Skyhifan,

Can you elaborate on the reasons why you are not a fan of this industry? I have an idea, but would just like to hear your reasons.

Thanks.

The zero-to-hero thing goes back about ten years. Ever heard of ATA? You might not have if you're young.

Overall, probably positive outlook but not quit as hot as 2006-2007 (assuming no catastrophes).

But there are really many other things to consider before you decide to jump in. The question of industry timing is a total crapshoot. Do all you can to get educated and make informed decisions, but even then there are no guarantees. Look at two pilots who got hired 20 years ago...

Pilot A: Got hired at an up-and-coming major airline. The future's so bright he's gotta wear shades!

Pilot B: Hired at an all-cargo operator, plans on getting some experience and moving on to pax airlines. He would prefer to have Pilot B's job.

Where are our heroes today?

Pilot A: Reserve FO on a big regional jet in PHL.
Pilot B: Works 7 days/month, makes $300K+

These are real-world examples...

My ultimate goal, if I do decide to become a commercial pilot, would be to fly cargo (i.e. Fed-X or UPS). I know those places have alot of competition for pilot slots, but I am thinking 10 yrs down the road. To be honest, the reason I believe that the industry has a positive outlook (barring a major catastrophe) is because I think that major carriers are going to keep moving many flights to the regional airlines and focus more on long leg trips and international travel. Also, I believe that technology is going to allow scientists to create an alternate type of fuel that is going to cut airline costs. Do I think the industry is ever going to get back to paying their pilots a king's ransom, absolutely not, but I do think that hourly pay will increase somewhat. I mean to be frankly honest with you, I would be happy making anywhere from 80k-150k working only 15 days a month. With that time off, you can open up a business on the side, or do a side job.

Let me know what you think.

There certainly were examples before the last couple years, but I wouldn't have called them commonplace or an epidemic like some of the places out there now. I remember when "quick upgrade" meant you only had to fly sideways for a couple years.

Well, do it because you love to fly. Don't do it for any specific working conditions. IF the airline industry is anything, it's volatile, and I'm not sure I would have gone in for any specific reason other than loving to fly. The way I would look at it would always be worst case scenario. "Would I continue flying if, for the rest of my from, say on, flying because similar to a normal job, where you show up to work, put in your 10 hours a day, and do that 5-6 days a week? And got paid a reasonable salary of, say, $75k for the rest of my life?" If you're ok with that, then you know you love flying for flying, and are at least happy with an office with a way better view. Is it going to get that bad? Not foreseeably, and it would mean a huge step down from the current situation, but that's not an unbearable situation, and if you love to fly, then it'll probably be worth it.

Just so you know, that was a pretty extreme example, so please nobody jump down my throat for it!

I have been on both sides.... I'll take the less than perfect flying job over some BS office job any day of the week on twice on sundays.

I'll second that. If any of you ever held an office job either in the military or as a civilian, and everytime an aircraft flew by you looked up, then you know what HercDriver is talking about. It doesn't matter even if the desk job pays lot more with impressive titles and has a great office furniture with the window view, if you love to fly, you will not be at peace with yourself until you get back in the air even if you have to fly a regional jet or a turboprop or for that matter any aircraft.

I'm a much happier person since I left my better paying desk job. That doesn't mean I want to work my whole career for peanuts with crappy working conditions. People seem to equate job satisfaction with accepting crappy pay.

Desk jobs do suck. I have one right now. I want to definitely fly, but my concern is this: I invest alot of money into flight training, then I finish training and begin to flight instruct. After a few months flight instructing, I am ready to enter the industry. Suddenly, the airlines stop hiring and Im SOL. Is this a legitimate concern, or am I just being pesimistic?

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Welcome to this screwed up industry. I would recommend training on your own time while in your present job. Don't jump ship until you have your CFI. If the market looks good for the next year, get a teaching job to gain some experience full time and move on in a year. If it doesn't look so rosy, stay put, get a part time gig and wait it out.

It is a legitimate concern. Before this hiring frenzy this year, many people had to flight instruct for several years or more before they could accumulate enough hours even to apply to regionals. Back then, regionals required 1000 to 1500 hours just to apply. If you are just starting out from scratch meaning you have 0 hours as of now, then you should just start taking flying lessons now on weekends to see if you really like to fly. Get your medical first so you do not wind up wasting a lot of money just to find out you cannot get 1st class medical. Keep your good paying day job and save as much as you can because you are going to need it.

If you find out you have a knack for flying, then go after getting your commercial and CFI part time and like I said keep saving. I think the hiring trend will continue for a few years but this is just an educated guess based on current aviation industry health. You will find airline business is a roler coaster ride, and you can never predict what future will bring with any kind of accuracy.

Bro, its a legitamte concern but not everything is going to be handed to you. Hell I could get furloughed tomorow and be out on the street with 2,500hrs and more than 1,500 hrs of 121 time, but thats life and this industry especially, is up and down.

I would rather have the time and Qualifications when the airlines are not hiring than wishing I did when the airlines were hiring.......................

Not likely, but if that happens, come on over to Mesaba and start out as a
Saab CA with CA pay. Upgrade time dropped off from 3 years to 6 months to 3 months and now down to 0 months. Saab, Glad to see your avatar back. I like it. Shows you have a great sense of humor.

hah thanks, yeah if I was furloughed tomorow, MESABA is where I would try to go...........

Go to Mesaba SAABaroowski ??? They would make a refined gentlemen out of you. That would be boring.

"After a few months flight instructing, I am ready to enter the industry. Suddenly, the airlines stop hiring and Im SOL. Is this a legitimate concern, or am I just being pesimistic?"

You won't be SOL. As someone mentioned, it used to be a lot harder to get an airline job. You had to do a timebuilding job, like instructing, up to the 1000 to 1500 hour mark, and then get a job flying freight in small twins to build up multi time. Worst case scenario, things will ebb back towards that direction but the jobs will still be there.

I spent a year doing Grand Canyon tours and then six months flying freight in light twins before I had a shot at an "airline" type job.

Thanks for sharing your story. I too flew Grand Canyon tours for 7 months 7 years ago.

So, are you going to be a professional pilot or just do what it takes to end up at a regional. Not so long ago, you need close to or more than ATP mins to get a job. If the pendulum swings back that way are you going to bail cause you didn't get there 6-12 months after you started training?:rolleyes: You either want it or you don't. I understand 'wanting' to be there but if you are that worried about the short term you may want to re-evaluate. You may not ever make it to a major...should you try? hell yeah. It took me 14 years and 1 month from my first flight lesson to UPS ground school. You may fair better or worse, but either way you need to be realistic about the task you put before you.

Slice,

Thanks for your insight. I want to be a professional pilot. I also understand that I may never make it to major. As I stated above, that is a goal of mine right now. However, if I am a CA at a regional with seniority, have a family, and am making good money in the future my goal might change. I have always wanted to be pilot since I was young. However, this is a huge decision for me financially. While I am not putting forth the capital, I am responsible for paying it back in due time (to my parents :)). I will give you an idea of my decision making process:
1. If I could predict the future, and the future was that I would get my ratings and have to instruct for five years before I was able to get to the regionals, then it would not make financial sense to me to become a pilot. If this was the case, then I would get my private and instrument and fly for fun.
2. If I was able to get my ratings, flight instruct for a yr or two, and then move onto the regionals, then yes that would make sense.

Right now I am 24yrs old, if I wasnt flying at a regional by 27yrs old then I would not be a happy camper.

I just want to put myself in the industry ASAP so I can gain seniority. Once I am in, then I can decide if I ever want to go to major.

Do you understand where I am coming from?

Sounds like you are just into doing what it takes to get to a regional. Remember you are talking to many people who spent a lot more than 3 years before jets became a glimmer in their eyes. It wasn't long ago when you would take at least a year to get through 250 hours followed by 3-5 years of "time building" before you could get a 135 job to get some turbine experience before you could get that coveted "commuter" job. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad our services are in demand, just remember your audience. There is little sympathy for perceived SJS sufferers around here because they are seen as a threat to the difficult work that needs to be done to regain some of the quality we have lost in this career.

Bottom line, this career is not for those who aren't willing to sacrifice a lot for a shot at the big leagues. If you want stability, get a desk job. There is a reason not everyone wants to be a pilot.

I do understand where you're coming from. And the financial aspect is why I offered up a lower cost alternative to ATP...by no means the only lower cost choice. However, answer number 1 worries me. Would you have to CFI for 5 years? Probably not. But what about a combo of CFI, to flying checks to flying a small twin Part 135? These are sacrifices that many before you have taken on. I remember flying a 172 and dying to fly a twin. Then flying a twin and dying to fly a turboprop, then a jet, etc. I KNEW it wasn't going to happen quickly but still took the plunge because I knew what I wanted to do and was willing to do what it took for as long as it took(no wife, no kids). Again, what are you going to do if the fast track doesn't happen for you? You mentioned financial sense. There is no financial sense to becoming a pilot these days. You are essentially buying a ~$50K lottery ticket. So I ask you this...Do you feel lucky punk? Well do ya?:cool:

The question "Do you feel lucky punk" is 100% accurate. That is why I am taking time making this decision. I dont want to be "unlucky". Just to let you know, before looking into ATP, I looked into local flight schools here in Chicago. ATP has a similar cost, if not better, than most of the schools here. Also, ATP's Commercial Pilot Program is almost all ME. I would have close to 200 ME hours after I finished their program. Also, I would have regional jet training. These local flight schools provided me with quotes with ME time, but they didnt even come close to the amount of time I would get at ATP for the cost. I know ATP is a flight academy, but their program is cost effective and worth it compared to the cost and training programs at local schools where I live.

I would be a pilot because I enjoy it, not for the money. However, I would like to make decent money doing it. It would also provide me with time to open a small business (another future goal). I guess the question I have to ask myself is: If I didnt become a pilot, would I still be able to enjoy my life? And is being a pilot something that I cant live without?

I understand that the aviation industry is unpredictable, but I want to make sure and put the odds in my favor. I am not afraid of taking a risk, but I want to make sure it is a calculated risk.

There are alot things that I need to take into consideration.

See what I am saying?

Hi!

U don't have to worry about being a CFI now.

If you go full bore and flight train full time, you should have your Commercial/Inst in 3 mos, and then you're hired at a regional. U can skip the CFI part.

Actually, the regionals are hiring guys WITHOUT their commercial, but with the time and qualificiations required (as low as 180 Total Time). When they pass their initial sim check, the FAA awards them their commercial.

Mesa suks, but they do have a program where they pay you back for your flight training costs, which is good if you have no money.

If you have money, or can get a loan, DON'T go to Mesa.

Good luck!

cliff
ABQ
PS-I had my ATP and about 2000 Total Time/750 MEJet, and Comair sent me a letter stating I didn't meet their minimum qualifications (1983?). I still have the letter.

Don't forget that there are still SJS sufferers through out the seniority scales. People who want to fly at majors because of the heavy iron still suffer from SJS, you might just call it SHJS (heavy!). Don't take that the wrong way!

There's nothing wrong with getting into aviation and wanting to make an excellent wage, and there's certainly NOTHING wrong with wanting to get into aviation because of the real potential of a comfortable living wage (after some dues-paying, of course!), but just make sure that if these things don't happen to your fullest dreams, you aren't completely disappointed. Judging from your answers, however, it seems like you're at least open to these possibilities.

You know, the most fun I ever had while flying was in a 172..............take your time, the airlines will always be here

I think most folks who jump up to major airlines have shiny-money syndrome, not shiny-jet syndrome. SJS is vastly more prevelant in 20-somethings who have no mortgage, or kids to put through college. Most RJ captains that I know are very hesitant about going to a major unless it's one of the big three.

LOL....the most fun I ever had flying was landing C-130's on 2 lane highways..... :)

Whats the big 3?

FedEx, UPS, SWA,

or


CAL, DAL, SWA,????????????????????

FDX, UPS, SWA...based on pay.

Duh!
.........

What do you expect from a guy with a chimp avatar?;)

Rickdb,

I wanted to comment on the current hiring window. You seem to be afraid that it will stop sometime soon. That is false. I want to dispell the rumor that this hiring window will stop anytime this DECADE!! Think about it. Right now all the regionals are hurting for pilots. Yet only 2 of the 6 legacy airlines are hiring! Just 2 of them. (United, Northwest, and US Air are gearing up to hire, but I don't believe they have started any classes, maybe United has, no one else). Imagine what happens when American, United, Northwest, and US Air begin to hire (in a few months, about 1.5 years for American). American and United are the world's largest airlines, and they are not hiring. Also, none of the legacy carriers are expanding. Air Travel is expected to double in by 2020. The legacy carriers will need to expand and then hiring will be amplified! Check out this link to my pilot shortage thread. Lots of good facts.
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/sh...ad.php?t=12901

Trust me. Don't worry about the hiring window closing on you. It will not close anytime this decade. Only a few of the majors are hiring, and there is currently a shortage. Imagine what will happen when they ALL start hiring in one year, and then expanding. Do not let this fear play into your decision. As some famous jedi once said, "Fear leads to the dark side." Don't let fear affect your decision! You will still be around for this hiring window. It is not going away any time soon. Don't waste $64,000 on training at ATP, when you can get the same training at a local FBO for about $35,000. Just look around a little bit.
Good luck.

SLICE, I can't believe I didn't go there for my multi. :-( I feel stupid.

Aerospace pilot,

Thanks for the insight. My buddy is a pilot for SkyWest and he told me gave me the same information you did. He told me this year their were only around 3000 pilots who got there commercial certificates. He also said that SkyWest is really hurting for pilots (FO's). As a result, he cant upgrade to CA until next year because they put a freeze on upgrades until 2008.

Thanks for the information. I appreciate it

I agree with most of the previous posters. The airlines will always be here. Get some good training, and build some good time - you will have some of the most fun you will ever have in an airplane. That doesn't mean it will take 5 or more years. I was at an airline within 3 years of getting my instrument rating, and had more than enough flight time to go wherever I wanted (regional wise).

Also, if you are not at a regional by the time you are 27 - who cares? There are PLENTY of new hires that are over 27.

I've been told the same thing about this hiring, all my professors at UofI were being told for the last 30 years that there would be a pilot shortage...well it's actually happening (slowing down for the holidays and then picking back up again)

almost half of the current pilots will be retiring in the next 10 years...someone correct me if that is skewed but thats what i've heard

If you do choose the ATP route... at least resist the urge to skip the CFI time to go straight to the airlines. The ATP curriculum goes by so fast it will make your head spin, and you will not really know your stuff until you have to teach it to someone else.

You might be able to do it at your local FBO too, as others have suggested, for the same or less money. If you choose that way instead, my advice is that you must make flying your first priority. If you do not plan to commit at least three lessons a week, you may be wasting time (=money) relearning stuff from previous lessons. Keep in mind weather and broken airplanes will affect your schedule too.

Good luck to you!

SAAB... thanks for bringing the monkey back...so much more kissable than the...yecchh!... yankee fan! :D

After I finish my training at ATP, I will instruct for them to build my hours to get either to XJT, SkyWest, or Republic

I don't know where you came from so I don't know what to say. I found out about it through word of mouth personally before the internet was big like today...

With your training (PPL-MEII), you are looking at 5 months. Afterwards, you can probably go one of two routes if I'm not mistaken. You could just instruct for approximately 5-10 months and build TT & ME, and then apply to the regionals, or you could successfully undertake and nail the RJ certification course and then instruct for 2-4 months and then apply to the regionals.

Choose whatever route that is comfortable and affordable to you.:cool:

Best wishes. blue skies.


atp