Future of the airline industry and regional hiring frenzy
 

I have a couple questions that I am looking for some opinions on. I am new to the forum, and considering becoming a professional pilot.

How long do you think the regional airlines will continue this hiring frenzy (i.e. through 2008, 2009, etc)?

What are the top 3 regional airlines out there, and which would you stay away from?

In your opinion, what does the future of the airline industry look like and why (i.e. positive, negative......)?

Im just looking for any feedback that can be provided.

Thank you for your input.

Regional hiring is driven by various factors:

Overall airline business growth: This is forcast to continue at a moderate pace for the forseeable future. Growth in the US will be slower than overseas.

Transfer of major airline flying to the regional level: This has been occuring at a rapid pace since 2002, but should start to slow in the next 2-3 years. Also this may be good in the short term for a wannabe pilot, but it it is bad in the longer term for all pilots...regional pilots get paid only 20-50% what major pilots get paid.

Retirements: Not a large factor at most regionals...there are not many people who are that old at the regionals. However many major airline pilots will retire in the next 5-10 years, which will cause hiring at both majors and regionals (most major pilots are hired from regionals). The retirement age will change from 60-65 in a year or two, which will slow hiring for a few years (2-3 years is my guess).

Major Economic or Terrorism Problems: Either of these could put 20,000 airline pilots in the unemployment line.

You have to pay attention to all of these things to determine hiring. Baring major catastrophe, I would assume that regional hiring due to growth will slow, but major airline hiring will increase due to retirements, keeping regional hiring at a modest, if not high level. At some point the age 65 thing will slow all hiring for 2-3 years (my guess in around 2009-2011).

The answer depends on what you want:

-Rapid upgrade to Captain (more money and usually necessary to move on to a major airline).

OR

-Good Pay and quality of life.

These regionals have relatively quick upgrade, decent quality of life and pay:
SkyWest
Republic (includes Chattaqua and Shuttle America)
Expressjet

These regionals have good QOL and pay, but longer upgrades:
Horizon
American Eagle
Air Wisconsin

Avoid these companies at all costs:
GoJet
Mesa (includes freedom and air midwest)

Personally I would avoid Trans States and Pinnacle also, but that's a judgement call.

Note: Commuting to work is hard...you might prefer working for a marginal company that has a large base in or near your home town as opposed to a great company that requires a commute for you.


I wish I knew th answer to that...it would make my own planning much easier. The industry (in the US) should continue to grow moderately for the next 20-30 years. However, it is very fragile and any of these things could cause either short term or long-term problems:

Recession/Depression
War
Terrorism
Oil Shortage (this WILL happen eventually...it may have already started.
Environmentalism

RickAir,

Thank you for your feedback. I really appreciate it. When you say regional airline hiring will slow down, what specifically do you mean (i.e. if 30/month are getting hired it will gradually decrease to about 10/month. You are right about Skywest and Republic. My friend is a pilot for Skywest and he likes it. I definitely want to upgrade to captain in two years or less, and potentially move on to a major airline. In a nut shell, I want to go to with a regional that has a good reputation, multiple bases (anything moderately close to ORD in Chicago. I dont mind commuting, unless it would be past the great plains region). I definitely would like to fly for one of the major carriers, but my first goal would be getting on a regional and upgrading to Captain in the shortest amount of time.

Thanks for you feedback. Any further thoughts you have I am "all ears".

Rick

Mesa for different reasons than GoJet- GoJet is staffed by scabs and it's an alter-ego whipsaw company. Mesa has good crews, but the company is a union buster. Plus, it won't take long to find info about all the lawsuits against us... Of course, Freedom used to be a scab company, but that has been solved since 2003.

Good luck!

Hard to guess on the exact amount of slowing, there are so many factors....but I would imagine that any regional who is hiring 60/month now will not be doing so in 2 years.

A 2 year (or less) upgrade really depends on BOTH growth (new airplanes) and pilot attrition (at the regionals this means captains getting hired by majors, not retirement). I don't see that lasting for long, except maybe at a few regionals which happen to have a lot of growth at that moment.

It is possible that as the mainline-to-regional flying transfer winds up in the next couple of years, that the age 65 change could significantly slow upgrades and hiring for a couple years.

You are in luck, though...several regionals operate out of ORD and MKE. Try to get hired by one.

Air Wisconsins Upgrade time is running about 2.5 years and decreasing. With talks of new bases opening up in Jan (LGA and RDU) QOL isnt terrible. And next to Horizon, we have the highest starting pay for any regional. Not to mention our contract is one of the best in the industry

Hi!

Boeing forecasts the need for 17,000 new airline pilots PER YEAR for the NEXT 20 years!.

India and China, as well as the rest of Asia, is a MASSIVE growth market, and is a major factor in the pilot shortage here in the US.

pprune.org is a great message board site to see what is going on worlwide.

Lots of US pilots are going to Asia, which is creating more demand here. One of my buddies is at AWAC, and as soon as he gets his CRJ type rating he's going to Asia as a DEC (Direct Entry Captain-called street captains here).

Good luck!

cliff
ABQ

The guy's considering to be a professional airline pilot...I hope he's calculating flight training into his timeline of 2 years to Captain. On that note (flight training that is), avoid the CAPT program down in Flagler, FL at all cost! They're so desperate they're trying to rip off the Indians and the Chinese these days with their smoke and mirrors road shows.

That is a good forecast from Boeing for pilots. I am planning on training at ATP. Does anyone have any feedback regarding that school. In regards to the question about upgrading to CA, my timeline doesnt include flight training. I was assuming anywhere from 2-4 yrs from the time I become an FO.

Oh boy, here we go. Are you rich? I suggest you find the loan repayment calculator on this site to see what those ratings are really going to cost you.

No, I'm not rich. I have gotten quotes from local flight schools and with some multi-engine time the cost is very similar. I am not going to take out loans to pay for the flight training. My parents are going to be the bank and I have to pay them back the capital + 5% interest. Better than any financing I have seen. Is ATP a legitimate place to train. It seems like they have good connections with some quality regional airlines.

Good luck to ya, just make sure your parents understand they are probably in for a long wait getting their money back.

I'm not a fan of the ACPP program at ATP, as you get all you go from PPL to CFI in 90 days and then turn around start teaching. Your local flight school maybe be just as good of a place to get your ratings through Commercial, then an ATP type of school for a rating or two. You can save a lot of money doing it this way and end up with better training, in some circumstances.

Flight training is 90 percent about you (attitude/desire), your CFI (experience), and an airplane (balance between cost/quality).

I wouldn't worry about "connections with quality airlines". If you put in your time to become a good pilot, you'll have the experience to get hired. In this day and age, connections are highly overrated.

Thanks for the feedback DE727ups. It seems like ATP has a pretty good deal. Some local flight schools quoted prices (ME time included) close to 60k. I was looking at ATP due to the speed of the program as well as quality aircraft. Timing is critical in the airline industry (as you probably well know), and I am just afraid that if I go to a local facility that it might take me 1-2 yrs and I will have missed the hiring cycle. By the way, congratulations on being CA at UPS. You are in a position alot of individuals would love to have.

One more question, in your opinion, do you think it is a good time to become a pilot, and is there a positive outlook for the future of the aviation industry?

Thanks for your feedback. Believe it or not, my career goal if I become a commercial pilot is to eventually fly for Fed-X or UPS.

www.prairieairservice.com, You and your parent's bank account can thank me later.:)

The fact that Boeing is making this observation (as opposed to Kit Darby or a big flight school :rolleyes: ) indicates that it may be based on some rational statistics.

But don't get too excited! The vast majority of those jobs will be overseas in places that don't hire Americans (Europe) or places that you might not want to live for long.

While there are always a few Americans willing to do the ex-pat thing, for most of us a US company is the only long-term option. Especially if you're married. Dubai is nice, but only for so long...

I'm pretty sure that's the first time I've ever heard the words 'Boeing' and 'rational' in the same sentence ;)

I think they might be making that statement from their aircraft orders (projected and actual) but I don't know.

Eeesh, I beg to differ:




Sounds phenomenal. Not only will you be required to be babysat the entire time by, literally, a backseat driver, but you have to pay for all of their expenses when out of town. Well, backseat until conditions might be scary, then you get to pay to sit in the back seat, and then you have to dry hump your fellow pilots while getting back into the front seat in the roomyness that is an Apache.

I can see it now:

"Engine failure! Ok ok, mixture props throttl" "NO! THIS IS AN EMERGENCY!! TIME FOR A TIME OUT IN THE BACK SEAT!!!"

Ick. Go where you want, and pay what you want, I will leave you with this little bit of advice. While almost all of the flight schools are over priced, ATP, in my opinion, has one of the less over priced plans, simply because they give you so much multi time. I never did it so I can't attest to the quality of their training beyond that the people who I've flown with from ATP seem to at least have a basic level of competence, which is not something that can be said about everybody.

Rick,

I have no experience with ATP, but take the projections and the "promises" they and ALL OTHER flight schools make with a huge grain of salt. They are selling a product, not giving career advice.

If you watch commercials, the medical industry will soon colapse unless YOU come to the Acme School of Medical File Clerking. Medical File Clercking is rapidly growing field.... and knowing that you are helping people is so rewarding Not to mention, You will be working with DOCTORS ;) In just a few short weeks... blah blah blah.

I instructed at a "Factory" flight school. It was outstanding at producing 71% private pilots (anything over 71% is overkill, right?). IF the student/new private pilot understood they were a 71 percenter and had a bunch to learn yet, they did just fine. NO school can teach you EVERYTHING.

One inherent down side of the super fast training, is you only experience one season in one location, very little bad weather, and almost no decision making..... though, the regionals don't seem to care.

To cut your costs some:
If you plan on getting instructor ratings, start flying from the right seat right after you get your private (and multi). I had some students who did this, and they eliminated about 80% of the usual dual time after the comercial ratings. I even had one outstanding student who scheduled his CFI, CFII, and MEI the day he got his Commericals. I only flew one more hour with him before those checkrides: he passed them all on the first attemp.
HUGE WORD OF WARNING: DO NOT SOLO From the RIGHT SEAT unless you have determined:
1) the flight school allows it
2) the INSURANCE Company allows it and will PAY, heaven forbid, you bend an airplane, and
3) the POH allows solo from the right seat

Flyjsh,

To be honest with you, ATP is the best priced school that I have come across. I live in Chicago, and pretty much all the flight schools quote a price of 30-40k for PPL through CFI. This doesnt include multi-engine time, jet training, etc. Im sure the quality of training is good, but it seems that ATP has a few more licenses and certificates in their program. Not to mention, it is a fixed stated cost. The flight schools provided quotes which could be more or less. Some of the flight schools in the chicagoland area quoted me prices of 65K total with about 50hrs of ME time. Regardless, flight training is very expensive. Thanks for the response

BoilerPilot did you go to Purdue University in West Lafayette, IN

As an outsider going into ATP for my CFI's, I can say that their training, in my opinion, left some to be desired...but this is true of most programs, just about anywhere, when you've just come out of a super-expensive Collegiate program.

I also Instructed there for a short-time, and though I don't think it's the best training in the world, I can tell you that I never once doubted that they wouldn't live up to their promises. They certainly did for me...can't say as much for anywhere else I've been!

Good luck in whatever you choose - remember - ALL ROADS lead to Rome ;-P

Does anyone have a prediction on when the regionals will cool down or even halt their hiring?

This hiring frenzy will slow-down...most Regionals, I believe, are at or near optimum staffing levels by years end...

Though hiring for growth will slow down across the board, hiring for attrition (somewhat slower than growth), will increase...

It's still a good time to get in. Don't wait!

Hmm, I see I've touched a nerve. Well, I won't respond in kind, however, I will say that if you take a look at my post and at my previous posts you'll find that I'm not a zero to hero guy (a term that didn't even exist before the last year or two, with the possible exception of Gulfstream International). Yes, I did go to Purdue, but I fail to see how that is a bad thing. Last time I checked, Purdue had a couple of tens of thousands of students and hundreds of thousands of graduates, and we can't ALL be bad.

I didn't get an airline job when I graduated, I got a flight instructor job, which I went through for a couple years until I got the time so that I could go to a place that was hiring and that I could stand flying for.

How many years ago was that? Does it really matter? I CHOOSE not to put my actual title next to my name, because I prefer not to say something that might reflect poorly on myself or my company. I prefer to let my words and opinions speak for themselves. Of course, some people jump to conclusions and assume that just because I didn't outright attack ATP, it must mean that I'm a "zero to hero". I've seen a lot of pilots come through from a lot of different programs, including FBOs. I was initially trained at a Mom and Pop FBO all the way up to about 100 hours, which I paid for out of my own pocket working over the summer. I've seen the most incredible pilots you've ever seen come from Universities, FBOs, dedicated training programs, military, hundreds of hours of instructing or 91 flying, 135 pilots, 121 pilots, etc etc etc, and I've seen the worst pilots you could imagine come from each and every one of these.

As you'll see from some of my other posts, I couldn't care less where you come from or how good you look on paper. And frankly, it's not my right to judge you based on my own subjective opinions of these methods. Earn my respect and I'll give it to you, I don't care if you have 200 hours or 2000 hours or 20000 hours.

People who complain about JetU and ATP etc etc can complain all they want, but the fact is that people ARE getting hired from them. In the risky business of pilot hiring, seeing that a student went from zero to hero at LEAST proves that they can learn in a fast paced environment. It has nothing to do with the fact that the pilots produced in these factories are better pilots, it's simply about mitigating your risks, one big one of which happens to be candidates not being able to drink enough of the fire hose. Yes, a lot of it is marketing hype generated by these companies. Well, they're businesses. Since the training school you provided a link to specializes in paying for multi time building, I can only assume that they are geared towards helping people realize the dream of becoming a professional pilot, wherever that may take them. Because of this focus, would it hurt to say "Hey, we provide a 100% learning environment where you actually learn the plane rather than a 71% learning environment to get you to the airline on as little knowledge as possible."? Or the age old (slightly cliche) testimonial? That's up to them to decide.

I have two more points, the first one being rather short: Your reaction to my simple statement about the instructor in the back all the time suggests you have something vested in this company, whatever that may be. I'm sorry if I irritated you or offended you or somebody you know, it was most certainly not my intention. I was simply remarking on the feelings that I got when I read the time building page (multi time building being one of ATPs saving graces, something like 200 hours). That being said, we're all entitled to our opinions, and if I say something sarcastic, I don't expect to be denigrated, just like if you say something sarcastic, you shouldn't expect me to start insulting you about things that have nothing to do with the conversation.

Lastly, I can't help but shake my head at people who feel, honestly, nothing but malice towards low time pilots who are getting a job. Yes, they had it easier than us getting into the industry. Yes, they had a choice of whether or not they wanted to flight instruct. Yes, they aren't having to (or won't have to, depending on where they are in their career) toil for years in airplanes that are arguably unsafe before they can go on to flying for a major or go ex-pat. But you're forgetting one thing: all these people are underneath you. Your current captain-ship, or recent hire to a top tier regional or major, your relative job security because of your seniority: all of it is being "funded" by those below you. The "race to the bottom" because of people going to Mesa, TSA, Gulfstream, etc etc etc? Well, the whole airline industry, with a few exceptions, is in a race to the bottom. Yes, in the old days, 90 seat jets were mainline material, and at mainline you wouldn't have FOs making $25-35k a year flying said jets. But the same can be said for mainline pilots. Aren't they in a race to the bottom when they're willing to sacrifice their pensions and take huge pay cuts simply to continue flying? Who would have thought a 747-400 FO at UA would settle for $130k a year? Isn't that about the same cost for the pilot per seat as a regional pilot making $25-35k? I'm not saying it's a perfect example by any means, but it's still a sobering comparison, in my opinion.

Who cares where somebody got their hours? They're below you on the seniority list, and whether they know it or not, they're helping to advance your career. Who cares where somebody goes to work? You think that a bottom feeder's wages really has that much to do with yours? You're kidding yourself if you think that. Look at the "quality" regionals out there. They have extremely competitive wages and still manage to turn profits. Like it or not, this whole industry is in a race towards the bottom, and by alienating pilots who go to a "bottom feeder", people who choose to pay to get all their hours instead of getting them through job experience, or people who go to University flight programs, all we're doing is dividing ourselves and making it easier for management to degrade our working conditions more. We're focusing our attention on the wrong things here.

Very, very well said...it's something I completely agree with you upon, though I have never been able to pinpoint exactly why I felt that way...You've cleared it up. Thanks for the great post.

Also, I'd like to stop seeing bashing of CFI's going to Mesa and the likes (initially)...it's just another way of paying their dues...and if they can get into the industry and quickly realize (as I did), that there are better things out there to work for, all the better to them. Let's face it - 90% of us just wanted to fly Jets as a CFI. What the hell is wrong with that?! Nothing...Brings me to my second-point. Who can reasonably expect a CFI to understand the incredibly fluid and dynamic industry that we call the Regionals, without actually being inside?? It's like asking a homeless man to explain the intricacies and inner-workings of the Galileo space telescope (or to ask me about the inner-workings of the female mind, but THAT is another subject entirely LoL). The only human way to treat our future airline pilot's is to educate them (with tact, not name calling), not bash them...and that includes those who chose to go to the low-end PFT deals.

I went to Purdue as well Boilerpilot. That is why I asked. Lived at 116 W Fowler avenue, and had a great time there.

Experimental when you say the hiring frenzy will slow down, what do you mean (i.e. instead of hiring 30 pilots a month they will hire 10 pilots a month). Please clarify if you can.

Thanks!

Exactly...hiring anything over 30 Pilots a month is staffing for either incredible attrition, or more likely, growth. When growth slows (which it will soon), attrition will stablize in the short term at 20-40 a month (IMHO) until the Majors kick into full-swing.

From what I hear (jumpeating and such), many Pilots won't be sticking around Mainline until 65 - they've had it...don't think it will slow down Regional attrition too much.

Thanks for the information. I have one more question. Does the hiring outlook for the next few years look positive, and if so would you get into the industry if you were in my shoes?

Thanks

Like others have said, barring any unforseen nightmare like another 9/11, it is still a fantastic time to get in...Don't delay - seniority is everything LoL

Thanks I know it is.....

I don't know how it turned into a ATP ad since you've never been there and that was not the point of my post. Point is they can get you your ratings fast but they are over priced...by say $20-25K and you are being taught to pass the checkride and only the checkride. He could get his ratings as several different places, buy a twin, and still come out ahead of the deal when he sold it.
I have no affiliation with PAS other than being a former patron and have nothing to gain by others money spent there. They offer a good product at a fair price and that is why I endorse them.

Well Boiler Up and let's up this weekend's game against Michigan is better than the OSU game was!

I lived right down the block from you, 314 W Fowler, last time I was in town, I was pleased that though it had new siding, it was still standing! You never know when they'll turn those premium across the street from campus houses into apartments.

He asked for people's opinions about ATP, I gave him mine. Whether or not my opinion is right doesn't really matter, and is up to rickdb to decide.
Well, that's not "no affiliation" but that's also a perfectly good reason to endorse them. Maybe next time instead of calling me a jackass you can say "Hey, it may not sound like the coolest thing in the world, but I was a former customer, and aside from enjoying his company, I have to say that I really learned a lot from having an 18000 hour A&P instructor engineer looking over my shoulder and essentially giving me free instruction." Had you put it like that, I would have said "You know, you're right, I'm sorry that I put down something that wasn't familiar to me." and we could have avoided that whole boring rant from me.

And speaking as a person who would defend "my" Mom and Pop FBO (I use the term literally) to the death, I am sorry if I offended you.

EDIT:
Oh, and maybe we can all learn from this and not jump down people's throats and/or insult something that we have little or no knowledge over? These forums would be a lot more constructive without people being sarcastic jackasses like me.

Fair enough, sorry if I was a jackass in my response. :o I didn't do the timebuilding thing there...I don't even think it existed back then and don't know how often they do it now. I did go IFR thru MEI back in the day. So he was next me rather than in the back. Group hug everbody.:D

I know what you mean...I dont think that all the houses are going to be converted. My senior year, they tore two houses down across the street and put up apartments. They played horrible against OSU. By the what year did you graduate?

"As an outsider going into ATP for my CFI's, I can say that their training, in my opinion, left some to be desired..."

You hear that a lot at this site. I think it's a product of cramming to much into a short time.

"in your opinion, do you think it is a good time to become a pilot"

Yes, if you really want to fly for a living and wouldn't be happy doing anything else. It's not the job it used to be, though, and the really good jobs are few and far between.

I'm not the most up beat person when it comes to this industry, but I sense this hiring trend will be here for a good period time to come. There has been a major major shift in the way the industry works,things have changed- there is more than just a hiring cycle going in here. Kids are not learning to fly any more, cats outa the bag- everyone knows how cost prohibitive flight training is and it's just not a desired career path anymore....that being said, if you can stay debt free or close to it, enjoy flying- never ever been a better time to get in.

I definitely understand where you are coming from with ATP. With their fast track program (90 days), it does seem like it is cramming alot of information into a small timeframe. With that being said, I think it is still possible to go through a program like that and be a "good pilot". I think it just depends on the individual, but I definitely understand your point of view. Timeframe is of utmost importance to me, so I am looking for the fastest, cost effective, and most efficient route out there.

In regards to the job isnt like it used to be, I have been told that by many individuals. Pilots used to be treated as kings, now they are treated like crap.

Thanks for the insight.