Future
 

Regional hiring should continue for a little while longer, however the good jobs will continue to be difficult to get.

Over the next 15 years the majors will need 1500 to 2000 pilots per year to replace retirements. Each year there are almost 10,000 new commercial pilots issued and over 2500 fixed wing military pilots trained.

It is possible to get on with the majors however the odds are slim and will continue to be so. A more likely destination is as a career regional pilot, fly overseas or to spend a career as a LCC pilot.

In any case pay industry wide is half of what it was 15 to 20 years ago and seems destined to halve again in the future. Work rules continue to decline in the shadow of slimming profit margins.

The proliferation of regional airlines means that there are fewer of the better jobs. Minimums at the regional level are going down while they continue to go up at better LCC and Major airlines. At any one time it is common for a major airline to have 10,000 to 20,000 qualified applications on file for less than 500 possible jobs per year.

UPS, I have read, has applications from over 1000 sitting RJ Captains with more than 1000 hours of part 121 PIC. In addition they also have military, LCC large jet captains, corporate jet captains and turbo-prop captains.

Regional jobs will be easy to get for a little while however the odds are that it will be most pilots first and last airline job. The pay and working conditions are far worse than in past generations however if you don't know what life was like for pilots in the past then perhaps you will not care.

My personal belief is that most regional pilots reach the left seat and acquire their 1000PIC only to come to the slow realisation that they are still a long way from a good job and quit to pursue new careers outside of aviation.

Most of the hiring at the regional level is from growth, a few go on the the majors and the rest from attrition of pilots who have given up. The skills and determination to make it to the left seat of a regional airliner are worth much more to the outside world.

SkyHigh

I agree as long as you have the luxury of time on your side. If I were 27 again, yeah...I would do the FBO thing. However, since me and a few hundred or maybe even thousands of "atpwannabes" (no pun intended), who are in their late 30's to early & mid 40's...IMHO, I believe the flight academy/school is the way to go. Choose wisely though as to which academy/school you wish to attend.


atp

Rickdb, atpwannabe, and anyone else considering ATP,

Training at ATP IS NOT faster than training at an FBO. The nice part about training at an FBO is you can train at ANY pace you want. So if you want to get your instrument-MEI in 89 days, you can do that (faster than ATP). If you want to get your instrument-MEI in 120, you can do that. 10 months, you can do that. Want to take a weekend off to go skiing? Want to take a weekend off to spend with your wife/family/gf/friends, you can do that. At an FBO, you set the pace. There is nothing saying you cannot go as fast or FASTER than training at ATP. The pace is up to you.

When you ask an FBO how long it takes to go from private to MEI, they will quote you how long people usually take to get those ratings, going at their OWN pace. That is why there is this vicious rumor that training at an FBO is slow. Honestly, if you want to fly two 1.5 hour lessons each day (3hrs a day), you can go private to MEI in 90 days (as opposed to the 150 days as quoted by ATP). Personally I think both of these are way too fast. While I realize you are a little older, take your time with flight training. You are paying tens of thousands of dollars for it, you should at least LEARN IT. If you do the 150 day fast track at ATP, you will not learn everything that you should. And this will come back to haunt you at some point in your flying career.

If you train at a local FBO instead of ATP, you will save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS. My estimate for training at a local FBO with reasonable prices is about $35,000. You don't believe me, then send me some rates at your local FBO (1980 C-152, C-172, Piper Warrior, some complex airplane, Piper Seminole, or related aircraft), tell me how much instructor costs, tell me what the monthly dues/joining fees are, and I will give you a darn good estimate. And I believe it will be close to $35,000. At ATP, you will pay $64,000 for the EXACT SAME flight training. That's an extra $29,000 you don't have to spend. Lets think of some things you can buy with that extra $29,000 you will save from NOT going to ATP.
Take a two week trip to Europe.
Buy a new iPhone and service plan
Buy a brand new flat screen plasma TV
Buy a brand new top of the line computer
Eat out at a fancy restaurant once a week for an entire year
Take a 7 day cruise in the carribean
And still have over $10,000 left over to spend at your discretion.

Don't throw away $29,000 extra to get the same flight training you can receive at a local FBO.

Go to a local FBO. Train at your own pace. Fly when you want and don't fly when you don't want to. ATP should not own you. A local FBO does not own you. You can make your decision about how fast you want to train. I say take about 8 months (instead of 5 months at ATP). Soak in that knowledge. Enjoy your training. And above all, save TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS

I totally disagree with you about the time frame. It is almost impossible to get all those ratings at an FBO in even remotely close to 90 days. (private not included) I have tried it. In order to save all that money, you need safety pilots, and safety pilots are a pain in the you know what to find on a regular basis, unless you get totally lucky and find others in the same boat that have the same time frames as you. Otherwise, you need to pay an instructor to ride with you to get the hood time. Plus if you look at the cost and effort it takes to build ME time, ATP's prices aren't really all that bad. I'm not trying to advertise for them, and I know it really is alot of money to pay, but for the structure and ME time, it's really not THAT bad. flight training is expensive no matter where you go.

We had several at my local FBO. They would fly twice a day and have all of their ratings and decent time in less than a year (including instructing a little to build time). All it takes is about $30,000 - $50,000 in loans and some serious dedication.

I know I will get flamed for this, but here is goes:
The best part about flying at a local FBO is that odds are you will be flying with a quality CFI who got his/her ratings over a long period of time and has some good experience to offer. At ATP odds are you will be flying with somebody with very little experience, and is ONLY there to build time so that he/she can get in the right seat of a sexy regional jet. He/she doesn't really care about the quality of instruction that he/she is providing.

At the flight school I worked at, many of the students who wanted to blow through their ratings did it with some of our very best career CFIs. Our philosophy was that we need our very best CFIs to teach people that fast. One of them was 70 years old and has been a CFI since he was 19 and is a retired airshow pilot. Try finding somebody with that experience level at ATP - you won't. Flame away

I have no doubt that SOME FBO's can train as fast as ATP, and at less cost, agreeing with Aerospacepilot's post. You'd need to have a large fleet that included two or three twins, a large pool of CFI's, and a place where there will be no weather delays.

There is nothing special about how ATP operates, they are a big part 61 flight academy using 172's and Seminoles and have figured out how to get people to min standards as fast as possible. What they do at ATP could be done anyplace that can put a heavy emphasis on multi time.

The ATP owners fly around in a Citation giving "high altitude endorsements", they aren't stupid, but somebody is paying for that...

"The best part about flying at a local FBO is that odds are you will be flying with a quality CFI who got his/her ratings over a long period of time and has some good experience to offer. At ATP odds are you will be flying with somebody with very little experience..."

I agree. If I was at an FBO, I'd seek out a guy with some time. At ATP, the guy might be a gold seal but he still has never seen life outside the academy and has only been a CFI for three months. He also might be a guy who was a PPL 90 days ago.

That's my problem with ACPP. It's one thing to accelerate your training. It's another to take that and jump into instructing hard core. The FAA licenses and ratings are very much a license to learn. You can't expect much from a CFI who just got his "licenses to learn" in 90 days and now is your CFI.

There is nothing wrong with accelerated training. The problem comes when you don't take the time, between ratings, to use them, and gain experience from real world situations.

aerospacepilot:

First, let me point out that my post addressed the fact that this young man had the luxury of time/age on his side. I believe he's in his late 20's.

Personally, I would have considered an FBO, however, if I'm not able fly when I'm ready or an a/c is not available, then we've got a problem. On the other hand, I'm walking in the door of ATP with a Cashier's Check for the entire amount. They will deliver what they promised and I'm eager to get started.

Now in terms of being able to keep up with the rapid ground school & flight lesson plans...well, if I attended & graduated from ERAU ('82-'87) back when Spring Break was SPRING BREAK:cool:...then I shouldn't have a problem @ ATP. Dedication, commitment & staying the course will have to become a part of anyone looking to complete ATP's flight training in the prescribed time frame that is advertised.

As far as what I can do with that extra money, well I'm very fortunate and grateful to be in the financial position I'm in. Also, having a wife that has two master's degrees and capable of working at the Administrative level of any school district in this country.....PRICELESS!!!!!:)

Remember...steady Eddie wins the race!!!!


atp

You hit it right on the head!

I used ATP for my MEI. I liked how they taught that particular course and I still train most multi-pilots using their way. It works. However, it simply isn't for everyone. I say train at your local FBO and ENJOY IT.

I went IFR thru MEI in 11 weeks and came out with 60 hours of multi for $16,000 in 1994 dollars. It can be done. Never used a safety pilot in the process.

Aerospace Pilot,

I definitely understand where you are coming from. My friend who is a pilot for SkyWest said dont believe flight schools who tell you that you cannot complete your training in a relatively short period because they are just trying to milk more money out of your pocket. However, like I said before the only reason I am looking at ATP is because of the ME hours and cost. No flight school here in Chicago quoted me a price (with as many ME hours) nearly as competitive as ATP. I asked my friend who is a pilot at SkyWest, and he said ATP is a good school, and pretty competitive on price. If I were to go to an FBO in another state than I would have to pay rent (ATP includes housing in their price) and that would cost me extra money. Thanks for the insight, but after doing my due dilligence, ATP has a pretty good deal. At local flight schools I was quoted the following:

Palwaukee Flyers Deerfield, IL-$35-45K-0 to CFI (No ME instructor or rating)
API Flight School-Chicago, IL-40K-0 to CFI (they only fly single engine aircraft)
Windy City Flyers-Palwaukee Airport-$57k-0 to CFI (Maybe 35 ME hours)
American Flyers-Dupage Airport-$67K-0 to CFI (50 ME hours)

ATPs cost from "0-hero" is 64K and includes the following:
single/ME-commercial rating
single/ME instructor
regional jet training
housing
books, flight plans, etc
PPL through CFI
Total of 190 ME hours

Regardless, the training to become a pilot is expensive. Based on the information I provided, do you see where I am coming from.

I gotta step in here, I know when I was an instructor, myself as well as the owner of my flight school, made it crystal clear that there is no set time for a license and we "guarantee" you nothing. Some people may take longer to learn certain things and I think you would be doing them a great disservice just to get them done. How an instructor can sign someone off for a solo, or check-ride who is not ready is beyond me. Some people seem to forget that if and when your students engine quits, when his family is in the back, its your training that hes is going to rely on, cause as cheesy as it sounds, their life may depend on it! You have to wonder about a school that "guarantees" you anything other than a safe a/c and a knowledgeable instructor. How can you say someone will be ready in a fixed amount of time, its flying an airplane..............

Not to argue with with you SAAB.. but the military has a set schedule... meet it or wash out. Very little slack in the schedule in the time when I went thru...so yes I think schedules can be met..... course the difference is.... how many guys have FBO's washed out cause they just couldnt hack it? VERY few I would suggest... they just keep flying on the hopes they will GET it some day.... Hell I recently was at a flight school and there was a student there who was on HOUR 33 before he soloed a C172........

In terms of military I agree 100%, but like you said, either you can cut it, or you cant, but when it comes to the local FBO, or even the "pilot factories" I think its a different story........

If they're not ready, won't they most likely fail the checkrides? It is my understanding that in the 90 day program, you eat, drink, and sleep flying the whole time, and if it goes over by a few days, or if you have to go over the 200 hours, then they allow for that. My friend that went to ATP said that there was a student that just wasn't soaking in the information, so they ended up asking him to leave and refunded most of his money. The instructors there are still instructors, so I'm sure they won't be signing people off that are not ready since they know it goes on their record. Plus, how many incidents have there been of ATP grads screwing up in the 121 world? I'm sure not more than average. (I guess that can't be proven, so it's a moot point) The argument can be made that it's up to the individual. The school itself teaches what it needs to teach, it's up the pilot to use it wisely, and that includes not being a hero when you finally get hired on as an FO at a 121 job.

Are you telling me you can't find a better deal than $336 per hour to fly a twin? (64000/190)

1) Well, thats because there are Captains babysitting these 500hr F/O's
2) There is more to flying than being a 121 pilot............

PS this has nothing to with ATP graduates, just the mentality that the minimum is "all you need"

That is not all that is involved in the equation. Even if the I went to a local FBO here in Chicago, then I would have to deal with weather (i.e. tons of snow and freezing rain) which would extend my "fast track". Not to mention, aircraft available and maintenance of that aircraft. With ATP I at least know the exact cost, know that they have the aircraft available, and have multiple locations across the country that I can choose from so weather isnt that much of a factor. I understand that I am going to have to learn to fly in different types of weather, but I dont want the unpredictable Chicago weather to cause a delay in my training and goals. Right now my ultimate goal is to fly for a legacy airline, however, in the future that goal might change. I wouldnt mind staying at a regional for my career (having seniority, making 80-100k, and having a good QOL). If I have the opportunity to be offered a position at a major, then at that moment I will decide if it is worth it. My first career goal as a pilot is to get on board with a quality regional carrier (i.e. XJT, SkyWest, or Republic), and then I will go from there. Thanks for your insight and feedback. I appreciate and listen to everyone's opinion.

It sounds like ATP is the place for you. But do yourself a great favor and look in to all available options thoroughly. Look in to everything from the guy that owns a plane at the FBO that instructs all the way up to Embry Riddle and everything in between. Before you commit $100k+ and a significant chunk of the rest of your life make sure you are 110% sure that you are going the right way for you.

I'm not saying that going to ATP isn't the best way for you, just use every available resource (Including this and other pilot forums and other pilots that you meet in person) to reinforce your decision.

But isn't that what usually happens when somebody that has never flown 121 before gets a job as a FO? yes, instructing for a long time will get you more experience flying and perhaps expose you to more situations, but it won't teach you a thing about 121. you're right, 121 isn't everything, but it's a goal.

Spartan07,

Thanks for the advice. I am definitely looking at all available options. I have been doing my research for the last few months in order to make an informed decision. Not only have I been researching flight schools, but I also have been researching which regionals are quality, as well as, the overall health of the aviation industry. If someone wants to become a pilot, I think this is the time to get in.

Thanks for the advice

How do you know what it teaches about 121? You haven't done either correct? 121 is a set of regs...anyone can read a book. Experience gained by CFIing, hauling checks single pilot, etc., is what airline flying is about. It's about decision making skills and having a clue bag to draw from when the 'script' isn't followed. A 500 hour guy doesn't have it(or very, very little) because of lack of exposure. So, yes the other flying done prior to the 121 job does make one a better 121 pilot.

"but it won't teach you a thing about 121"

What's this stuff I gotta know about 121?

More time in the air experiencing more things makes one a better, more well rounded, pilot. An airplane is an airplane. The more time you have the better off you'll be when you become an airline pilot.

Nope, I haven't. As stated earlier, I'm not a professional pilot. I am only trying to find out what you guys think about certain things. I have been told by pilots that instructing won't teach you a thing about the 121 world, that is why I mentioned it. Thanks for clarifying with your input. I'm not trying to pretend that I know what's up, I am just trying to learn, like many others.

"I have been told by pilots that instructing won't teach you a thing about the 121 world"

Sounds like something Skyhigh would say.

I'd traslate that to mean "instructing is a waste of time if you can get a regional job sooner than later". This is a popular belief. And I'm all for moving up the career ladder ASAP. But not at the expense of putting a well qualified warm body in the right seat. Flight instructing is one way of expanding one's experience level to become a better jet F/O.

Better?
 

Better for whom? The company? The captain? or for the pilot who is trying to get a difficult career off the ground. In a few months time on the line it is difficult to tell the guy who wasted time as a CFI from the one who took the job at the earliest opportunity except for seniority.

Aviation is not a glorious profession that rewards skill and knowledge. The only thing that matters is luck, seniority, management and who your daddy is.

Getting there fast makes all the difference.

SkyHigh

I would appreciate it if you would stop refering to instructing as a "waste of time". Without instructors, nobody would be a pilot right now.

Instructing
 

There are plenty of instructors out there. In fact right now there are more CFI's then there are students to teach. The industry does not require any martyrdom from anyone. The question is do you wish to be an airline pilot or flight instructor?

Pilots fly instructors teach. Just because someone taught me how to read doesnt mean that I am now duty bound to become a school teacher. Besides most CFI's are not good and natural teachers.

Often people become an instructor for the ego stroke. If that is the case in the long run it will hurt your airline hopes.

In reference to an airline career if you can skip the CFI route and then don't then it is a needless diversion and as such a "waste of time".

Those who can do the rest teach.

SkyHigh

...or quit and go build houses.:rolleyes:

"In fact right now there are more CFI's then there are students to teach. "

This is simply not true. There may be more "licensed" CFI's than "Licensed" student pilots, but the majority of those CFI's are doing other jobs (121, 135, etc), and are not actively instructing. The regional hiring frenzy has sucked up most CFI's, and many flight schools (including the one I teach at) are DESPERATE for CFI's. So much so, in fact, that we've just had our pay scale raised to $28/hour, not bad for a 141 CFI.

We have 42 airplanes, and 36 CFI's. We are turning students away to work on core classes (Degree/flight program), because we simply don't have enough instructors to keep our planes flying. And, we are losing an average of 6 CFI's per month, while hiring an average of 2 per month.

There is a coming qualified pilot shortage.

"In reference to an airline career if you can skip the CFI route and then don't then it is a needless diversion and as such a "waste of time"."

Furthermore, I strongly disagree with this statement. I currently have just over 500 TT, 75 Multi, and a highly desirable (To regionals) Jet course under my belt. I can easily leave now and go to a regional. A lot of my colleagues have left for regionals with 100 hours less than I have. However, I CHOSE to become a CFI and instruct for a year before doing this. The reason... I want to build experience. If you deny the fact that a pilot becomes infinitely more skilled by teaching, then you are sadly misguided. I feel that I have a talent for teaching, I enjoy it, and I feel that I am gaining as much as my students are from the experience. I want to begin my airline career alright, but I also don't want to be a burden on my captains, and a safety hazard for my passengers. And extra year of experience teaching someone to fly can only help.

"I CHOSE to become a CFI and instruct for a year before doing this. The reason... I want to build experience."

A year? Dude, if you are at ATP, then I commend you. If they all did that, then I'd have nothing bad to say about the place.

Teaching
 

Actually I am considering teaching again. I am still a current CFII-MEI. Just last weekend I had a long conversation with a guy from a large and fancy flight school about my coming to work for them as a part time CFI.

However if I had my choice I would much rather be doing something else in aviation but instructing seems like the only thing right now that would let me design my own schedule.

Skyhigh

Instructor
 

The only one who is loosing out is yourself. No one really knows if this regional hiring thing will continue. Oil could hit $100 a barrel and then you would be left out in the cold while your friends have cushy regional jobs. They would have careers and would be building turbine time. You could be stuck as a CFI and virtually worthless to the industry.

It wasn't very long ago when the regionals wanted 1500 minimum and were hiring at 3000. Things can change on a dime. It is foolish to wait. Perhaps you are nurchuring a confidence problem? Often instructors like to hide in the safety of the flight school rather than to take the abuse of being the new guy at the next rung in the ladder.

Perhaps your friends can help you get a job in the future but you are doing yourself no favors today.

Skyhigh

It wasn't Skyhigh that said this to me. I have never talked to Skyhigh, but I do read his posts. It was my old instructor from LZU. He instructed for 14 months, and when he finally got hired on to express, he told me that he could have instructed for 1 month and still have the same knowledge because once you get into 121, everything is different. Flying at FL340, more congested radios, tighter schedules, complex airplanes and regs.. blah blah blah.. That is why I brought it up. Like I said, I am not commercial yet, so I was merely trying to get input from you guys.

Sadly, your instructor was a useless pile of meat in the cockpit if he did not gain anything more after 1 month of instructing - I find that hard to believe. Odds are it was just a cocky statement to make himself feel like a bada$$.

As had been said before, 121 is just a set of regs, not too much different from part 91, that anybody can read from a book. As for flying in the flight levels, its just like flying at 5000 feet, only there are no VFR guys up there and the radios are less congested. Oh yea, when you check in, you get to sound cool by saying "flight level......" WOW!

Not ATP, WMU.

If oil hits $100 a barrel, many of my friends will be right back next to me instructing again.

Its the other way around in fact. I think those with SJS have more of a confidence problem. Again, I enjoy instructing because I feel I am a good teacher, and I feel that I am learning a lot. I never said or acted like I know everything, even in front of my students. In fact, not being able to answer some of the students questions makes me better because I go and research it myself. I'm in no way afraid of going to a regional, in fact our Jet course is far more rigorous than any regional's indoc training, and I passed it with flying colors.

I'd like to have a diverse aviation background to give a variety of experience that I can call upon if something does go wrong. Plus, I don't want to be that guy who's career can be summed up by: "I got my ratings and went to Horizon, and that's my career." I have the experience of flying skydivers in a 1956 182, in which the carb heat knob fell out in my hand once. I have the experience of instructing in state of the art glass cockpit trainers. I have the experience of being a copilot on some 135 charter flights in big twins. And I have the experience of taking the jet course. Who would you want in your right seat, me or that other guy? More importantly, who would I want in MY right seat when that time comes, and the sh$t hits the fan?

"Just last weekend I had a long conversation with a guy from a large and fancy flight school about my coming to work for them as a part time CFI."

Don't let the college recruiter know about your second life as an internet "aviation career" basher. I once went to one of their talks at a high school and they had, even me, thinking they were trying way to hard to sell the career to the kids. Stuff about the pilot shortage, everyone retiring, special hiring with the local regional, blah, blah. This was about four years ago.

For us bus drivers, it's the location of the best restaurant in each terminal. For you, I guess it would be which break room has the best cookies. :)

I Predicted it about a week back - SkyHigh would fly for Ca$h again!!!

Good luck in all you do Sky...

Just having fun ;)