07 Seniority list:
242 AA flowbacks left
395 AE Flowthroughs with seniority #s at AA
Junior CA is 4/3/00 DOH
1195 FOs behind the junior CA on our list total
293 FOs between junior CA and 1/1/2004 DOH
231 FOs with 2004 DOHs
107 FOs with 2005 DOH
218 FOs with 2006 DOH
347 FOs with 2007 DOH
Looking at the numbers, if all flowbacks were to leave tomorrow then the junior CA slot would be very close to the 1/1/04 DOH. There are so many variables and uncertainties. Among them:
-Future of Saab fleet is very shaky. Apparently the company will start parking Saabs in early 2008. This will have a very negative effect on reducing the upgrade time.
-Future of AA recalls. Who knows how quickly they will be recalled. Negotiations could reduce the number of pilots needed at AA which would slow the recalls. Terrorism, shrinkage, etc would all have a bad effect on recalls. At the current rate AA flowbacks at AE will be called by late 2008/early 2009.
-Flowthrough agreements. Negotiatons are dragging on currently to determine what will happen to the AE CAs who do have an AA seniority number. Its anyones wildest guess as to what/when/if anything will happen. My personal wild guess says they will be recalled after all the current AA/TWA furloughees, so sometime around early 2009 AE CAs will start to go to AA barring any bad news.
-AE Fleet. Our Saabs are probably going to go away in 2008, our ATRs are ancient and need to be replaced, the 37/44 seat ERJs are wasting money, the 50seat RJ market is dead. That leaves us with 25 CRJ-700s that are in our fleet and probably wont be going away anytime soon. But they break down daily.
My analysis? Come to AE if youre a gambling man (or lady) but if you cant afford to sit as an FO at $40k for 6+yrs then think very carefully about your career path. I do think something will be worked out in terms of a flowthrough agreement to AA, but even if that goes through it will take a long time to get there from AE. I forsee the AE fleet shrinking a lot in the next 5 years. Saabs, ERJ135/140s will be gone. ATRs will probably be replaced with new ATRs, but not much growth. 50 seaters will stay for now, 70 seaters will stay. We might get to exercise the options for 25 more CRJs, but thats way in the future. I think mgmt will make AA pilots give up scope to 100 seaters in turn for a big pay raise. If this happens, watch for 100 seaters at AE to replace the retiring MD80s at AA. Sad it would be, but its not my decision.
242 AA flowbacks left
395 AE Flowthroughs with seniority #s at AA
Junior CA is 4/3/00 DOH
1195 FOs behind the junior CA on our list total
293 FOs between junior CA and 1/1/2004 DOH
231 FOs with 2004 DOHs
107 FOs with 2005 DOH
218 FOs with 2006 DOH
347 FOs with 2007 DOH
Looking at the numbers, if all flowbacks were to leave tomorrow then the junior CA slot would be very close to the 1/1/04 DOH. There are so many variables and uncertainties. Among them:
-Future of Saab fleet is very shaky. Apparently the company will start parking Saabs in early 2008. This will have a very negative effect on reducing the upgrade time.
-Future of AA recalls. Who knows how quickly they will be recalled. Negotiations could reduce the number of pilots needed at AA which would slow the recalls. Terrorism, shrinkage, etc would all have a bad effect on recalls. At the current rate AA flowbacks at AE will be called by late 2008/early 2009.
-Flowthrough agreements. Negotiatons are dragging on currently to determine what will happen to the AE CAs who do have an AA seniority number. Its anyones wildest guess as to what/when/if anything will happen. My personal wild guess says they will be recalled after all the current AA/TWA furloughees, so sometime around early 2009 AE CAs will start to go to AA barring any bad news.
-AE Fleet. Our Saabs are probably going to go away in 2008, our ATRs are ancient and need to be replaced, the 37/44 seat ERJs are wasting money, the 50seat RJ market is dead. That leaves us with 25 CRJ-700s that are in our fleet and probably wont be going away anytime soon. But they break down daily.
My analysis? Come to AE if youre a gambling man (or lady) but if you cant afford to sit as an FO at $40k for 6+yrs then think very carefully about your career path. I do think something will be worked out in terms of a flowthrough agreement to AA, but even if that goes through it will take a long time to get there from AE. I forsee the AE fleet shrinking a lot in the next 5 years. Saabs, ERJ135/140s will be gone. ATRs will probably be replaced with new ATRs, but not much growth. 50 seaters will stay for now, 70 seaters will stay. We might get to exercise the options for 25 more CRJs, but thats way in the future. I think mgmt will make AA pilots give up scope to 100 seaters in turn for a big pay raise. If this happens, watch for 100 seaters at AE to replace the retiring MD80s at AA. Sad it would be, but its not my decision.
lets not get carried away there BOYD, the 50 seat market is not dead, not as profitable as it was when oil was $35 a barrel, but then again would it really matter if they just raised ticket prices accordingly?
EVERY OTHER INDUSTRY INCREASES THEIR PRICES WHEN OIL GOES UP, YET THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY WHICH IS SO OIL DEPENDENT HARDLY EVER DOES
10-11-2007 | 09:34 AM
#34
SDQ Base Chief
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,056
Likes: 34
From: 320 CA
why do they want to shrink the AE fleet? Seems like an emerging business model these days is a focus on international flying to produce revenue on the big boys side of the house, while the regional fleet takes care of business domestically via more efficient operating costs (fuel and labor) and more daily departures.
If there are 5 daily flights going from JFK-LAX and each flight has 200 seats available then thats 1000 available seats to buy for customers. Say there are 900 pax buying those tickets. It would make more sense to take away 1 flight making a total of 800 available seats and raising the price. You will have 100 people scrambling for a ticket since there isnt a glut of empty seats now, they will be willing to pay more.
10-12-2007 | 06:58 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 231
Likes: 0
Just to update you guys. Eagle and AA management has countered the the AE/AA proposal regarding flowthrough/flowback proposal. The counter proposal appears to be acceptable to Alpa and APA. The proposal is in the hands of the union's lawyers. There is no information as of yet to what the deal is. Could be a good time to get on but who knows.
10-12-2007 | 08:23 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 104
Likes: 0
Hey Saab I just saw this from 1 hour ago - Maybe others will follow suit.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - AMR Corp (AMR.N: Quote, Profile , Research), parent of American Airlines, said on Friday it raised domestic round-trip fares by $10 to offset soaring fuel prices.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - AMR Corp (AMR.N: Quote, Profile , Research), parent of American Airlines, said on Friday it raised domestic round-trip fares by $10 to offset soaring fuel prices.
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